The sharp increase in energy prices following the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and subsequent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has reignited interest in the relationship between fuel prices and household expectations. While previous studies have focused primarily on international crude oil prices, considerably less attention has been given to retail fuel price inflation and its effect on consumer confidence. This study uses monthly data covering the period from January 2018 to June 2026 to investigate the dynamic relationship between annual fuel price inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), and the Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) in the euro area. The empirical analysis employs correlation analysis, ordinary least squares regression, and the Chow structural break test to examine the timing and stability of the transmission mechanism. The results indicate an optimal transmission lag of nine months, suggesting that changes in fuel price inflation are gradually reflected in household expectations. Regression analysis revealed a statistically significant inverse relationship between fuel price inflation and the consumer confidence indicator. Furthermore, the estimated effect was significantly stronger during the inflation build-up phase preceding the fuel price peak in April 2022 than during the subsequent unwinding period. The Chow test confirms the presence of a statistically significant structural break, showing that the transmission mechanism depends on the regime rather than remaining constant over time. These findings contribute to existing literature by providing new evidence based on retail fuel prices. They identify the optimal transmission lag and demonstrate the asymmetric response of consumer confidence across the different phases of the inflation cycle.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered the region's socioeconomic conditions, demographic structures and crime patterns, creating new challenges in authors’ understanding of the relationship between economic welfare and crime. While traditional economic theory assumes that improved economic conditions reduce criminal activity by increasing the opportunity cost of offending, wartime conditions can substantially modify these relationships through forced displacement, regional heterogeneity, and institutional disruption. This study examines how the relationship between economic welfare and crime rates in Ukrainian regions changed during the full-scale war, and whether this relationship varies according to regional exposure to military conflict. The study uses a balanced panel dataset covering 25 Ukrainian regions (24 oblasts and the city of Kyiv) from 2018 to 2025. Economic welfare is operationalised using average monthly wages, while crime rates are measured as the number of registered criminal offences per 100,000 people in a given region. The analysis incorporates the proportion of internally displaced persons (IDPs) and distance from the active front line as indicators of the demographic and spatial effects of war. The empirical strategy is based on two-way fixed-effects panel regression models with Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. These were selected following diagnostic testing for cross-sectional dependence, autocorrelation, multicollinearity and model specification. Robustness analyses include alternative functional forms, subsample estimation, sensitivity tests and Granger causality analysis. The results show that the relationship between economic welfare and crime changed significantly following the full-scale invasion. There is no statistically significant direct association between average wages and regional crime rates. However, the interaction between wages and the wartime period is significant, suggesting that war has altered the underlying relationship. The strongest finding is the positive correlation between the proportion of internally displaced people and crime rates, which remains consistent across different models and robustness checks. Furthermore, the impact of economic welfare varies according to regional exposure to war, confirming pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Further analyses indicate that the observed relationships are nonlinear and that registered crime does not provide statistically significant predictive information for macroeconomic forecasting. The present study makes a significant contribution to the extant literature by providing one of the first panel-data assessments of the interaction between economic welfare, forced displacement, wartime spatial heterogeneity, and regional crime in Ukraine. From a methodological perspective, the study highlights the importance of diagnostic-based model selection, demographic controls and spatial measures of war exposure. The findings support the development of evidence-based regional public safety policies and post-war recovery plans.
Subject of Research. This study focuses on the digital banking landscape and the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) in private banking and wealth management in Switzerland. More specifically, it examines how technological innovations – ranging from process automation and generative AI to advanced data analytics – alter the operational dynamics, customer relations, and structural competitiveness of Swiss private banks in the context of shifting client expectations and rigorous regulatory environments. Methodology. The research employs a qualitative analytical research design that uses triangulation of secondary evidence. It systematically integrates and cross-checks academic literature on digital finance, fintech adoption and robo-advisory trust, alongside empirical data, regulatory frameworks and market insights from reputable Swiss and international organisations. The primary data sources analysed were supervisory guides from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), reports from the Swiss Bankers Association, digital maturity benchmarks from Deloitte Switzerland and private banking market profitability assessments from KPMG and PwC Switzerland. Purpose. The main objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive assessment of the impact of digital transformation and the deployment of AI on the traditional Swiss private banking model. By analysing seven key dimensions – technological progress, customer expectations, process optimization, data analytics, risk and security, regulation/compliance, and market trajectories – the study aims to clarify the economic mechanisms driving digital adaptation, identify the structural barriers preventing rapid technology adoption, and evaluate the strategic options available to Swiss banks facing intense global competition and margin compression. Findings and Conclusion. The study reveals a significant discrepancy between Switzerland's position as a global leader in asset management, with CHF 9.3 trillion under management, and its digital banking maturity score of 39 out of 60. Although private banking clients continue to establish relationships based on traditional factors such as reputation, trust and personal referrals, they are also demanding friction-free digital execution, personalised dashboards and virtual investment simulations. AI has been proven to have high economic value when acting as a productivity layer centred around advisors, optimising processes such as client onboarding, document extraction, compliance screening and portfolio monitoring. However, it is not as effective when acting as an autonomous replacement for human relationship managers. Ultimately, the integration of digital banking and AI is causing a clear market polarisation. Large-scale institutions are successfully absorbing the substantial fixed costs associated with technology, data governance and regulatory compliance under the frameworks of FINMA and the European Union (such as DORA and the EU AI Act). Conversely, smaller Swiss private banks are under severe pressure to increase their profitability and consolidate, unless they adopt highly focused niche advisory models. The paper therefore concludes that urgent regulatory attention and strategic repositioning are necessary to preserve the overall image and international attractiveness of the Swiss private banking ecosystem.
In today's dynamic business environment, organisational change is a key management issue, without which it is impossible for organisations to maintain and develop their competitive position. This study focuses on the psychological and cultural factors that cause resistance to change, including cognitive, emotional, and behavioural aspects, which can hinder the success of change initiatives. During an organisational change, the head plays a decisive leadership role. Their strategic vision and ability to motivate employees and communicate the ongoing process transparently determine the effectiveness of the changes. A total of 520 representatives from 'LTD Batumis Tskal', 'LTD Kobuleti Tskal' and other similar entities participated in the aforementioned study. This number enables a generalisation of the study results to the research object. The paper analyses the reasons for and needs of implementing changes, the skills required of managers to manage changes, and the factors that lead to employee satisfaction in the change process. Hypotheses have been put forward to study these issues, and the verification and justification of these hypotheses reveal the necessary conclusions and recommendations for the effective management of organisational changes. Verifying the presented hypotheses enabled conclusions to be drawn about the factors that determine effective management of organisational changes, the role of managers, employee satisfaction and trust in changes. The study aimed to evaluate employees' attitudes towards organisational changes and to identify the factors influencing their trust in management, satisfaction with the organisation, and willingness to change supervisors. The study was conducted using a quantitative method. Data were collected via questionnaires designed to assess employee satisfaction and awareness, as well as the manager's change management skills. The data obtained were processed using the statistical software package SPSS. The study found that a manager's ability to manage change is the most influential factor in determining employee attitudes. High levels of satisfaction with the organisation significantly reduce the desire to change supervisors. Being aware of the results of changes increases both trust and overall satisfaction. Transparent communication from management simultaneously strengthens trust and loyalty. A lack of information and communication gaps increases employee resistance and dissatisfaction.
The paper aims to substantiate the multiplicative nature of contemporary food crises and demonstrate that the weaponisation of maritime chokepoints is the main way this occurs. Departing from the prevailing analytical convention, which examines each global food shock as a discrete episode with its own trigger, transmission channel and policy response, the study argues that the crises of the 2020s are generated multiplicatively. Instead, it argues that the crises of the 2020s are generated multiplicatively; the drivers of food insecurity not only add up, but also reinforce one another through cross-effects, the magnitude of which is determined by the concentration of export supply and the number of logistical bottlenecks simultaneously exposed to military risk. Methodology. The research combines systemic and structural-functional analysis, a comparative case study of three episodes of corridor disruption and a periodisation of global food mega-shocks from 2007 to 2026. It also includes a statistical analysis of the FAO Food Price Index and its commodity sub-indices, as well as the formalisation of driver interaction through additive and multiplicative specifications, complemented by a chokepoint exposure index proposed by the author. The empirical base comprises the Global Report on Food Crises 2026, the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report 2026, publications of FAO, the World Bank, IFPRI, WFP, OECD and CSIS, peer-reviewed literature on food weaponization and wartime grain logistics, and documentary evidence on the July 2026 suspension of shipping in the Ukrainian Black Sea corridor. Results. In all three episodes, the decisive mechanism of trade rupture was not the physical impossibility of passage, but rather the repricing of risk. For example, war-risk insurance premiums in the Black Sea increased fivefold in July 2026, while transit through the Strait of Hormuz decreased by over 70 per cent in the same year. The study identifies the depletion of both reserve capacities of the global fertiliser market, as the 2022 shock disabled the Black Sea capacity and the 2026 shock disabled the Gulf capacity that had previously absorbed it. The wheat rally in July 2026 above 7 USD per bushel, which was a three-year high, was driven by attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure, fertiliser scarcity, and heat stress in key production regions. This is interpreted as direct empirical confirmation of the generation of multiple crises. Practical implications. As trade disruption occurs through financial rather than physical channels, instruments such as war-risk insurance and state guarantees for shipowners acquire the status of food policy tools. These should be complemented by keeping trade open, targeted transfers instead of universal price subsidies, regional fertiliser reserves and preventive financing calibrated to agricultural calendars. Value / Originality. The paper formally distinguishes between additive and multiplicative crisis generation. It introduces the concepts of dual logistical risk and exhaustion of the world fertiliser market's reserve contours. It also provides the first systematic analysis of the complete suspension of shipping in the Black Sea corridor in July 2026, comparing it with the Hormuz precedent.
