This article investigates the impact of international trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) on provincial economic growth in Vietnam, using the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with panel data from all 63 provinces (2010 to 2021). The findings indicate that FDI capital and import growth exert positive effects on provincial economic performance, whereas the number of FDI enterprises and other trade-related factors do not show significant impacts. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers seeking to enhance economic growth through targeted trade and FDI strategies, recommending Vietnam prioritize high-quality FDI and productive imports to strengthen provincial industries and competitiveness.
This article assessed the impact of the trade preference program, CBERA, on the SIDS of CARICOM and found that the PTA positively impacted the region's exports to the US. Our econometric estimations coupled with a market segmentation technique identified that there is a negative relationship between the US GDP per capita and CARICOM's exports to the country, which is more acute in the high- and medium-quality markets relative to the low-quality market. We argue that the expansion of the US energy industries along with the deindustrialization of some of CARICOM's non-energy sectors are key factors in this negative relationship.
Existing literature analyzes government ideology and globalization as independent determinants of trade policy, often overlooking the conditional effects of political and social globalization. While labor- and capital-oriented governments tend to adopt protectionist and liberal policies, respectively, globalization benefits industries using mobile factors and disadvantages those relying on immobile factors. Therefore, globalization conditions the effect of ideology on trade policy through ties between domestic industries and partner countries. Using a panel of 33 OECD and EU countries, the study finds that left and right parties prefer protectionist and open policies, respectively, and globalization increases openness, reduces protectionism, and weakens ideology's effect.
This study uses the novel measure of aggregate trade restrictions (MATR) to explore the dynamic effects of trade restrictions on global value chain (GVC) positions across 146 countries (1990 to 2015). Employing the local projection method, this study finds that the aggregate MATR persistently and negatively affects GVC downstreamness but not upstreamness. Decomposition analyses on the five MATR dimensions show diverse outcomes: import restrictions reduce upstreamness, while invisible transfer restrictions increase it. Finally, heterogeneity analyses show that the effects of trade restrictions vary significantly across countries and sectors. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers on balancing protectionism and global integration.
The Blue Economy is ostensibly a transformative concept focused on sustainably unlocking the economic potential of the world's oceans and waterways to improve the health, prosperity, and welfare of the global population. However, it remains relatively obscure to the masses and persistently commercially stagnant. Based on a multi-year, firsthand involvement advising Shell's attempted entry into this emerging sector, this summary note identifies two key paradoxes constraining progress, the key categories of players and incentives perpetuating these paradoxes, and offers specific, practical suggestions for breaking the impasse to revitalize and accelerate movement of this important foundation of a sustainable economy.
This article analyzes the determinants of Tunisia's structural current account deficits. Building on the intertemporal framework, we develop a theoretical model of current account that incorporates key institutional constraints, notably limited access to international capital markets and domestic borrowing restrictions. Empirically, a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model based on annual data from 1980 to 2023 assesses the dynamic effects of fiscal, terms-of-trade, and GDP growth shocks. The findings show that fiscal deficits generate the most significant and persistent deterioration in the current account, whereas other shocks depend on their perceived permanence. Policy implications emphasize fiscal consolidation, financial inclusion, and investment-led growth to enhance external sustainability.
International trade boosts growth but raises environmental pressures captured by the ecological footprint (EF). Yet spatial spillovers separating direct from indirect cross-border influences remain underexplored. Using 158 countries and a dynamic panel spatial Durbin model with fixed effects (DPSDM-FE), we find that a country's own trade has no significant effect on its EF, while spillovers from neighbors' trade are dominant and significant, accounting for about 87% of the total effect. Results are robust to alternative dependent variables, spatial weight matrices, and endogeneity checks. The transboundary nature of impacts calls for coordinated trade-environment policies and international agreements to align integration with sustainability.
This study assesses linkages between global uncertainty, human resource development, and economic complexity in 38 African countries between 2010 and 2023. The Driscoll and Kraay fixed-effect standard errors are employed. Global uncertainty unconditionally deters economic complexity. Human resource development positively moderates the impact of global uncertainty on Africa's economic complexity. The empirical results further show that foreign direct investment, infrastructural development, and improved economic performance remain vital for enhancing the region's economic complexity. The corresponding policy implications and recommendations are discussed in alignment with the African Union's Agenda 2063 and Sustainable Development Goals.
International remittances are vital sources of external finance for African economies, including Ghana, yet their impact on import demand remains underexplored. Using annual data from 1980 to 2021, this study employs ordinary least squares (OLS), fully modified OLS (FMOLS), and impulse response analysis to examine the effect of remittances on import demand. Results show remittances significantly reduce import demand, while GDP and exports positively influence it. Inflation, proxied by the consumer price index, exerts a negative effect. Findings suggest remittances support local consumption. Policy should prioritize industrialization-led growth and frameworks that channel remittances into productive sectors, reducing import dependency.
This study examines connectedness between the US-China tension (UCT) index and precious metal returns (silver, gold, platinum, palladium, rhodium) in US and China markets using a frequency-based TVP approach. Cross-spillovers account for about 48.5% of system variation, indicating moderate, short-term-dominated interdependence. Precious metals show safe-haven behavior to UCT shocks, strongest for rhodium. UCT is a net shock transmitter; platinum dominates short-term transmission, while palladium switches roles across horizons. Connectedness surges during global shocks, amplified by joint geopolitical and policy uncertainty. These results suggest that investors can exploit rhodium's resilience, while traders and central banks should pursue flexible, time-varying diversification strategies across geopolitical regimes.
This study focuses on two financial alternatives, payday and peer-to-peer (P2P) loans, and their association with crime. We study whether P2P lending is an improved alternative to payday loans or whether the additional access to liquidity reinforces the payday lending-crime relationship. We take advantage of the differences in the U.S. regulatory environment of payday lenders and find that there is a direct relationship between payday lending and P2P lending. P2P lending provides temporary relief, but such relief transforms itself into a financial burden, causing an increase in both property and violent crime while simultaneously reinforcing the payday lending-property crime relationship.
This study analyzes the impact of special economic zones (SEZs) on export diversification with particular emphasis on the role of infrastructure and human capital. The data cover 39 African countries over the period of 2000 to 2021. The differences-in-differences with heterogeneous treatment effects models are used for the empirical analyses. Results show that SEZs promote export diversification in Africa. Human capital endowments as well as an increase in the quantity and quality of infrastructure boost the impact of SEZs on export diversification. To benefit from the positive externalities of SEZs, African decision-makers need to provide a competitive economic environment.
This article analyzes the effect of trade facilitation (TF) on intra-ECOWAS trade between 2010 and 2023, using an augmented gravity model and the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI). The PPML estimator shows that TF has a positive and significant effect on intra-ECOWAS trade. Specifically, the competence and quality of logistics services, as well as the ability to organize international shipments at competitive prices, boost intra-community trade. It is more than necessary for ECOWAS countries to strengthen measures such as logistics quality and international shipping to promote smooth and competitive intra-regional trade.
This study examines how bank concentration affects female economic inclusion in 80 developing countries for the period of 2000 to 2020. The study employs fixed effects regressions and generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation techniques as empirical strategies. Women's economic empowerment is diminished by bank concentration potentially due to reduced financial access. Compared to bank concentration with regard to the total assets owned by the three largest banks, bank concentration in terms of the total assets held by the five largest banks is linked to a larger negative magnitude. Policy implications are discussed in terms of increasing competition in the banking sector.
This study assesses the impact of transportation infrastructure on trade within China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) using a gravity model to analyze export data across maritime, air, and ground sectors from BRI countries. Findings indicate that maritime and air infrastructure significantly enhance export capacities more than ground transportation. The analysis highlights that infrastructure quality in importing countries notably affects export performance, suggesting prioritizing investments in maritime and air transport and recommending targeted infrastructure investments to maximize economic returns. Our results challenge the view of the BRI as a mere debt trap, showcasing its potential for boosting global trade connectivity.
The literature suggests that small island developing states (SIDS) are at a disadvantage compared to their larger counterparts. While larger countries have pursued manufacturing for exports, SIDS have typically focused on commodities, financial services, or tourism. This study explores selected macroeconomic factors and their influence on export manufacturing in SIDS. Using a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, we find that GDP positively influences manufacturing exports in the Asia-Pacific region and that trade openness is important to resource-rich and Caribbean SIDS. We also find evidence supporting the presence of Dutch disease among the Caribbean and resource-rich SIDS.
The issues of zero trade observations and the validity of the log linear transformation of the gravity equation have generated a number of debates in the literature with differing claims about the most suitable estimation technique. To produce unbiased and consistent estimates for policy making, we undertake a careful comparison of a number of widely used estimators to investigate if EU fish standards are protectionist following reoccurring rejection of African fish products at the EU border. Analysis was based on a dataset of Africa's fish exports to the European Union between 2007 and 2012, which contains about 63% zero trade observations. Our results from the robustness checks are in favour of only the Multinomial Poisson Maximum Likelihood (MPML) technique as the most consistent estimator in relation to the impacts of standards and other explanatory variables. In addition, we find EU standards are indeed non-protectionist in spite of the high level of African fish exports rejected since 2008 at the EU border. Thus, a deeper trade agreement between these trading partners involving a significant transfer in science and technology to the Africa could help improve their compliance rate to EU standards and ensure increased export penetration.
