The aim of the paper is to determine the degree of institutionalization of and the processes that are in place for the selection of a candidate for the highest office of the state in the Persian Gulf monarchies. The research is based on qualitative methods, including analyses of legal acts and available data from six countries in the region: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The authors propose a new and comparative approach to the study of candidate selection and succession in the Persian Gulf states by creating and verifying a theoretical model of candidate selection and a scale of inclusiveness. In the course of the analyses, a hypothesis was positively verified, which assumed that the selection of candidates for the crown prince is a process with a low degree of institutionalization, and the decision to choose the successor to the monarch/president belongs to a narrow circle of the ruling family. The degree of inclusiveness of the selectorate in the process of selecting a candidate or leader varies in individual countries, although a model granting competence to the ruler or his closest family predominates.
TURKMENISTAN-AFGHANISTAN-PAKISTAN-INDIA (TAPI) GAS PIPELINE: REACTIVATION? September 11, 2024 in the media notification of the signing of the agreement on the implementation of the Afghan extension of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan- India-Pakistan gas pipeline. The reactivation of this idea means a return to the early 90s of 20th century. On one hand, the project was accused by the analytics as a completely unrealistic utopia. On the other hand, there were those who considered the project to be real and worth the commitment. It is also worth considering this project, especially how international events and the passage of time will affect its shape.
EVOLUTION OF THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES’ FOREIGN POLICY IN THE MIDST OF GREAT POWER COMPETITION The events of the second decade of the 21st century accelerated a strategic shift in the United Arab Emirates’ position in the Middle East, particularly in the Arabian Peninsula region. Faced with rival external great powers and intensified regional competition, the UAE has not remained on the sidelines, but has decided to actively pursue its ambitions in the region. The Emirate’s political and military involvement in the war in Yemen (and support for the Southern Movement), geopolitical aspirations in the Horn of Africa and Libya, rapprochement with Israel, and “strategic calculation” (hedging) in a situation of rivalry between the United States and China clearly indicate Abu Dhabi’s subjectivity as an increasingly independent actor in the regional security environment.
THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT OF GHAZNI 2009-2014 PROVINCE IN THE PCR PROCESS: WOMEN’S PARTICIPATION IN OPERATIONALIZATION OF CULTURE The article examines the role of women in the operational environment of Ghazni Province, Afghanistan, during intensified counterinsurgency operations (2009-2014), focusing on the Polish Military Contingent and the post-conflict reconstruction process. It analyzes how gender dynamics shaped the operationalization of culture and whether women were integrated into operational planning. The study is based on qualitative interviews and analysis of NATO and doctrinal documents. The findings indicate that women played a significant role in cultural mediation, communication, and stabilization efforts. However, their contribution remained informal and was not systematically embedded in mission design. Cultural awareness was applied in an ad hoc manner rather than as a structured planning component. The article concludes that integrating gender- sensitive cultural analysis could enhance operational effectiveness. Women should be recognized as integral actors within the security and reconstruction architecture.
THE MILITARY INDUSTRY IN THE STATES OF THE PERSIAN GULF SUBREGION The aim of this article is to analyse the condition of the military industries of the states of the Persian Gulf subregion. The article discusses both the achievements to date and the main problems and challenges that the states face in their attempts to develop their own military industries. The growing awareness of the benefits that can be brought by the development of own military industry, as well as the threats resulting from further, total dependence on arms purchases abroad, has caused individual states to approach this issue in different ways and with varying degrees of commitment. So far, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have developed their arms industries to a greater extent, although their approaches differ significantly. For Saudi Arabia, its own arms industry is to be a technological base that will allow it to equip its own armed forces with modern military equipment and to become largely independent from foreign suppliers. In the UAE, on the other hand, the focus has been on developing its own competences in those areas of arms production where the country could gain a competitive advantage or find market niches. Despite some positive trends, the arms industry of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf subregion remains underdeveloped and the ratio of investment volume to profits received, both in the context of security and economics, remains unfavourable.
WHY CONSOCIATIONALISM FAILS IN LEBANON? THE ROLE OF POLITICAL ELITES IN THE POWER-SHARING SYSTEM Power-sharing agreements have been the leading programs for resolving ethnic conflicts around the world for several decades. This solution has been applied in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Sudan, Burundi, Tyrol and Lebanon. However, many researchers and observers believe that power-sharing solutions are short-term and do not stabilize countries in the long run. The most frequently cited example is the Lebanese political system, which has been struggling with political instability, sectarian divisions, institutional paralysis, and external intervention for thirty years. Today’s Lebanon is an example of a religiously divided and undemocratic state, and the cause of its collapse are seen in consociational mechanisms. This study aims to show that the sources of the state’s inefficiency and instability lie in the Lebanese ruling class, not in the model itself. They have used power-sharing mechanisms to appropriate state institutions and resources, reinforce segmental divisions, build their own patronage empires, and, as a result, weaken the state and block the transition to full democracy. The case study of Lebanon shows how consociational tools can be abused in the interests of political elites to maintain their dominance.
THE NETANYAHU PHENOMENON: AN ANALYSIS OF SELECTED ASPECTS OF BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’S WAR-ORIENTED STANCE IN ISRAELI AND WESTERN PUBLIC DISCOURSE AFTER OCTOBER 7, 2023 This article explores the Israeli Prime Minister’s orientation toward the use of force. The first objective is to examine how Benjamin Netanyahu’s stance and actions have been received in public discourse following the events of October 7, 2023. I investigate the personal traits, decisions, and surrounding circumstances that contribute to Netanyahu’s militaristic orientation. The second aim is to assess the extent to which Netanyahu has engaged in actual violence-based policies. These actions are analyzed through the lens of existing research literature on the populist strategies employed by Netanyahu and his government. By treating the figure and decisions of the Prime Minister as part of a broader, ongoing political project directed toward Palestinians, the article revisits the repeatedly examined issue of the legitimization of violence within the Israeli system of power.
THE CONCEPT OF MODERN PROPAGANDA IN THE ARAB WORLD The aim of this article is to describe and elaborate modern concept of propaganda in the Arab world. The analysis focuses on main trends of research in this field, as well as connections between Arabic rhetoric and propaganda theories. The study is divided into three parts. The first includes research on various theories of propaganda in the Arab world. The second part concerns a synthetic description of Arabic rhetoric, and the third section is devoted to confrontation of theories in the field of propaganda with the practical application of rhetorical devices on the basis of manifestos issued by Al-Qaeda and ISIS organizations.
IMPLEMENTATION OF THE VISION 2030 PROJECT IN SAUDI ARABIA: BETWEEN DREAMS AND BUDGET REALITY The article presents the assumptions of the Vision 2030 program and verifies their implementation by 2023/24. The feasibility of achieving the assumptions by 2030 is also assessed. Social transformation plans are close to being realized, while most economic targets are impossible to achieve (targeted levels of GDP growth, increased assets of the Public Investment Fund, increased private sector share in GDP, and increased exports in the non-oil sector). Significant progress has been achieved in all these areas, but too little to achieve the intended results. Only the projected reduction in the unemployment rate is possible. The budget has not been balanced, although its deficit has been reduced. The budget’s dependence on oil revenues has not been significantly reduced. Furthermore, the implementation of Vision 2030 has been associated with a significant reduction in reserves and an increase in public debt, although both indicators are under control.
RESOURCE CURSE AS A DETERMINANT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE ROLE OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY IN SAUDI ARABIA The article examines the role of industrial policy in Saudi Arabia in the context of the “resource curse”. The high share of the oil sector in GDP and exports exposes the country to economic instability. Saudi Arabia faces challenges related to diversifying its economy and reducing its dependence on oil. The analysis is based on new institutionalism, taking into account the impact of the organizational framework and “path dependency” on the effectiveness of industrial policy. The article provides a better understanding of the challenges related to implementing the Vision 2030 strategy in the context of sectoral diversification, sustainable growth, and building competitiveness. Industrial policy faces challenges related to low productivity, an underdeveloped private sector, and difficulties in attracting foreign investment. Industrial policy measures have had limited effects in diversifying Saudi Arabia’s economic base.
ETHNIC DIVISIONS IN WESTERN PAKISTAN POSE A THREAT TO NATIONAL AND REGIONAL SECURITY In the context of the dynamically shifting balance of power in Europe and Central Asia, the influence these regions have on each other and the significance of historical, ethnic, and political determinants in shaping contemporary conflicts cannot be ignored. This text aims to examine the complex geopolitical situation at the intersection of Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, with particular emphasis on the role of the Pashtuns and Baloch as key players in this complex relationship.
This article examines the evolving relationship between the Middle East as a region and the broader field of International Relations (IR) theory. It investigates how different IR paradigms – realism, liberalism, constructivism, postcolonialism, and critical theories – have interacted with or been challenged by the Middle East’s regional dynamics. Drawing primarily from recent scholarship, this work highlights the gap between universal IR theory and region-specific complexities, ultimately proposing a more pluralistic and culturally informed theoretical synthesis.
The Sudanese Rapid Support Forces (RSF), derived from the extremist Janjaweed militias, are participating in Sudan’s civil war by seeking power and terrorising the population, yet without a clearly and convincingly articulated vision or ideological program. Deciphering or reconstructing the drivers of the RSF’s violent approach poses a dual challenge: to researchers, and to the authorities of states and international organizations seeking to end the war. Nevertheless, analyzing the organization’s origins, recruitment dynamics, propaganda, and statements by members and commanders, as well as its methodology of crimes including ethnic cleansing with hallmarks of genocide, enables us to reconstruct the beliefs that underpin the organization and its affiliated groups. These beliefs concern ethnic relations in the region and are predominantly informed by a specific conception of Arabness characterized by a sense of superiority and the historical role of nomadic Arab tribes in the Sahel. This ethnically motivated animosity is directed not only towards indigenous African groups, as in the past, but also towards Arab-Nubian communities in central and northern Sudan. The RSF seek to expel and supplant these communities. Overlaid on this was the ambition to embody the marginalized periphery and exact retribution for the center’s historical domination.
Since the Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power, Türkiye has relied primarily on soft power instruments in its engagement with Africa, including the export of cultural goods and educational exchange programs, and development assistance, as well as the development of economic ties supported by the private sector. Over time, these instruments were increasingly complemented by more assertive forms of engagement, particularly in the areas of security and military cooperation. The aim of this article is to demonstrate how Türkiye has combined soft and hard power instruments in its policy towards Africa from 2002 to 2025. For this purpose, the transformation of foreign policy instruments was analyzed, divided into three phases: (I) Normative legitimation of Türkiye’s presence in Africa, (II) Structural economic anchoring of Türkiye in Africa, and (III) Security projection of Türkiye’s Interests in Africa. The research hypothesis assumes that soft power instruments have played a key role in establishing the long-term foundations of Türkiye engagement in Africa, which were subsequently complemented by growing security and defense cooperation.
FROM DEMOCRACY TO POPULIST AUTHORITARIANISM: THE TUNISIAN CASE UNDER KAÏS SAÏED Tunisia is one of the few Arab countries that underwent a genuine democratic transition following the Arab Spring. While other states experienced authoritarian backlash or conflict, Tunisia initially followed a path of democratization, marked by the adoption of a new constitution in 2014 and democratic elections in 2014 and 2019. However, the lack of socio-economic reforms and unmet expectations led to growing public discontent. A turning point occurred in July 2021, when President Kaïs Saïed suspended parliament and assumed executive powers, initiating a process of power centralization. His actions have been viewed as a halt to democratization and the beginning of re-autocratization. This article analyzes Saïed’s rise and consolidation of power, the socio-political conditions that enabled it, and his style of governance through Pierre Rosanvallon’s typology of populist rule. The article argues that Saïed’s political success stems from the crisis of representative democracy, social frustration, and the strategic use of populist and conspiratorial rhetoric.
The integration of artificial intelligence and predictive algorithms into political processes marks a profound transformation of governance and democracy. In Italy, the adoption of digital tools by political parties and institutions – such as the Rousseau platform of the Movimento 5 Stelle and La Bestia of Lega – demonstrates how politics is increasingly shaped by algorithmic optimization logics, reducing the space for traditional democratic deliberation. This study examines how AI’s role in politics is not always driven by genuine needs but often by external pressures and the imperative to conform to technological modernization models and it explores the risk of a digital technocracy, in which decision-making power progressively shifts from representative institutions to predictive systems. The reflection concludes with the metaphor of the ‘control room’ questioning who truly controls decision-making today: elected representatives or the invisible architectures of algorithms? The article critically examines the future of democracy in an era where society is becoming increasingly algomorphic, shaped by automated systems and post-reality dynamics.
This paper explores the evolving structure of modern liberal democracy in the context of artificial intelligence (AI) integration, proposing that the emergence of artificial cognitive systems – understood as quasi-autonomous agents – has initiated a process of hybridization within democratic communication. These systems, functioning as intermediaries in public discourse, reshape the subject structure of political interaction and challenge traditional models of agency. Drawing on behavioral and functional paradigms in political science, alongside cultural evolution theory and Daniel Dennett’s concept of the Joycean machine, the paper develops a cognitive-cultural framework for explaining political behavior. It argues that political actions are increasingly mediated by cognitive artefacts, necessitating a redefinition of political actors and communicative structures. This interdisciplinary approach offers a novel lens for understanding the transformation of liberal democracy in the age of artificial minds and the future of political agency.
We are currently struggling with two transforming phenomena. On the one hand, we are witnessing an unprecedented in the history of mankind acceleration of the amount of data we have and the corresponding ability to collect and analyse it. On the other hand, we are witnessing a constant struggle to make democracy as good as possible – regardless of how such a normative goal is defined. Among many available solutions, the paper concerns two examples. The first is militant democracy, one of the more traditional attempts at saving democracy. Acknowledging its critical challenges, the other solution that is gaining momentum nowadays is discussed: Artificial Intelligence, which is conceptualized here as cyberocracy. What results is the contention that the discrepancy between technology opportunities and the public’s frustration with democratic politics calls for consideration since it may constitute a basis for mapping out some viable options to reinvigorate democratic systems. Through referring to theory of democracy, sample AI democracy-addressed innovations are related to five dimensions: electoral, liberal, participatory, deliberative, and egalitarian. Such conceptual assessment of AI exemplar technologies designed for diverse forms of engagement in democratic governance offers a conceptual mapping of technologies aligned with democratic principles and allows to move beyond the dominant dystopian approach to the topic.
Political beliefs vary significantly across different countries, reflecting distinct historical, cultural, and institutional contexts. These ideologies, ranging from liberal democracies to rigid autocracies, influence human societies, as well as the digital systems that are constructed within those societies. The advent of generative artificial intelligence, particularly Large Language Models (LLMs), introduces new agents in the political space-agents trained on massive corpora that replicate and proliferate socio-political assumptions. This paper analyzes whether LLMs display propensities consistent with democratic or autocratic worldviews. We validate this insight through experimental tests in which we experiment with the leading LLMs developed across disparate political contexts, using several existing psychometric and political orientation measures. The analysis is based on both numerical scoring and qualitative analysis of the models’ responses. Findings indicate high model-to-model variability and a strong association with the political culture of the country in which the model was developed. These findings highlight the need for more detailed examination of the sociopolitical dimensions embedded within AI systems.
The essence of a democratic system lies primarily in active citizens who give mandates to politicians they trust. This does not absolve citizens of their responsibility for the state, as democracy and freedom must be nurtures to be enjoyed in the future, Meanwhile, with each passing decade since the political transformation in Central and Eastern Europe and so called ‘Big Bang’ enlargement of the European Union in 2004, it seems that citizens’ vigilance in this regard is weakening and more and more problems are emerging. Low voter turnout, the erosion of democratic values, citizens’ distrust of their voting power, a lack of political culture, and the rivalry between national and EU interests are just some of the issues that are increasingly discussed in public discourse. Added to this is a controversial new phenomenon that is increasingly impacting our private and social lives – the artificial intelligence revolution. In the background, war on the EU’s eastern border, instable transatlantic relations under Trump’s Administration and intensified nationalist and right-wing movements. This article attempts to answer the questions: what is the true condition of democracy in the EU during this difficult time, as perceived by young citizens, in whose hands rests the future of both the EU and democracy itself ? Do the language we use, and artificial intelligence technology influence the form and essence of democracy? What steps, if any, are being taken to prevent humans from single-handedly destroying democracy, international relations, freedom, and the human element in politics through AI?
