Introduction: The D-8 Countries was established to promote regional agreements, strengthen economic relations, and increase the collective influence of its member states in global markets. The D-8 group includes Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt, and Bangladesh, which exhibit diverse ecological and climatic conditions. One of the group’s strategic goals is to enhance food security and ensure energy supply through joint investments in agriculture and natural resources. Data on greenhouse gas emissions indicate that environmental quality in these countries has declined rapidly over the past two decades. In this context, the present study investigates the impact of natural resource extraction on environmental quality, focusing on greenhouse gas emissions in the D-8 Islamic countries. This research can contribute to a clear understanding of the current state of resources, support future studies, and promote accurate, evidence-based planning in the environmental field.Materials and Methods: In this study, based on the stationarity properties of the variables, the panel cointegration approach was applied. Furthermore, according to the results of the Pedroni and Kao cointegration tests, the short-run relationship was estimated using the Error Correction Model (ECM), while the long-run relationship was estimated using the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method.Results: The findings of this study indicate that an increase in resource rents derived from forestry, mining, and fossil fuel extraction contributes to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and a decline in environmental quality. Specifically, a one percent increase in forestry, mining, and fossil fuel rents is associated with a long-term rise in per capita GHG emissions of approximately 0.05%, 0.08%, and 0.01%, respectively. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that an increase in exports exacerbates environmental pollution. A one percent increase in exports is projected to raise per capita GHG emissions by about 0.007% in the long run. Conversely, a one percent increase in imports is expected to reduce per capita GHG emissions by approximately 0.01%.Discussion: The empirical findings confirm a stable, long run relationship between natural resource extraction and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Accordingly, it is recommended that deterrent measures such as imposing taxes and customs duties on raw timber exports and employing remote sensing tools for continuous forest cover monitoring be adopted to prevent further depletion of these natural assets. Additionally, mining activities should be supervised through environmental mechanisms and regulations, and a substantial portion of mining revenues should be allocated to establishing vegetative cover and enhancing environmental quality. Furthermore, one of the most effective strategies to mitigate the adverse environmental impact of fossil fuel consumption is the diversification of energy supply sources. The utilization of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind power, which are independent of carbon combustion, can significantly reduce GHG emissions. Therefore, appropriate infrastructure should be developed to maximize the share of renewable energy. The results also indicate that trade expansion positively affects pollution levels through increased exports, while imports exert a negative effect. Thus, trade policies should be formulated in a manner that preserves biocapacity by preventing the export of goods that undermine domestic ecological resilience, thereby strengthening environmental sustainability. In conclusion, macroeconomic policy design must take into account the aforementioned environmental consequences, particularly the impacts of natural resource extraction and trade patterns based on the type of goods produced.
Introduction: Unrestricted urbanization has driven the rapid expansion of cities, posing significant challenges to natural resources and environmental integrity. Iran, like many other nations, has experienced this trend, undergoing substantial changes as a result. To minimize biodiversity loss, it is crucial to analyze the impacts of urbanization on biodiversity and implement targeted, effective policies. These policies should focus on identifying vulnerable species and areas where the effects of urban expansion are highly concentrated, enabling informed and conscientious urban planning.The primary objective of this study is to identify key indicators of degradation within Bamou National Park. This includes determining the interdependencies among these indicators and, ultimately, ranking the factors contributing to degradation to facilitate effective management and planning strategies for the area. Data collection was conducted using a survey-based research approach, with the statistical population defined by a panel of environmental experts and specialists.Materials and Methods: To analyze and establish the relationships between urban growth policies and the management of Bamou National Park, a 5-kilometer buffer zone surrounding the park was initially delineated using Google Earth Engine. This delineation allowed for the monitoring and measurement of changes in land cover and land use patterns. Subsequently, expert opinions gathered from the region, coupled with a review of relevant literature, were used to develop a hierarchical DPSIR (Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response) model. Concurrently, an evaluation index system was designed across four domains: physical/chemical, biological, economic, and socio-cultural. An initial matrix containing over 60 criteria was developed, and the criteria and sub-criteria were ranked using the Delphi method to prioritize relevant indicators. Additionally, the DANP (DEMATEL- ANP) model was employed to determine and estimate the influence and interrelation of factors affecting Bamou National Park.Results: The findings reveal that the economic environment ranks highest among the evaluation criteria. The sub-criteria were ranked as follows, with their respective weights: agricultural and horticultural development (weight = 0.071), land-use change and illegal occupation (weight = 0.069), tourism and recreation (weight = 0.068), and increased construction (weight = 0.067). Based on these results, specific strategies for achieving a favorable outcome have been proposed.Discussion: A significant disparity in the physical growth patterns of cities surrounding Bamou National Park (within the 5-kilometer buffer zone) is evident, highlighting the neglect of a critical potential resource – imminent habitat loss. A thorough review of existing policies, laws, and regulations, coupled with their rigorous implementation, is essential. Also critical are targeted conservation efforts, continuous public education campaigns emphasizing the importance of protecting these areas, the promotion of sustainable ecotourism initiatives, the adoption of environmentally sound agricultural practices, encouraging responsible natural resource use, and active public participation in conservation efforts. These measures can mitigate habitat fragmentation and prevent the extinction of plant and animal species within the region. Furthermore, it is recommended to foster international collaboration and knowledge exchange with similar and more developed countries. Additionally, leveraging the resources and mechanisms of international environmental institutions to assign economic value to managed areas is crucial. This valuation can serve to reduce encroachment, prevent land-use conversions, and safeguard these areas from further degradation.
Introduction: The largehead hairtail (Trichiurus lepturus) is a commercially important species with a wide distribution across tropical and subtropical marine ecosystems, including the coastal waters of Makkoran. Investigating morphometric parameters, as well as feeding and growth patterns, is essential for effective fisheries management and for understanding dietary shifts from juvenile to adult stages. Furthermore, insights into the biological characteristics of this species within local habitats provide a foundation for the development of sustainable fishery management strategies and the conservation of marine biodiversity. Accordingly, the present study aimed to examine the biometric traits, growth dynamics, and feeding ecology of T. lepturus to support improved fisheries management in the coastal waters of Makkoran.Materials and Methods: For this purpose, a total of 120 specimens of T. lepturus were collected seasonally over one year, from autumn 2021 to summer 2022, from three fishing sites along the Makkoran coast in Sistan and Balouchestan Province, namely Chabahar, Beris, and Ramin. The specimens were immediately fixed in 10% formalin and transported to the laboratory. In the lab, biometric parameters, including total length, body weight, and growth pattern, were measured. The digestive tracts were dissected to identify stomach contents for dietary analysis. Additionally, the relative gut length index was calculated by dividing gut length by total body length to assess dietary characteristicsResults: The average total length and body weight of the samples were estimated at 73.53 ± 21.33 cm and 501.72 ± 270.7 g, respectively. The highest and lowest mean values for length and weight were recorded in autumn and summer, respectively, although no significant seasonal differences were observed (p > 0.05). Length and weight distribution analysis indicated that the highest frequency was within the 73–83 cm length class and the 150–250 g weight class. The length-weight regression yielded a b value of 2.293, indicating negative allometric growth. Stomach content analysis revealed a diverse diet composed of digested material, fish, crustaceans, and mollusks. Digested material accounted for the highest dietary proportion (58%), while mollusks had the lowest (9%). The relative gut length index varied across length groups and seasons, with the highest value recorded in fish over 107 cm in length. These findings suggest feeding plasticity and a consistent growth pattern in this species.Discussion: The results indicate that T. lepturus in the coastal waters of Makkoran exhibits negative allometric growth, wherein weight increases at a lower rate than length. This pattern is commonly observed under nutritional, habitat, or physiological constraints. The species' diverse diet, with a substantial portion of digested material and notable contributions from fish and crustaceans, reflects an opportunistic and active feeding strategy consistent with its role as a top predator in the food web. This feeding flexibility plays a crucial role in seasonal adaptability and coping with fluctuating food availability. Furthermore, variations in the relative gut length index with body size and season support potential changes in metabolic requirements and diet composition across growth stages. These findings, combined with the uniform distribution in length and weight, provide useful indicators for monitoring population health and establishing guidelines for size and season-based fishing regulations.
Introduction: Exposure to Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs) has been a major concern for the scientific community in recent decades. These compounds are emitted as gases from certain solids or liquids and include a variety of chemicals, some of which may have short- and long-term adverse health effects. VOCs are emitted by a wide array of products numbering in the thousands, including paints, varnishes, wax, many cleaning, disinfecting, cosmetic, degreasing, and hobby products, as well as fuels. The chemical diversity of VOCs can cause both cancerous and non-cancerous health effects. Among the numerous VOCs, Benzene, Toluene, Ethylbenzene, and Xylene (collectively known as BTEX) are the major contributors, which have adverse effects such as headaches, eye irritation, weakness, fatigue, insomnia, respiratory problems, and carcinogenicity. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has identified 189 air pollutants, of which97 are VOCs. Benzene, in particular, is a well-known carcinogen. The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) has classified Benzene as a Group 1 carcinogen due to its strong link to leukemia. Long-term exposure to high levels of benzene in the air can cause leukemia, particularly acute myeloid leukemia. Exposure to VOCs, especially Benzene, can occur through inhalation, ingestion, and skin contact. Therefore, this study evaluates the cancer risk of benzene in the South Pars region, a major hub for natural gas extraction and petrochemical industries in Iran. Materials and Methods: Data were collected using passive sampling methods from January 2020 to January 2021 across ten sampling stations located in both industrial and residential zones. Samples were analyzed using GC (Gas Chromatography), and the maximum, minimum, and average concentrations were calculated over the one-year period. Results showed that the average annual concentration of benzene fluctuated between 1.4 µg/m³ (at sampling satation NO.8) and 26.3 µg/m³ (at sampling satation NO. 2). This average annual concentration served as the basis for cancer risk assessment. According to the locations of the sampling stations, which are located in three industrial zones and seven in residential areas, including two near schools, exposure assumptions such as daily exposure time (ET), exposure frequency (EF), exposure duration (ED), and average lifespan were considered for seven population groups to calculate cancer risk. Results: Findings showed that cancer risk from benzene is higher for non-resident industrial workers compared to resident workers. Moreover, urban-official areas posed significantly higher risks for permanent residents and industrial workers living in those areas than for people who only commuted there during working hours. Despite the maximum Benzene concentrations being recorded at industrial sampling stations, the cancer risk in residential-urban areas is high due to longer exposure time (ET), exposure frequency (EF), and exposure duration (ED) for the native population compared to satellite workers, even though the levels are within the Department of Environment (DOE) of Iran's limits. The maximum level of Benzene cancer risk in the urban area for native people is 23 x 10⁻⁶, for non-resident industrial workers in the industrial zone is 22 x 10⁻⁶, and for industrial employees who live in urban areas is 15.6 x 10⁻⁶. Discussion: Therefore, because of the high level of Benzene cancer risk for industrial employees, it is necessary to reduce Benzene emissions from industries located around Sampling Station No. 2 immediately and effectively. Moreover, it is essential to implement an action plan for the residential-urban population, similar to the specific monitoring plan for staff health in the industrial units.
Introduction: In the contemporary world, the environmental attitudes of senior managers are recognized as key factors in the success of organizations and the realization of environmental sustainability. Managers who adopt a proactive approach to environmental preservation will institutionalize competitive advantage and reputation in green product design, supply chain management, ecological branding, environmental accounting and disclosure, and product life cycle management. In this context, a deep understanding of the impact of environmental attitudes on organizational behaviors and strategic decision-making can lead to identifying solutions to improve the environmental and competitive performance of organizations. Accordingly, the aim of this research is to analyze the impact of senior managers' environmental attitudes on environmental management accounting and green production strategy to achieve a green competitive advantage in organizations. This study uses upper management theory as a framework to analyze the behaviors of senior managers and examines their psychological impacts on strategic decision-making. This research is the first study to investigate the relationship between CEOs' attitudes toward the environment, the choice of green production strategy, the implementation of environmental management accounting, and green competitive advantage within the framework of a single study in Iran. Additionally, the moderating role of regulatory pressures is considered in the two relationships: the attitude of managers toward the environment with the choice of green production strategy, and the attitude of managers toward the environment with the implementation of environmental management accounting.Materials and Methods: This research is descriptive-correlational and survey-based, aiming to examine the impact of senior managers' attitudes on environmental management accounting, green production strategy, and competitive advantage. Data were collected through a 25-question questionnaire based on a Likert scale. The statistical population of the research includes senior managers of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange or over-the-counter market in 2024, classified into 14 groups based on the severity of pollution and other environmental issues according to Article 2 of the regulations for the establishment of industrial and production units approved on 29/03/2011, comprising 436 companies. To assess the validity of the questionnaire, both ordinary content validity and construct validity using confirmatory factor analysis were employed. To evaluate the reliability of the questionnaire, Cronbach's alpha method was used, confirming the reliability of the questionnaires. Data analysis was performed using SPSS and Smart PLS software.Ressults: The findings of the research indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between senior managers' attitudes toward the environment and green production strategy, the implementation of environmental management accounting, and green competitive advantage.Discussion: Senior managers' positive attitudes toward the environment increase, the willingness to adopt environmental management accounting and green production strategies also increases, resulting in greater competitive advantage. Furthermore, legal pressure as a driving factor can assist in the adoption of sustainable practices and improve environmental performance. Additionally, this research shows that the selection and implementation of green production strategies require an effective and efficient environmental management accounting system to support these strategies. Ultimately, by changing attitudes and increasing awareness of environmental issues, organizations can achieve sustainable competitive advantage and, consequently, contribute to improving their financial and social performance. These findings can guide senior managers to improve organizational performance and create sustainable value by adopting environmental approaches.
Introduction: Formaldehyde (formalin) is a preservative that is widely used in surfactants, dishwashing liquids, cosmetics and health products, especially shampoos and care products. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has identified formaldehyde as a strong carcinogen. Therefore, the detection and measurement of this compound with high speed and sensitivity in various samples is of great importance. Various methods for measuring formalin have been reported in scientific literature, but they have not been accepted due to long analysis time, high cost, and low sensitivity. Among the methods, electrochemical methods have been considered due to their high sensitivity, high analysis speed, low cost, and miniaturization. Materials and Methods: In this study, the surface of the pencil lead electrode was graphitized by applying a direct voltage in a sulfuric acid solution. After activating the electrode surface, it was floated in nickel chloride solution and nickel nanoparticles were deposited on the electrode surface using chronoamperometry technique by applying a potential of -1.2 for 100 seconds. Then, by scanning the potential in alkaline medium, the graphenized pencil lead electrode (GPLE) modified with nickel hydroxide nanoparticles was obtained. The morphology of the GPLE/Ni(OH)2 was examined by scanning electron microscopy and the average particle size was calculated to be about 52 nm. The structure of the modified electrode was characterized using X-ray diffraction (XRD), electrochemical impedance spectroscopy, atomic force microscopy (AFM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and electrochemical methods. The important parameters including the electrodeposition time, electrodeposition potential and electrode activation conditions were optimized. After electrochemical experiments, the prepared electrode was used to measure formaldehyde as a hazardous environmental pollutant in various types of detergents.Results: Based on the experimental results, the simultaneous presence of nickel hydroxide nanoparticles and graphene nanosheets on the electrode surface increases the electron transfer rate and also increases the electrochemical active surface area of the modified electrode. The results of the experiments conducted under optimal conditions show that the GPLE/Ni(OH)2 has a linear range of 5-175 μM, a detection limit of 2.04 μM, and a sensitivity of 0.20496 μA μM-1 cm-1 for the measurement of formaldehyde. Discussion: Compared to similar studies, the efficiency of the GPLE/Ni(OH)2 in the measurement of formaldehyde is acceptable and it can be used with high accuracy and reliability in the measurement of formaldehyde in various detergents. In order to investigate the effect of interference of some species on the response of the fabricated sensor, the interference of compounds such as betaine, coconutate, texapone, urea and glycerin, which are widely used in detergents, was investigated. According to this study, the change in the response of the GPLE/Ni(OH)2 electrode for 25 μM formaldehyde in the presence of interfering species was less than 5%, indicating good selectivity of the designed sensor. Also, the fabricated electrode maintained its efficiency for long periods of time, which indicates its commercialization. The results obtained from the spiking and the recoveries obtained indicate the high accuracy of the results obtained. The results obtained using the proposed method were compared with some other methods which indicated the high sensitivity and capability of GPLE/Ni(OH)2 for measuring formaldehyde with high accuracy and precision.
Introduction: The increasing emission of greenhouse gases and the consequences of climate change have become major global challenges, particularly in oil-rich countries. Evidence suggests that climate change not only heightens the vulnerability of low-income populations but also exacerbates economic inequality. This study aims to evaluate the impact of wealth inequality on the carbon footprint in Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates over the period 1995–2023. Owing to their vast energy resources and heavy dependence on oil and gas exports, these countries account for a substantial share of global carbon emissions. Therefore, identifying the factors influencing this trend is crucial for designing effective environmental and pollution-reduction policies.Materials and Methods: In this study, the wealth shares of the top 1% and top 10% of the population are used as indicators of wealth concentration, while the wealth shares of the middle 40% and bottom 50% are employed as measures of a more equitable wealth distribution. Per capita income, energy intensity, and total energy production are included as control variables. To estimate the effects, both the Fixed Effects (FE) model and Robust Least Squares (RLS) regression are applied to ensure the robustness and reliability of the findings. Robust Least Squares refers to a set of regression techniques specifically designed to reduce sensitivity to outliers and influential observations, thereby providing more reliable parameter estimates.Results: The findings reveal that wealth inequality, per capita income, energy intensity, and total energy production all exert a positive and statistically significant effect on the carbon footprint in Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Specifically, increases in the wealth shares of the top 1% and top 10% lead to higher carbon emissions, whereas increases in the wealth shares of the middle 40% and bottom 50% are associated with lower carbon emissions. These results indicate that economic inequality and the concentration of wealth among high-income groups generate adverse environmental consequences in addition to raising concerns about social equity. Per capita income also emerges as a key driver of carbon emissions, likely reflecting higher energy consumption and greater reliance on fossil fuels as income levels rise. Furthermore, both energy intensity and total energy production have positive and significant effects on carbon emissions across all estimated models.Discussion: The results suggest that the energy-intensive and relatively inefficient economic structures of these countries contribute to excessive energy consumption and rising environmental pollution. Based on the findings, three major policy recommendations are proposed. First, policymakers should pursue reforms aimed at improving wealth distribution and reducing economic inequality. Measures such as progressive taxation on wealth and high incomes, support for middle- and lower-income groups, and increased investment in public services can help mitigate inequality and reduce the environmental costs associated with wealth concentration. Second, improving energy efficiency and reducing energy intensity should be prioritized. Investments in energy-efficient technologies, optimization of industrial and transportation energy use, and the gradual removal of fossil-fuel subsidies can contribute significantly to lowering carbon emissions. Third, accelerating the transition toward renewable energy sources is essential for achieving long-term environmental sustainability. Overall, the findings indicate that reducing wealth inequality, enhancing energy efficiency, and expanding renewable energy development can play a crucial role in lowering the carbon footprint and improving environmental sustainability in these oil-dependent economies.
Introduction: Waste management primarily focuses on waste disposal, with three main methods: incineration, landfilling, and recycling. Among these, recycling holds greater significance due to its environmental and economic benefits, and is divided into formal and informal sectors. Although formal recycling is more sustainable, it faces challenges due to high costs, whereas informal recycling, although less costly, has negative environmental impacts. The Theory of Planned Behavior suggests that environmental attitudes, subjective norms, and behavioral control influence recycling participation, and barriers such as insufficient awareness and lack of social encouragement can be analyzed within this framework. The Circular Economy Theory emphasizes waste reduction and reuse, yet challenges such as raw material shortages and competition with producers of virgin materials make its implementation difficult. The Institutional Theory highlights the role of government policies and institutional support, indicating that the absence of subsidies, tax exemptions, and bureaucratic complexity are key institutional barriers in the recycling industry. Additionally, the Transaction Cost Theory explains that high costs of collection, processing, and distribution of waste make recycling a difficult competitor to cheaper methods such as landfilling.Materials and Methods: This study employed Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to analyze barriers to waste recycling. This method identified 15 key barriers through a review of literature and field studies. Subsequently, a Structural Self-Interaction Matrix (SSIM) was created by surveying 9 waste management experts, which clarified the relationships among barriers based on causal and influential criteria. In the next step, an initial reachability matrix was created and modified using Boolean logic to obtain the final reachability matrix. This matrix formed the basis for the level classification of barriers and the MICMAC analysis.Results: The software output classified the barriers into 7 levels. At level 1, barriers such as the absence of government subsidies, lack of tax exemptions, excessive bureaucracy, shortage of skilled labor, water scarcity, and budget deficiencies were identified. At level 2, barriers like low profitability and lack of landfill space for residuals after waste processing were recognized. At level 3, the high cost of environmentally sustainable operations and fierce competition with producers of virgin materials emerged. At level 4, barriers like the high cost of raw material procurement and low quality of recycled products were evident. At level 5, high technology costs were identified, while improper capacity planning and high waste processing costs appeared at level 6. Finally, raw material shortages were classified at level 7, being a key factor in the recycling process.Discussion: The ISM results showed that the barriers were divided into two categories: independent factors and autonomous factors. Independent factors, such as raw material shortages, high technology costs, and improper processing capacity planning, had the greatest impact on other system elements and were considered key drivers for structural reforms. In contrast, autonomous factors, such as the absence of government subsidies or tax exemptions, had limited short-term impact but played an important supportive role in the long term. Therefore, ensuring sustainable raw materials, reducing technology costs, and implementing supportive policies could facilitate the development of the recycling industry.
Introduction: The increasing energy demand has led to the development of large energy-related industries such as oil and gas and power plants. The combined cycle power plant is one of the most efficient, flexible and cost-effective industrial projects for electricity generation that is currently being built and operated in many parts of the world, including Iran. Combined cycle power plants, despite their high energy efficiency, are considered one of the considerable environmentally damaging facilities due to the production of various types of waste, air and water pollution. This has led to the need for comprehensive management of sustainable environmental development. One of the most important considerations for achieving sustainable development is to reduce the adverse environmental impacts of electricity generation. Environmental impact assessment is a process that evaluates the effects of human activities on the environment. The EIA goal is to maintain sustainable development to ensure the protection of the ecosystem and human well-being. In recent years, many studies have been conducted on environmental impact assessment of power plants, including combined cycle power plants. This paper aims to assess the actual environmental impacts caused by activities of the Ghadir Combined cycle power plant using the RIAM method and rank them by the Shannon Entropy and CoCoSo techniques. It has also been attempted to verify the accuracy of the predicted impacts by comparing the results of the impact assessment of the power plant that is currently in operation with the results of the environmental impact assessment report that was conducted in 2016.Materials and Methods: The environmental impacts resulting from the power plant activities were identified based on the current conditions of the study area, reviewing the documents, and the opinions of experts related to the research topic. Subsequently, the assessment process was carried out using the Rapid Impact Assessment Matrix (RIAM) method for the identified real impacts. Then, the CoCoSo method was used to prioritize the real environmental impacts of the Ghadir Combined Cycle Power Plant.Results: The results showed that the effect of industrial and sanitary waste disposal on aquatic life with a score of 16, the effect of emission of contaminating gases on the personnel health with a score of 15.9, and the effect of the disposal of industrial and sanitary effluent on the water habitat with a score of 14.4 are the most important. Finally, considering the identified effects and the type of power plant activities, an environmental monitoring program as well as corrective and control measures were presented to reduce environmental impacts.Discussion: This study was conducted to identify and assess the actual environmental impacts of a combined cycle power plant. The results show that the most significant impact is related to water pollution due to the discharge of power plant wastewater into the environment. The most important factors affecting water pollution are related to the use of chemicals and extensive water consumption in steam and cooling units, which lead to the pollution of surface water resources. Therefore, a proposed program has been presented to monitor the parameters affecting the quality of the environment within the power plant. Previous studies have indicated that the most important environmental impacts resulting from the implementation of power plant projects are water pollution and emission of combustion gases, which from this perspective is consistent with the results of the present study.
Introduction: Industrial development is the result of changes in methods and development of new machines that have been created in order to provide the needs of human societies, failure to impact assessment of these issues can leads to serious risks for humans and environment. Therefore, it is necessary and essential to achieve management and purposeful tool that accurately identifies and effectively controls potential and actual threats to health, safety, and the environment. Among various industries, the pulp and paper industry are a growing industry due to the high per capita production of paper to provide the needs of society and has been identified as the sixth most polluting industry in the world. In addition to environmental impacts, this industry may pose many risks to the workforce that are working in it, which has led to greater attention to the issue of health-safety and especially environmental risk assessment. Therefore, it is necessary to identify the risks that threaten human resources and the environment and to propose solutions to reduce these risks to this industry.Material and Methods: In this study, the EFMEA (Environmental Failure Mode and Effects Analysis) method, which is an efficient method of the environmental risk assessment, was used to identify and assess the environmental risks of the Golestan Persia Paper Company. Initially, the risks of process units (including the pulping unit, production line, and steam boiler unit) were identified. In the next step, the impacts of the identified risks were evaluated using the components of consequence severity, probability of occurrence, and probability of detection and identification. After determining the confidence limit, environmental risks were classified and finally control/corrective measures were proposed to eliminate or reduce the risks. In the final step, a secondary assessment of environmental risks was conducted after corrective actions, and the priority of implementing the corrective measures was determined according to the degree of feasibility.Results: Of the 16 environmental risks identified, 3 were at high risk level, 11 at medium risk level, and 2 at low risk level. The highest risk level is related to the formation of sediment in the steam boiler, which leads to higher fuel consumption and air pollution. soil contamination resulting from the entry of wastewater from the production line and pulping unit into a soil pond for sedimentation before treatment is performed as well as Condensate flashing (conversion of the liquid phase to vapor) are also considered to be other major risks of the plant under study. By providing corrective solutions, all risks were reduced to a low-severity risk level.Discussion: The results of the present study and a review of similar research conducted in different industries showed that conducting risk assessment studies and providing corrective actions can significantly reduce risk levels. Combining of the methods of health, safety, and environmental risk assessment by systematizing the process of identifying aspects can increase the accuracy and precision of risk assessment results. And finally, the identified solutions can be used in the form of risk management guidelines in the study area. After identifying solutions and adopting the desired strategy to control each of the risks, it will be possible to design operational scenarios appropriate to each of these strategies and in accordance with the crisis management guidelines.
Introduction: Land use changes fundamentally reshape the sustainability of natural ecosystems, with wetlands being among the most vulnerable biomes due to their critical role in providing ecosystem services. The Meighan Wetland, one of Iran's key habitats for migratory birds, has undergone substantial land use transformations in recent decades due to anthropogenic and climatic changes. Understanding the dynamics of land use/land cover changes and quantifying the spatiotemporal patterns of wetland loss are essential for addressing environmental challenges and risks, understanding trends, identifying sensitive and vulnerable zones, restoring degraded areas, sustainably managing wetland resources, and developing informed policies and future planning strategies. Materials and Methods: This study aimed to identify and analyze land use changes in the Meighan Wetland basin over more than two decades (1998–2020) using remote sensing data and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Landsat 5 TM and Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS satellite images were employed, with radiometric and geometric corrections applied to the images, achieving an RMSE of 0.45. Image processing was conducted using the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) methods. To evaluate classification accuracy, an error matrix was generated, and accuracy assessment was performed using overall accuracy, Kappa coefficient, producer’s accuracy, and user’s accuracy. Post-classification change detection was applied to identify changes over time. The extracted land use maps for each study period were analyzed for the different sub-basins within the Meighan watershed, comparing the areas of major land use classes, including water bodies, residential-industrial zones, rainfed croplands, rocky outcrops, and rangelands. The land use change detection and analysis were conducted using classification models in ArcGIS. Results: The accuracy assessment validated the high reliability of the generated land use maps. For SVM and MLC classification methods, Kappa coefficients of 0.68 and 0.91, and overall accuracies of 71.57% and 93.12% were obtained for 1998, respectively. For 2020, Kappa coefficients of 0.90 and 0.92, and overall accuracies of 93.11% and 94.56% were achieved. The MLC method outperformed SVM in classification accuracy. During the investigation period, rangeland cover declined by 16.93%, with the highest reduction observed in the Ebrahimabad sub-basin (61% decrease). Agricultural land, particularly irrigated fields and orchards, increased by 12.35%, while rainfed croplands expanded in all sub-basins except Karharood. Residential-industrial land use exhibited an increasing trend across all sub-basins except Ebrahimabad. Discussion: The 22-year analysis reveals that the Meighan Wetland basin, as a sensitive and fragile ecosystem, has experienced extensive land use and cover changes. Climate change, human activities, and excessive resource exploitation have significantly contributed to wetland shrinkage. These factors, interacting in a complex manner, have led to an unsustainable development cycle that threatens water and soil resources while altering the region’s ecological functions. Failure to implement strategic management could shift the basin from an ecosystem service provider to a primary source of saline dust, posing severe public health risks to surrounding communities. This research highlights the critical role of remote sensing data and GIS-based analyses in detecting environmental change patterns in wetlands and providing precise spatiotemporal data to support decision-making and the development of effective environmental management strategies.
Introduction: The use of organochlorine (OCPs) and organophosphorus pesticides (OPPs) on a large scale in agricultural lands in the northern provinces of Iran is very common. When pesticides enter water, these toxins are easily distributed in the environment and have the ability to bioaccumulate in living organisms. Exposure to such contaminated water is harmful to human health and living organisms. In this study, the latest ecological status of the wetland was examined in terms of changes in physicochemical parameters, changes in physicochemical parameters, and widely used agricultural pesticides in water, sediment, and fish samples in the three eastern, middle, and western parts of Anzali Wetland.Materials and Methods: In this study, the sampling was conducted from 10 stations in the Wetland in the spring of 2021. Water samples were collected from a depth of 1 m, sediment samples were collected using a Grab van Veen sampler, and the fishes were collected by netting. A multi-parameter water quality meter was used to measure pH, Electrical conductivity (EC) and Total dissolved solids (TDS) parameters, and the Winkler method and standard methods were used to measure Dissolved oxygen (DO), Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), and Chemical oxygen demand (COD), respectively. The levels of aldrin, dieldrin, endrin, diazinon, malathion, and azinphos-methyl in the samples were measured using a Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). For statistical analysis, univariate and multivariate statistical tests including cluster analysis, principal component analysis (PCA), and non-metric multidimensional scaling (n-MDS) were used.Results: In this study, the total mean of BOD, COD, DO and depth in the Wetland were 26, 46.6, 4.09 (mg/L) and 1.2 m, respectively. The maximum salinity (ppt) and EC (mS/cm) in the Wetland were recorded at depth of 0.6 (m), in the middle part of the wetland 3.84 and 6.8, respectively. The mean TDS in the Wetland (g/L) was 1.11 and the mean turbidity (NTU) was 3.57. The maximum sand content in Anzali Wetland (69.67%) was recorded in the middle part of the wetland and the maximum silt content (37.50%), clay (32.25%) and total organic matter content (12.41%) were recorded in the western part of the wetland. The mean concentration of OCPs and OPPs in the water of the entire wetland was measured as 1.3 and 0.7 µg/L, respectively, but they were not detectable in the sediment and muscle of fish samples.Discussion: In the present study, the reason for the low DO and high BOD and COD values in the eastern part may be due to the pollution of the Pirbazar River and the increase in the pollution load due to the entry of sewage. The pH of the water indicates that the pH was uniform and alkaline in the wetland. The TDS value was higher in the middle part of the wetland, which in some places could be related to agricultural and industrial activities or particles resulting from the remains of phytoplankton bodies. With the increase in the amount of organic matter and clay in the western part of the wetland, the Cation exchange capacity (CEC) value also increased. The PCA results in Anzali Wetland showed that sediment variables, like water parameters, can play a significant role in explaining changes in the wetland ecological system. The results of the cluster test and n-MDS based on environmental physicochemical conditions indicate differences between different parts of the wetland, and overall, this issue can reflect the effect of the specific hydrodynamic and topographic conditions of the region. One of the reasons for the absence of OCPs and OPPs in this study could be the influence of environmental parameters, especially pH, which was alkaline and caused the removal of these toxins.
Introduction: In response to the growing environmental challenges in Iran, particularly regarding the implementation of policies in governmental organizations, this study was designed and conducted with the aim of identifying key components for implementing environmental protection based on the application of knowledge management. In this study, knowledge management is not treated as a variable, but rather as a conceptual and operational framework that, through the three dimensions of knowledge acquisition, knowledge sharing, and knowledge evaluation, facilitates the effectiveness of policy implementation in the environmental sector. The theoretical framework of the study is based on Edwards’ four-component model, which was expanded by adding the organizational culture component and adapted to the institutional conditions of Iran. By reviewing previous implementation models and integrating them with the knowledge management literature, this framework offers enhanced analytical capacity for understanding institutional barriers and capabilities.Materials and Methods: This research, derived from a doctoral dissertation, follows an applied-developmental approach and is conducted as a descriptive-survey study. Data were collected from 50 experts in the fields of environment and knowledge management within governmental organizations, using a researcher-developed questionnaire and analysis of national development documents. The research instrument included 15 items across five initial components, which were reduced to four main components through factor analysis. The validity of the instrument was confirmed by expert opinion, and its reliability was measured using Cronbach’s alpha (α = 0.810). Additionally, the results of the KMO test (0.643) and Bartlett’s test (χ² = 389.270, p < 0.001) confirmed the adequacy of the data for factor analysis. Furthermore, Pearson correlation coefficients were used to analyze the internal relationships among the components, with the results forming the basis for future research. The combination of statistical methods and official document analysis established an integrated, evidence-based approach in this study.Results: Factor analysis revealed that 15 items loaded onto four main components: organizational structure (3 items), organizational communication (3 items), resources and implementers’ orientations (6 items), and organizational culture (3 items), collectively explaining 69.40% of the total variance. All items had factor loadings above 0.522. The results indicate that the “resources and implementers’ orientations” component, with the highest eigenvalue (3.377) and the greatest contribution to explaining total variance (22.51%), is considered the most important factor in the successful implementation of environmental policies. Meanwhile, despite a lower average in descriptive assessments, the organizational culture component showed high conceptual coherence and strong factor loadings (up to 0.856), playing a foundational and "soft" role in explaining perceptual differences among respondents.Discussion: A review of Iran’s five-year development plans shows that all four identified components are also reflected in these documents, though with varying intensity and coherence. For example, the “resources and implementers’ orientations” component is implicitly addressed in the third and sixth development plans, and the organizational structure is highlighted in the environmental chapter of the fourth plan. Organizational culture, too, appears as a key policy axis in the form of education and public awareness, though it faces challenges in practical implementation. This overlap and comparative analysis reinforce the practical validity of the proposed conceptual framework. The main innovation lies in conceptualizing knowledge management as a comprehensive conceptual foundation rather than a standalone variable, permeating all components. Additionally, introducing culture as an independent, measurable component distinguishes this framework from previous studies. Accordingly, this research, alongside its theoretical grounding, possesses empirical validity and can serve as a basis for developing operational models in environmental policymaking. The findings pave the way for designing a model for environmental policy implementation in subsequent stages and offer decision-makers and policymakers a clear, evidence-based framework, laying the foundation for policy model design at both sectoral and cross-sectoral levels.
Introduction: According to the statistics published by the Global Footprint Network, Iran's ecological deficit, which was 0.55 per capita global hectare in 1961, has increased by 554% to 2.50 per capita global hectare in 2022; which shows that the existing supply of natural resources in Iran is not enough to maintain the current production and consumption patterns. Based on this, the analysis of the determining factors of environmental quality indicators in Iran can provide valuable suggestions in the field of designing appropriate environmental policies. In this regard, the main goal of this study is to examine the causal determinants of environmental indicators in Iran.Materials and Methods: The present descriptive-analytical and applied study uses time series data from 1970-2022 to examine the causal determinants of environmental indicators in Iran using two traditional indicators of CO2 emission and ecological footprint (EF) and also the new index of load capacity factor (LCF) which simultaneously considers the supply and demand of nature. Based on this, the causal effect of economic growth, natural resources dependency, urbanization, and renewable energy consumption on environmental quality indicators has been investigated by applying the new approach of Bootstrap Fourier Granger Causality in Quantile (BFGC-Q) during the years 1970-2022. Unlike previous Grangerian causality tests, this approach considers the issue of non-linearity and structural breaks and can provide useful information about a causal-tail relationship.Results: The results show that urbanization in all quantiles (10th-90th) leads to an increase in CO2 emissions and EF and a decrease in LCF. GDP per capita in the low and middle quantiles (10th-50th) shows a negative causal relationship with LCF and a positive causal relationship with EF in the initial 10th and upper 70th quantiles. Furthermore, GDP per capita in all quantiles (10th-90th) has increased CO2 emissions. Regarding the rent of natural resources, in general, the results of this research support the neutral hypothesis and the absence of a causal relationship. Renewable energy consumption also leads to an increase in LCF in all quantiles (10th-90th) and a decrease in EF in 10th-70th quantiles. While this variable did not have a significant causal relationship with CO2 emissions in any of the quantiles.Discussion: The results show that depending on the investigated environmental index, the effects of economic growth, dependence on natural resources, urbanization, and renewable energy consumption on ecological quality are somewhat different. Based on the results, urbanization has led to the destruction of the country's environment. Therefore, policymakers and urban planners in the process of expanding urbanization must pay attention to the prevention of environmental destruction and prioritize the correct energy consumption. The positive causal effect of GDP per capita in all quantiles on CO2 emissions shows that growth and development paths in Iran are more carbon-intensive. Therefore, efforts should be made to achieve higher economic growth, which requires the use of more energy as one of the most important production factors, by creating and strengthening clean energy and also using technologies to be advanced, efficient, and environmentally friendly in the production process. Considering the positive effect of renewable energy consumption on the LCF index and its negative effect acton EF, it can be said that the increase in renewable energy consumption has reduced the ecological footprint and surpassed its biological capacity in Iran; Based on this, increasing the share of renewable energy can help improve the quality of the environment in the country.
Introduction: Each ecosystem provides essential goods and services that support human needs and community well-being. However, wetlands in both Iran and globally are confronted with significant challenges, including reduced area, water pollution, and changes in land use, all of which threaten their sustainability. Consequently, the protection of these critical ecosystems is crucial for their sustainable management. To address this, the DPSIR framework has been developed in recent years to assess environmental changes and analyze the impacts of human activities on the environment. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate the environmental status of Alagol Wetland using the DPSIR framework and to explore the cause-and-effect relationships between human activities and environmental impacts.Materials and Methods: This study was conducted in four main steps: identifying the driving forces affecting the status of wetlands, examining the pressures on the current environmental condition and assessing the negative impacts; adapting and localizing the data for the Alagol Wetland through field visits and interviews with local residents and experts; describing the environmental condition of the Alagol Wetland within the DPSIR framework and identifying and proposing the most significant solutions to reduce, compensate or resolve the issues facing the studied wetland, using a Likert-scale questionnaire.Results: The study findings indicated that population growth, climate change, development of settlements and rural areas, water demands of surrounding communities, road and transportation infrastructure development, lack of integrated management, weak regulations, agricultural activities, tourism, industrial growth and development, aquaculture and fisheries, livestock farming and excessive grazing are the primary driving forces that, through a series of cause-and-effect relationships, have led to pressures, conditions and impacts. To manage these effects and improve the status of the wetland, 65 response strategies were presented. After evaluation by experts, the most important strategies were identified for each driving force. Key strategies include monitoring peripheral lands and defining wetland boundaries, using modern irrigation systems, preventing land grabbing, integrated water management, adhering to environmental development requirements as per the National Land Use Master Plan, promoting a comprehensive wetland management approach, maintaining hydrological balance in the basin, planning tourism development in accordance with regional capacities, applying advanced technologies in conservation, preserving native aquatic species and zoning appropriate grazing areas around the wetland.Discussion: The environmental status assessment of Alagol Wetland using the DPSIR model clarifies the cause-and-effect relationships between human and natural factors and their impacts on the wetland ecosystem. Driving forces such as population growth and climate change exert pressure on the wetland environment, leading to negative changes in water quality, habitats and biodiversity. Since these changes pose serious threats to the wetland's sustainability, identifying and implementing management solutions is essential. The proposed measures, alongside strengthening integrated management and active community participation, require continuous monitoring, sufficient resource allocation and the development of effective regulations for the protection of this valuable ecosystem. In this regard, the developed indicators of the DPSIR model can serve as effective tools for policymakers and managers in planning and decision-making processes related to the conservation of Alagol Wetland.
Introduction: Inappropriate industrial and mining development in the suburbs of cities with a desert climate (dry subtropical) have resulted in dust pollutions. The soils in the study area were naturally alluvial soils with medium loamy sand surface texture, without layer restrictions and without salinity. The vegetation on the soils was naturally weak to medium pasture type with a predominance of Artemisia plant species (Artemisia spp.) and Tamarix species (Tamarix spp.) in the waterways. The dangers of aerosols are not hidden from anyone. In order to mention its importance, in terms of health and treatment, we can refer to all kinds of dangerous diseases caused by the entry of silica particles or compounds such as iron into the lungs. On the other hand, suspended particles can affect solar radiation in terms of light physics and cause conditions such as greenhouse gases and local warming. In this study, soil was used as an indicator of the impact of industries and mines on the environment. Therefore, this study aimed to identify dust pollution hotspots and distinguish areas on the outskirts of Yazd city up to 30 kilometers from Yazd city where metal industries and sand and gravel mines had affected soil characteristics.Materials and Methods: The concentration of airborne particles in the study area where various industries were located was measured by a portable dust sampler, HazDUST Model 5000, as a mobile devise. For this purpose, in the study area, the mobile device for measuring the amount and size of suspended particles was used with the filters:10.0, 2.5 and 1.0 microns. Also, from the dusts of the different studied areas, scanning electron microscope imaging test was performed along with the supplementary X-ray energy dispersion analyzer (ESM-EDX). To investigate the effect of suspended particles on soil and to obtain the effects of dust on soil types, soil sampling was carried out separately in the areas of steel industry expansion and sand and gravel mines up to 30 kilometers west of Yazd city. Results: The obtained results showed that the soil types were different in the chemical and physical properties. In such a way, the areas with metal industrial dust originating from alloy steel factories were separated with suspended particles less than one micron compared to the dust from sand mines with suspended particles less than ten microns. Also, these suspended particles were deposited on the soil, which was confirmed according to the field observations of the changes in the surface horizons, such as the color of the soil horizon and the formation of the horizon necessary for the formation of industrial soil or Technosol according to the FAO WRB 2015 soil classification. More than 95% of the soils were a mixture of natural soil and technosol (industrial soil). These soils had been altered from their natural state by the effects of industrial and mining development.Discussion: Sand mines and steel factories have managed to intensify the process of human-induced desertification in Yazd. Although the fields of work and expertise of this research have been in the field of natural geography and soil science. It can be expected that the presence of suspended particles has been able to affect people's health as well as other components related to a desert ecosystem such as vegetation and soil biomes. Since soil is one of the integral parts of every native life like the deserts of Yazd, it can be concluded that by changing the soil from natural state to industrial state, the soil is destroyed or goes through its destructive stages. With this feature, it is possible to raise the possibility of human desertification in the outskirts of Yazd city. It is necessary to take care of this matters more seriously by technical experts in addition to soil protection, also regarding in health and medical affairs.
Introduction: Contamination of agricultural land with heavy metals such as Pb, Cd, Zn, and Ni from sources such as phosphate fertilizers, the use of sewage sludge, urban effluents and domestic sewage is one of the important problems and a serious threat to the environment and human health. Heavy metals, due to their non-degradability and low mobility, have harmful physiological effects on the health of living organisms and the environment. When heavy metals enter the human body by any way, there is a possibility of stimulating the body's immune system and may cause nausea, anorexia, vomiting, digestive abnormalities and dermatitis. In order to solve the problem, first of all, the amount and manner of contamination dispersion should be determined in the suspicious lands. Then, by identifying areas with different levels of contamination, management strategies can be proposed in the discussion of land use planning to restore contaminated areas. The purpose of this research is to determine the amount of heavy metal contamination (such as Cd and Cu) in the agricultural farms of the Shabstar Plain using contamination indices and theirs zoning. Materials and Methods: This research was carried out in the Shabstar plain, which is located in 70 km west of Tbriz city and north of Lake Urmia. 60 samples were prepared from the depth of 0-30 cm and transferred to the laboratory. Sampling locations were done using a specific geographic locator device. The concentrations of Cd and Cu in extracts prepared from soil samples using TEA and DTPA were measured using an Inductively Coupled Plasma Spectrometer (ICP). Then contamination indices including pollution index (PI), geo accumulation index (Igeo), enrichment factor (EF) and Nemerow pollution index (PIn) were calculated. Finally, the spatial distribution of Cd and Cu contamination in the studied area was done based on contamination indices and by using the Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW) method.Results: The results showed that the studied soil samples were heterogeneous in terms of salinity and organic carbon content, but they were homogeneous in terms of lime content. The average concentration of Cd is 1.051 mg/kg and more than the upper limit of the international standard and less than the upper limit of the Iranian standard. In terms of PI, the studied soils are in the moderate contamination class for Cd (PI=1.05) and low contamination class for Cu (PI=0.03) and in terms of the Igeo index, in the moderately/strongly contamination class for cadmium (2.83= Igeo) and uncontaminated for Cu (Igeo = -5.05). In terms of the enrichment factor, the studied soils were in the Extremely high pollution class for Cd (EF=76.1) and in the minimum pollution class for copper (EF=0.35). Discussion: The results of Nemerow pollution index (PIn) showed that the soils of the studied area are in the slightly polluted class in terms of the Cu (PIn = 1.38). The spatial distribution predicted by the mathematical method of Inverse Distance Weighting for pollution indices (PI, Igeo and EF) showed that the studied area with agricultural use had the highest amount of these indices for Cd. The pollution of Cd was in extremely high to moderate pollution classes. The contamination of Cu was in the low to non-contaminated class. To reduce soil contamination with heavy metals, the use of green technology or phytoremediation is suggested.
Introduction: The international mangrove wetland of Khurkhoran on the southern coast of Iran, plays an important role in absorbing and stabilizing the retention of nutrients such as nitrogen and phosphorus, which reduces pollution of water resources and improves water quality. The increase in the use of chemical fertilizers in agriculture, the entry of urban and industrial wastewater, and changes in land use have put great pressure on this ecosystem and have increased the nutrient load in the waters entering the wetland. Therefore, the quantification and economic valuation of this ecosystem service is essential for the planning and sustainable management of wetlands. This study aims to: (1) Quantitatively assess the retention of nitrogen and phosphorus by the Khorkhoran International Wetland; (2) Map the spatial distribution of nutrient export and retention; and, (3) Estimate the economic value of this ecosystem service using both the avoided cost and benefit transfer approaches.Materials and Methods: In this study, the NDR model from the InVEST software package was used to simulate the export and retention of nitrogen and phosphorus in the study area. The key input data included a land use map, a precipitation and surface runoff map, DEM, and nutrient loads from agricultural and urban activities. The input data were processed in the ArcGIS software environment and the model was run. Subsequently, the model outputs included maps of extracted nutrient export and retention and key areas of this service were identified. Then, using the avoided cost and the benefit transfer methods, the economic value of the nutrient retention service was calculated based on the replacement cost of treating these materials in wastewater treatment engineering systems.Results: The modeling results showed that the Khorkhoran mangrove wetland annually retains 243.75 and 834.18 tons of phosphorus and nitrogen respectively, which prevents these substances from entering water resources and causing problems such as algal blooms. Also, areas covered by mangrove forests and coastal marshes played the greatest role in retention these elements, while agricultural and urban areas showed the highest nutrient export. The annual phosphorus and nitrogen export from the study area was estimated to be 21.48 and 90.52 tons respectively, indicating the negative effects of human uses on the nutrient load entering the wetland. The economic value of the nutrient retention service was calculated. Accordingly, the cost of removing each kilogram of nitrogen and phosphorus in wastewater treatment systems was estimated to be 2.7 and 14.3 US$ in 2023. Considering the amount of nutrient retention in the wetland, the total value of this service in the study area was estimated to be 2639503 million Iran’s rials (Equal to US$ 5738050).Discution: The results of this study emphasize that the Khor Khoran mangrove wetland is an effective natural filter for reducing water resource pollution. Preservation and management of this wetland can be a suitable economic alternative to costly wastewater treatment methods. As a result, in environmental management policies, paying attention to ecosystem services such as nutrient retention can significantly contribute to improving water quality and reducing pollution. In addition, it is suggested that future research should use field data and more accurate modeling methods to better assess these services. To improve the accuracy of predictions and assessments of ecosystem function, it is also necessary to simulate various climate conditions and examine the results under different scenarios.
Introduction: Climate change is one of the most pressing environmental challenges of the modern era, impacting natural resources and human livelihoods through rising temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods. Due to its predominantly arid and semi-arid climate, Iran is particularly vulnerable to these changes. Evidence suggests that regions such as the northwest and the Zagros Mountains have experienced concurrent temperature increases and precipitation declines, a trend that is projected to intensify in the near future. This study aims to assess and visualize Iran’s climatic conditions over the next 20 years, quantifying the magnitude and extent of projected changes to inform national and regional planning efforts.Materials and Methods: This research utilizes climate projections from the sixth generation of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under four greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2021–2040, comparing them with the historical baseline (1995–2014). In the first step, raw global climate model outputs were downscaled using the Change Factor (CF) method. Minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation data were extracted for both the baseline and future periods, and delta values were calculated for each variable. To correct biases and better capture local variability, observational data from the TerraClimate database (with a spatial resolution of approximately 5 km) were employed. Subsequently, predictive maps for minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation over the next 20 years were generated. To integrate these variables into a single metric, Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) was applied, where precipitation was assigned a higher weight through linear fuzzy membership functions. This approach yielded a composite index for assessing climate change intensity across the country. Finally, to compare historical and future trends, the climate change intensity map for the past 64 years was integrated with the projected two-decade map using an equal-weighted WLC framework.Results: Findings indicate that in the next two decades, a significant increase in both minimum and maximum temperatures is inevitable across most parts of Iran. The projected rise may exceed 2°C for minimum temperature and 1.5°C for maximum temperature in some areas. Additionally, model outputs suggest a considerable decline in precipitation over parts of the Zagros region, the northwest, and critical watersheds such as Lake Urmia. This reduction may exacerbate soil dryness, decrease snowpack reserves, and deplete groundwater resources. The multi-criteria combined model identified the western and northwestern regions as the most severely affected by climate change, as they experience both significant warming and precipitation decline. This pattern is consistent with historical trends observed over the past 64 years, reinforcing the notion that warming and precipitation loss in these areas are part of a persistent, worsening trajectory. These results align with previous national studies and IPCC reports, emphasizing the urgent need for adaptation strategies and effective water resource management.Discussion: This study highlights that in the coming decades, Iran will face heightened challenges related to increasing temperatures and declining precipitation. The warming trend and decreasing rainfall, particularly in the Zagros and northwestern regions, could have irreversible consequences for mountainous ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and local livelihoods. Future research should incorporate dynamic downscaling models to provide a more detailed analysis of extreme climatic events and expand the station-based monitoring network to enhance data accuracy. Additionally, national and regional water and land management policies, public awareness campaigns, and greenhouse gas emission reduction strategies must be prioritized to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change in the years ahead.
Introduction: Global warming is one of the most critical challenges of the 21st century, with extensive implications for ecosystems, the environment, and human societies. Human activities such as fossil fuel consumption, deforestation, and industrial processes have led to a substantial increase in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, resulting in global warming and a cascade of environmental effects. Understanding the impacts of global warming on the environment is crucial for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore, research on topics such as global warming is of paramount importance.Materials and Methods: This study utilized daily climatic data, including minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, and sunshine hours from 120 synoptic stations across Iran over 30 years (1993-2022). The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were employed to assess the trends in annual average temperature changes. To forecast future temperatures influenced by global warming, outputs from the CanESM2 model (from CMIP5 models) were used under two scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. Given the large-scale outputs of these models, downscaling was necessary for station-level studies, and the LARS-WG model, one of the most widely used downscaling models, was applied.Results: The results indicated a significant increasing trend in the annual average temperature of Iran, with a slope of 0.053 (p<0.05) during the base period. The most increasing trend was observed at Bostan and Qorveh, while the least was observed at Shiraz. Out of the 120 stations, 11 showed no significant trend, with only the Quchan station exhibiting a decreasing trend (not significant at the 5% level). Under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the annual average temperature in Iran is projected to reach 18.84 and 19.6°C during 2021-2040, 19.40 and 20.19°C during 2041-2060, 19.42 and 21.7°C during 2061-2080, and 18.88 and 22.99°C during 2081-2100, respectively. In the base period, the temperature range across all stations was between 8-28°C, while by the end of the century, the distribution of stations will shift towards higher temperatures, with no station experiencing an annual average temperature below 14°C under the RCP8.5 scenario. Spatially, southern regions will experience the most significant temperature increases, with average annual temperatures projected to rise to between 32 and 34°C by the century's end under the pessimistic scenario.Discussion: The findings of this study indicate that the increasing trend in Iran's average temperature observed in recent years will continue in the future, albeit with variations across different climate scenarios. Therefore, appropriate planning can help mitigate the extent of the increase and potential damage. Given the impact of temperature on the environment, economy, and all aspects of human life, it is essential to address this issue to ensure risk management and informed decision-making are conducted with precision planning. The results of this research will assist managers and planners in implementing sustainable strategies for adapting to future conditions and enhancing resilience. The results of this study highlight a concerning trend of increasing temperatures in Iran due to global warming, emphasizing the urgent need for effective planning and adaptation strategies to mitigate its impacts on the environment and society.
