Aim: This study analysed the impact of global economic dynamics on the performance of the manufacturing industry in ASEAN. Methodology: The Panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was employed as a quantitative approach to examine both the short-term and long-term relationships between economic growth, exchange rates, inflation, and manufacturing value added in ten ASEAN countries from 1997 to 2022. Results: The results indicate that inflation exerts a significant negative effect on manufacturing value added in both the short and long run. Exchange rate movements exhibit a delayed negative short-run effect, whereas their long-run effects are statistically insignificant. Economic growth emerges as the principal long-run driver of manufacturing value added. Implications and recommendations: The findings stress the critical importance of macroeconomic stability in bolstering manufacturing resilience. Policymakers are encouraged to adopt proactive and adaptive strategies aimed at inflation control, exchange rate stabilisation, and sustained economic growth to enhance productivity and competitiveness in the ASEAN manufacturing sector. Originality/value: This study contributes to the literature by employing a Panel VECM framework to simultaneously capture short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships among key macroeconomic variables across ASEAN countries. The findings provide new evidence on the dynamic interactions between economic growth, inflation, exchange rates, and manufacturing value added over a period encompassing several major global economic disruptions.
Aim: This study aimed to investigate the impact of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict on the China A-shares market, and the role of environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices in companies’ risk mitigation. Methodology: An event study methodology was employed to analyse the effect of the conflict on the A-shares market. The analysis was conducted using cumulative average abnormal returns (CAAR) for 5,041 companies across multiple trading days post-event. Additionally, multiple linear regression models were utilised to explore the relationship between cumulative abnormal returns (CAR), companies’ financial performance, and their ESG scores. Results: The empirical results revealed significantly negative CAAR on the 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 10th trading days post-event, indicating a negative impact of this conflict on the A-shares market. The regression results further demonstrated a negative relationship between CAR and companies’ financial performance, while CAR and ESG scores remained consistently positive. Implications and recommendations: The findings suggest that during geopolitical conflicts the market may experience heightened panic, adversely affecting stock returns, however companies with strong ESG governance tended to exhibit more stable stock returns. These results offer insights for both researchers and practitioners concerning the role of ESG practices in mitigating the adverse effects of geopolitical conflicts on stock returns. Originality/value: This study provides new evidence on the resilience of companies with strong ESG governance during geopolitical conflicts, contributing to the understanding of the interplay between ESG practices and stock market performance in geopolitical conflicts.
Aim: The purpose of this article was to identify the determinants of low GDP per capita levels accompanied, and driven by, extreme food insecurity in the 25 countries with the lowest GFSI (Global Food Security Index). Methodology: The countries were divided into five groups for descriptive purposes, while the determinants of GDP per capita were examined using a fixed effects panel regression model. Results: The descriptive analysis showed a declining trend in agricultural land per capita and increasing methane emissions per hectare. The panel regression results indicated that electricity availability, energy use per capita, and capital in agriculture were positive and statistically significant determinants of GDP per capita. Agricultural land per capita showed only weak significance at the 10% level, whereas CO₂ and CH₄ emissions were not statistically significant after controlling for country-specific effects. Implications and recommendations: The conclusions drawn from the study provide grounds for seeking recommendations on how to make people less exposed to the risk of food insecurity, especially in Cluster 1 countries. Those five countries, also among the least developed ones, were not in a position to change the course of climate change. Therefore, in order to solve this problem, it is necessary to focus on their economic development. First, greater emphasis must be put on agricultural subsidies in the least developed countries. Second, their governments should focus on how to efficiently absorb technological progress in agriculture. Based on these efforts it would be possible to develop solutions which ensure food security, whilst enabling a reduction in negative environmental impacts. Originality/value: Seeking the determinants of GDP per capita in the context of ensuring food security is an important aspect in view of the forecasted population growth, which in turn implies growing demand for food. The need to ensure food security is a global commitment with both an economic and an ethical dimension. It is therefore reasonable to address that issue, having in mind the progressing globalization and the persisting famine and poverty.
Aim: The article examines the determinants of bilateral energy trade between China and 32 Asian-African Belt and Road countries from 2000 to 2020. It investigates how various economic, technological, environmental, and social factors influence energy trade cooperation in the context of the Belt and Road Energy Cooperation Vision and Action Plan and the Belt and Road Energy Partnership. The authors explored direct effects and mediating mechanisms through bilateral political relations and urbanisation, while also analysing the way these impacts vary across different development stages, regions, and income levels. Methodology: The study employed a gravity model of trade using panel data covering the 21-year period from 2000 to 2020. Key explanatory variables included economic scale (GDP), labour market size, carbon dioxide emissions, air transport volume, mobile cellular subscriptions, renewable energy consumption, electrification rate, medium-high-tech manufacturing value added, and the share of goods and services imports. Bilateral political relations and urbanisation were introduced as mediating variables to examine indirect effects. Robustness tests were conducted to confirm the reliability and validity of the results. The analysis also included heterogeneity analysis to examine variations across different country groupings. Results: The findings revealed that GDP, renewable energy consumption, and import ratios significantly enhanced China's energy imports, while electrification levels had an inhibiting effect. Economic size was found to enhance bilateral political ties, whereas electrification weakened them. Renewable energy consumption constrained urbanisation, while electrification encouraged it. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrated that impacts varied significantly across development stages, regions, and income levels. GDP and trade openness consistently promoted energy trade across all country groups, but environmental and technological factors showed divergent effects between Middle Eastern and non-Middle Eastern economies, as well as between high-income and low-income countries. Implications and recommendations: The article suggests that policymakers should leverage economic growth and trade openness as consistent drivers of energy cooperation among the ‘Belt and Road’ countries. Differentiated strategies are needed for countries at various development stages and income levels. For Middle Eastern and non-Middle Eastern countries, and both high-income lowincome economies, tailored approaches addressing environmental and technological factors are essential. The findings highlight the importance of considering renewable energy consumption and electrification rates when designing energy cooperation policies, as these factors have complex effects on both trade volumes and mediating variables such as political relations and urbanisation. Strengthening bilateral political relations through economic engagement can facilitate energy trade cooperation. Originality/value: This study contributes original insights by comprehensively analysing energy trade determinants within the ‘Belt and Road’ framework using an extensive 21-year panel dataset. It uniquely incorporates mediating variables (bilateral political relations and urbanisation) to reveal indirect mechanisms affecting energy trade. The heterogeneity analysis across development stages, geographical regions (Middle Eastern compared to non-Middle Eastern), and income levels provides nuanced understanding of how factors differentially impact various country groupings. This multidimensional approach offers valuable empirical evidence for understanding the complexities of China's -energy cooperation with Asian-African Belt and Road countries, filling a gap in existing literature on regional energy trade dynamics.
Objective: This article examines the impact of the Human Development Index (HDI), the Rule of Law Index, Financial Institutions and Market Depth Index, and internet access on labour incomes in BRICS countries. Methodology: Utilising annual panel data from 2004 to 2022, this study relied on secondary data sourced from the International Monetary Fund, ILO, UNDP, and the World Bank. The analysis used panel data regression to evaluate the relationship between these variables. Results: The findings revealed that HDI, Rule of Law Index, Financial Development, and Internet access significantly and positively affect labour incomes in the BRICS countries. These results highlight the important role of universal access to quality education, which includes formal education and vocational training, in improving labour market outcomes. Implications and recommendations: Strengthening the Rule of Law Index requires consistent law enforcement, worker protection, and institutional transparency, as demonstrated in South Africa. In addition, driving the growth of the Financial Institution Depth Index requires broader financial inclusion through fintech solutions, microcredit expansion, and regulatory reform. Digital transformation also plays a key role in improving accessibility and financial efficiency. Originality/value: This research supports several Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) achievements. The latest outcome empirically links SDGs indicators with certain institutional and technological variables in influencing labour income. While many previous studies focused on other groups of developed or developing countries, this study analysed ten BRICS member countries.
