In this research, the duration of exposure of unprotected skin required for the synthesis of 1000 IU of vitamin D3 (1000D3), along with the associated risk of erythema, was examined for Novi Sad (45.33° N, 19.85° E, 84 m asl) and Kopaonik (43.28° N, 20.80° E, 1710 m asl) (Serbia) in the period 2004–2020. A novel model for estimating hourly ultraviolet radiation doses from daily values was proposed. The focus was on data around local noon (10:00 and 15:00 h CET), skin types II and III, and four age groups (0–21, 22–40, 41–59, 60+). The analysis showed that from April to September, most individuals can expose their skin to sunlight enough to produce 1000D3 without exceeding the erythema threshold. Nevertheless, during February, March, October, and November, most age groups have a greater risk of erythema prior to achieving 1000D3. However, in the winter months, the exposure required to obtain 1000D3 frequently exceeds the level at which erythema can develop. Moreover, during January and December, even spending up to five hours in the sun is insufficient for most individuals to reach the 1000D3. It is also noted that levels of hourly erythema and vitamin D3 doses are higher in Kopaonik than in Novi Sad, likely due to the higher elevation. Therefore, the exposure time for causing erythema is shorter in Kopaonik. However, due to a smaller body exposure area, the exposure time required to achieve the 1000D3 is longer in Kopaonik than in Novi Sad, while sub-erythemal vitamin D3 synthesis windows are very close, except during winter.
Scorpionism has emerged as a growing public health concern in Brazil, characterized by increasing incidence and geographic expansion. Despite this trend, studies integrating climatic drivers and advanced time-series modeling remain limited. This study aims to analyze the temporal dynamics, spatial diffusion, and climate–disease relationships of scorpion sting incidence in Brazil using a nationwide dataset from 2007 to 2025. Monthly scorpion sting data from SINAN/DATASUS were combined with high-resolution climatic variables from the TerraClimate dataset. Descriptive statistics, seasonal analysis, and lagged correlation were applied to explore temporal patterns. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to quantify the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature and precipitation on scorpion sting incidence. The results revealed a pronounced non-linear increase in scorpionism, with a structural breakpoint around 2011 indicating accelerated expansion. Seasonal patterns showed higher incidence between September and November. Lag analysis demonstrated that temperature had the strongest association with incidence, peaking at a one-month lag (r ≈ 0.57), while precipitation exhibited weaker but delayed effects. DLNM results confirmed significant non-linear and lag-dependent relationships, with elevated temperatures associated with increased risk at short lag periods. Scorpionism in Brazil is a climate-sensitive and dynamically evolving epidemiological system, driven by the interaction of environmental variability and urban expansion. These findings highlight the need for integrated, climate-informed public health strategies and predictive modeling approaches to mitigate future risk.
Taiwan’s national reference for outdoor thermal comfort assessment originates from a single non-urban site in a Cfa zone, whereas the country’s most heat-vulnerable metropolitan areas lie in the Cwa zone. Conventional thermal comfort evaluations rely on single standardized scales, which may not fully reflect variation across different climates and outdoor contexts. This study employed the modified physiologically equivalent temperature (mPET) thermal index as a thermal comfort indicator and established a regionally adaptive and mPET-based thermal perception scale suitable for Taiwan’s Cwa climate. Field studies were conducted in two representative Cwa sites—Zhongxing New Village and the Central Taiwan Science Park—and encompassed seven outdoor spaces with distinct spatial functions and microclimatic characteristics. Microclimatic measurements, questionnaire surveys, and user count observations were considered to examine the relationships among thermal conditions, thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and spatial behavior. The results indicate that a neutral temperature for these sites is 23.3 °C mPET and that a 90
The climatic conditions and thermal comfort are crucial for the development, marketing, and sustainability of tourism activities in a destination. Ohrid, North Macedonia, has become a popular destination in recent years. This study aims to determine the destination’s suitability for tourism and the impacts of climate change. The Holiday Climate Index (HCI: Urban and HCI: Beach) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) were employed. The HCI has three components: thermal, aesthetic, and physical. The UTCI is composed of four primary meteorological variables and two human/non-meteorological factors. The monthly average index scores were calculated, and the most suitable months for tourism in Ohrid and the impacts of climate change on tourism were determined. Correlations between the thermal comfort indices and the tourism indicators (foreign tourist arrivals and nightly stays) were examined. All three indices showed significant relationships with the tourism indicators on a yearly basis, with UTCI showing the strongest associations. Additionally, the non-parametric Freidman test was used to determine whether there were differences between the thermal comfort indices calculated for 10-year periods. No monotonic trend was found in the HCI: Urban or HCI: Beach scores. UTCI exhibited a significant positive trend of approximately 0.05 °C/year. Ohrid appears to remain climatically suitable for tourism according to HCI, despite a gradual increase in physiological thermal stress indicated by UTCI. The results are expected to support tourism planners, destination managers, and visitors. At the same time, it is believed that they will serve as a guide for tourism marketing and tourism development on behalf of Ohrid tourism.
With the increasing frequency of extreme heatwave events driven by climate change, urban residential areas in hot-humid regions are facing severe thermal environmental and energy challenges. To comprehensively assess heat risks and building performance under future extreme heatwave scenarios, this study developed localized future extreme heatwave conditions for the Guangzhou region using downscaled climate data from four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. By integrating field measurements, ENVI-met and Energyplus simulations, the study systematically analyzed the outdoor thermal environments and building performance across five typologically diverse residential areas (LCZ 1–3). The results indicate that: (1) Future extreme heatwaves will drastically elevate outdoor heat stress, with the most severe scenario (SSP5-8.5) increasing the peak Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) by over 11 °C and expanding the spatial extent of strong heat stress areas to cover over 95
This article presents the bioclimatic conditions prevailing in the north-eastern part of the Labrador Peninsula during 1884–89, determined based on meteorological data from six measurement stations: Rama, Hebron, Okak, Nain, Zoar and Hopedale. Weather observations were made by the Moravian Brethren in consultation with the German Maritime Observatory (Ger. Deutsche Seewarte), which provided them with reliable meteorological instruments and instructions for conducting the observations. Measurements of air temperature, atmospheric pressure, and wind direction and strength were taken three times daily at 08:00, 14:00 and 20:00 LT. These data have been digitized and made available by the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst [DWD]). Based on available meteorological data, bioclimatic analyses were performed using two indices: Wind Chill Temperature (WCT) and Insulation Predicted (Iclp). The annual courses of average 14:00 LT values of air temperature, wind speed, WCT and Iclp were examined. The annual courses of bioclimatic indices parameters were determined, as were the frequency of individual frostbite risk categories and of predicted clothing thermal insulation. The results from stations in the historical period were compared against each other and, for the Nain station, historical period results were compared against contemporary results (years 1991–2020). The analyses show that, the average air temperature and wind speed in the years 1884–89 were, respectively, 2.5 °C and 0.6 ms˗1 lower than in 1991–2020. The WCT and Iclp bioclimatic indices, were prevailingly less favourable in the historical period than in the comparative period by 1.9 °C and 0.1 clo, respectively.
Dengue is an arboviral disease of high public health relevance, characterized by pronounced temporal variability, nonlinearity, and recurrent outbreaks, which pose challenges to epidemiological surveillance and decision-making. This study evaluated the performance of machine learning methods for short-term forecasting of the weekly dengue morbidity rate in the 27 Brazilian capital cities, comprising the 26 state capitals and Brasília, Federal District, with horizons up to 4 weeks. Epidemiological, climatic, and socioeconomic data were compiled for these capital cities and used to compare a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network, formulated as a Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) model, and a Gradient Boosting model (CatBoost), implemented using a Direct forecasting strategy with horizon-specific models. Validation was conducted using a walk-forward approach, with evaluation based on absolute error metrics and the coefficient of determination. The results indicated that the GRU architecture presented recurring limitations, including underfitting, temporal lag, and low capacity to anticipate epidemic peaks. In contrast, the CatBoost model demonstrated greater robustness and better adaptation to the variability of epidemiological time series, showing superior performance in most of the analyzed capitals. The findings reinforce that greater architectural complexity does not necessarily imply better operational performance and highlight the potential of ensemble-based methods for short-term epidemiological surveillance applications. These findings contribute to dengue forecasting by showing that, under a common validation framework, ensemble-based strategies may provide greater operational robustness than recurrent MIMO architectures for short-term prediction in heterogeneous epidemiological settings.
Climate change is intensifying environmental exposures — wildfire smoke, ambient air pollution, extreme heat, and weather-driven disasters — with plausible but incompletely quantified consequences for cancer, and no prior synthesis has jointly examined them across cancer incidence, mortality, survival, and recurrence. We systematically searched five databases for observational studies up to May 2026 of wildfire, ambient temperature, hurricane or multi-hazard disaster, precipitation anomaly, or ambient PM₂.₅ exposure and cancer outcomes, and pooled 25 effect estimates from 14 studies within ten exposure–outcome groups using random-effects models, with robust variance estimation (RVE) as the primary approach for groups containing dependent estimates from shared cohorts, alongside prespecified subgroup, meta-regression, sensitivity, and GRADE analyses. After accounting for within-cohort dependence the overall association was null (RVE 1.02 (0.93–1.11)); the uncorrected estimate (1.07 (1.02–1.12)) was inflated by correlated effects and extreme heterogeneity (I2 = 97
Ambient temperature is a well-established determinant of mortality, yet evidence from temperate continental regions of Central and Southeastern Europe remains limited. Public health attention has largely concentrated on extreme temperature events, notwithstanding growing evidence that non-extreme temperatures may account for a substantial share of temperature-related deaths. We examined the association between daily mean temperature and all-cause mortality in the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, Serbia, over 2000–2020. Distributed lag non-linear models were used to capture non-linear and delayed temperature effects over a lag period of up to 21 days. Attributable mortality was estimated using a counterfactual framework applied across the full temperature distribution. The temperature–mortality relationship was strongly non-linear and asymmetric. Cold-related effects substantially exceeded those of heat, yielding a temperature-attributable fraction of 9.8
Lower respiratory infections (LRIs) remain a leading cause of mortality worldwide. The study used Global Burden of Disease 2023 data to quantify deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from LRIs attributable to ambient and household PM2.5 in China and the G20. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) in age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR), with subgroup analyses by sex. Forest plots visualized AAPC, and loess smoothing was used to examine the association between the Social Development Index (SDI) and LRI burden. From 1990 to 2023, ASDR of LRIs attributable to ambient PM2.5 generally declined in China and the G20, but reversed upward during 2021–2023 (APC: China 12.76–14.23
The present study intended to analyze the comprehensive niche overlapping among four invasive whitefly species viz., Aleurodicus rugioperculatus (rugose spiraling whitefly), Paraleyrodes bondari (Bondar’s nesting whitefly), Paraleyrodes minei (nesting whitefly), and Aleurotrachelus atratus (palm infesting whitefly), which invaded successively into the coconut ecosystem during 2016–2019. Analyzing ecological niche overlap among these whiteflies helps understand their invasion dynamics and manage ecological impacts on the coconut. The study is grounded in niche conservatism theory and tests whether co-invasive whiteflies retain their fundamental climatic niches in India, and whether niche overlap reflects non-random climatic convergence consistent with shared ecological filtering. Further, niche equivalency and similarity tests provide a statistical basis for determining whether observed overlaps are greater than expected by chance. Spatial thinning (10 km) and target-group background correction were applied to occurrence records to minimize sampling bias. Study revealed that all four niche models substantially outperform random prediction, with Paraleyrodes bondari exhibiting the highest discriminatory power (AUC = 0.914). Additional model evaluation using True Skill Statistic (TSS) and partial ROC further confirmed robust predictive performance across all species. Across all species, temperature-related variables were more influential than precipitation-related variables. Notably, isothermality (bio03) consistently emerged as the most important predictor for A. rugioperculatus, A. atratus, and P. bondari, whereas P. minei showed a stronger influence of the maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio05). Habitat suitability mapping predicted that southern India has high to moderate suitability for A. rugioperculatus, A. atratus, and P. bondari, and southern and central India for P. minei. Pairwise ecological niche overlap was greatest between A. rugioperculatus and P. minei, and lowest between A. rugioperculatus and P. bondari. Native versus invaded niche comparisons revealed significant niche conservatism in A. rugioperculatus and A. atratus, while P. minei showed the greatest niche shift, expanding into climatic space not occupied in its Neotropical native range. The present study is useful for the spatial ecology of invasive whiteflies, interspecific competition, hotspots for co-infestation, pest risk assessments, and early-warning systems for multi-species management in coconut production systems.
To investigate whether short-term changes in meteorological parameters are associated with hemorrhage subtype in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) with spontaneous intracranial hemorrhage, with a particular focus on intraparenchymal hemorrhage (IPH) and subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). This single-center retrospective observational study included adults presenting to the ED between 2013 and 2022 with spontaneous intracranial hemorrhage confirmed on initial non-contrast computed tomography. Of 901 screened patients, 238 with IPH or SAH were included in the final comparative analysis. Clinical variables and meteorological data, including atmospheric pressure (AP), air temperature, and relative humidity, were recorded. Group comparisons were followed by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. Because AP-related variables showed substantial collinearity, full, backward, and forward models were compared, and the final model was selected based on performance and parsimony. AP showed the most consistent association with hemorrhage subtype, whereas air temperature and relative humidity were not consistently related to either group. Event-hour mean AP was independently associated with SAH, whereas 3-day pre-event mean AP was independently associated with IPH. In the final forward multivariable models, headache remained positively associated with SAH, while lateralized neurological findings, systolic blood pressure, family history of hypertension, and 3-day pre-event mean AP were positively associated with IPH. Model discrimination was acceptable, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.789 for SAH and 0.823 for IPH. Short-term AP changes, rather than air temperature or relative humidity, were associated with hemorrhage subtype in this ED cohort. Further multicenter studies are needed to validate these findings and clarify underlying mechanisms.
This single-center retrospective study aimed to evaluate the clinical efficacy of peloid therapy in patients with knee osteoarthritis. Patients diagnosed with knee osteoarthritis according to the criteria of the American College of Rheumatology, with a radiographic grade of at least 2 according to the Kellgren–Lawrence radiographic grading system, and who received at least seven sessions of peloid therapy to the knee were retrospectively analyzed between January 2023 and January 2026. After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 329 patients were included in the analysis. High-organic-content peloid was heated to approximately 47–48 °C and locally applied to the knee area for approximately 20 min per session, with patients receiving a total of 7–15 treatment sessions over 2–3 weeks. The primary endpoint of the study was defined as the change in the WOMAC total score, while the secondary endpoints included WOMAC subscales, VAS pain, VAS global, VAS physician, and HAQ scores. Statistically significant improvement was observed in all post-treatment clinical assessment parameters compared to pre-treatment (p < 0.001). An average decrease of 33.64 points in the WOMAC total score, approximately 38 points in the VAS pain score, and 0.69 points in the HAQ score was observed. Effect size values ranged from 1.00 to 1.57, indicating a very large treatment effect. In the responder analysis, clinically significant improvement was observed in 67.2
Respiratory diseases remain a major public health challenge in tropical coastal cities, where persistent heat-humidity interactions and climate variability shape population vulnerability. This study quantified associations between atmospheric conditions and respiratory hospitalizations in Maceió, Brazil, using a 20-years time series (2000–2019). Weekly hospitalization rates stratified by age (children 0–4 years, adults 5–59 years, elderly ≥ 60 years), were modeled against meteorological variables—including temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, and solar radiation—considering lag structure of 0, 1, and 2 weeks. Random Forest regression models were applied to capture nonlinear relationships and forecast hospitalization rates. Minimum temperature was the dominant predictor, exhibiting strong inverse associations across all age groups (ρ = − 0.65, p < 0.001), with effects persisting up to two weeks. Age-specific patterns were observed: children showed immediate sensitivity to thermal and precipitation variables, whereas elderly populations exhibited delayed responses to barometric pressure and evaporation. Model performance was high for children and adults (R2 = 0.83–0.90) and moderate for the elderly, with Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error ranging from 13 to 25
A systematic review of the effects of water immersion thermotherapy (WIT) on sleep quality in healthy adults. A comprehensive search was conducted in PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of science, Embase, Scopus, Ovid MEDLINE, Wiley Online Library, PEDro, CNKI, SinoMed and Yiigle databases. A meta-analysis method was adopted to evaluate the improvement of sleep quality by using WIT. By calculating the standardized mean difference (SMD) and its 95
Climatotherapy (including thalassotherapy, sun exposure, and marine mud therapy) has long been used as a complementary intervention for musculoskeletal and rheumatologic disorders (MSRDs), yet its evidence base remains fragmented and methodologically heterogeneous. To synthesize the effectiveness and safety of climatotherapy in marine or Dead Sea environments for MSRDs, focusing on pain, physical function, and health-related quality of life. Following Joanna Briggs Institute methodology and PRISMA 2020, PubMed, PEDro, and the Cochrane Library were searched (May 2024; updated September 2025) for randomized and non-randomized trials of climatotherapy in marine or Dead Sea settings. Methodological quality was assessed with the PEDro scale. A structured narrative synthesis was complemented by a limited meta-analysis of pain; given the few trials and substantial heterogeneity, pooled estimates are exploratory. Ten articles representing nine studies (n = 465) were included. Interventions consistently produced short-term improvements in pain, physical function, and quality of life. Pooling was feasible only for pain (k = 2) and was statistically inconclusive, but condition-specific analysis showed a large, significant effect in osteoarthritis and a smaller, non-significant effect in fibromyalgia. Single-study estimates indicated benefits for tender point count and physical quality of life. No serious adverse events were reported, though safety was inconsistently assessed. Climatotherapy shows consistent short-term benefits, particularly for pain and physical function in osteoarthritis. Methodological limitations preclude firm pooled conclusions; rigorous multicenter trials with standardized outcomes and safety reporting are needed. Trial RegistrationPROSPERO CRD42024534694 (registered May 2024).
Understanding long-term and intra-annual variations in human thermal discomfort is essential for climate-health assessments in climate-sensitive regions. In this paper, thermal comfort dynamics have been analyzed at seven locations in Northwestern India by utilizing Effective Temperature (ET) and Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) data for a period of 54 years (1969–2022). Climatic data for dry-bulb temperature (DBT), wet-bulb temperature (WBT), relative humidity (RH), and wind speed (WS) on a daily basis were acquired from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), while missing data were supplemented from NASA’s MERRA-2. Analyses were conducted at annual, seasonal, monthly, and weekly scales. Annual averages of ET and THI indicate generally comfortable conditions; however, higher-resolution analyses reveal substantial thermal stress periods that annual means obscure. At Delhi and Amritsar, ET shows either weak or non-significant trends, while THI exhibits significant warming due to increased WBT, reduced RH, and wind stilling. Trends analyzed on a monthly and weekly basis reveal pronounced seasonal intensification of heat stress. During the pre-summer period, ET shows notable warming, with weekly trends reaching + 0.081 to + 0.086 °C/year in Ambala and Patiala. Pre-monsoon warming is more evident in THI, increasing by + 0.058 to + 0.077 °C/year during mid-May in Delhi, Patiala, and Amritsar. Persistent peak heat from June to mid-July coincides with WBT increases of approximately + 0.05 °C/year at several stations. In contrast, winter and post-monsoon periods exhibit cooling in THI associated with reductions in WBT and DBT, while ET shows weaker declines due to concurrent decreases in wind speed. These contrasting ET and THI responses highlight the importance of multi-index and ventilation-sensitive assessments for thermal risk evaluation, public health preparedness, and climate adaptation planning in Northwestern India.
This review examines the dual relationship between climate change and otolaryngology by assessing the environmental impacts on upper airway diseases, particularly allergic rhinitis (AR), and identifying concrete, evidence-based strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within surgical practice. A narrative literature review was conducted to provide an interpretative synthesis of current knowledge across two distinct but interconnected domains: climate-driven airway health impacts and the environmental sustainability of surgical care. Literature was purposively selected from major databases to support this discussion. Available evidence suggests that elevated CO₂ and particulate matter (PM2.5) act synergistically to increase the allergenicity and mucosal penetration of pollen, significantly exacerbating AR, chronic rhinosinusitis, and sleep-disordered breathing. Marginalized populations face disproportionate exposure to these health impacts due to socioeconomic disparities. In the surgical domain, healthcare contributes approximately 5.2
The Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) is the benchmark for occupational heat-stress assessment, yet its accuracy can be constrained by variability in humidity, air movement, and solar load. The Environmental Stress Index (ESI), derived from routinely available meteorological variables, has been proposed as a low-cost field surrogate. This study evaluated the agreement and physiological relevance of ESI versus WBGT among outdoor workers across arid and semi-arid climates in Iran. A cross-sectional study was conducted on 150 sand-and-gravel mine workers in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Environmental and physiological data were collected at different times. The WBGT (based on ISO 7243) and ESI (based on ambient parameters) were calculated. Between-climate differences were analyzed using t-test or Mann–Whitney U; agreement was assessed by ICC; and associations with meteorological and physiological variables were evaluated using GEE (α = 0.05). In the semi-arid site, the values of both WBGT and ESI were higher during the warmer hours (p < 0.001). Regression analyses revealed statistically significant relationships between the thermal indices and most environmental parameters in both climates (p < 0.05). The agreement between WBGT and ESI was high (ICCarid:0.98, ICCsemi−arid:0.97) with statistically significant correlations in both climates (p < 0.001). In the arid site, both WBGT and ESI showed significant positive correlations with physiological responses, whereas in the semi-arid site, only the ESI index exhibited significant correlations with physiological responses (p < 0.05). Overall, ESI demonstrated performance equivalent to WBGT in the arid site and was suitable for field screening applications. ESI shows strong agreement with WBGT and meaningful physiological validity in arid sites, making it a viable low-cost screening tool when WBGT devices are unavailable. It is recommended that industries in arid regions adopt ESI for daily heat-stress monitoring.
A growing number of studies suggest that exposure to particulate matters with aerodynamic diameters < 2.5 μm (PM2.5) below air quality standards still increases the risk of death from cardiovascular disease (CVD), and the risk of death from ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke, the largest cause of CVD death. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of PM2.5 exposure at lower levels on years of life lost (YLL) and potential life expectancy benefits for IHD and stroke. We investigated the relationship between daily PM2.5 and YLL for IHD and stroke using a generalized additive model (GAM) based on Poisson distribution. Furthermore, we extended our analysis to estimate the Potential Gain in Life Expectancy (PGLE) and the Attributable Fraction (AF) under the current Chinese air quality standards and more stringent World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines. Findings reveal that for each 10 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5, YLL rose by 1.69 years for IHD and 1.34 years for stroke, with the most significant effects observed on the day of exposure for IHD and three days post-exposure for stroke. The impact was more pronounced among women and those aged ≥ 65 years. If PM2.5 levels met the 2021 WHO air quality guidelines, PGLE of 0.22 years for IHD and 0.16 years for stroke could be achieved. The study highlights the need for stricter PM2.5 control measures to enhance cardiovascular health and reduce mortality, even in regions with relatively low pollution levels.
