Land-based climate policies in forest-rich developing economies are often assessed separately, overlooking how land scarcity, land prices, and macroeconomic constraints shape feasibility. This paper examines the macro-financial challenges of sustainable agriculture and forest conservation in Bolivia, where deforestation is high and fiscal and external constraints bind. We develop a dynamic version of the Exposure to Structural Transformation in an Ecologic-Economic Model (D-ESTEEM) to jointly analyse Bolivia's Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) policies for forest conservation and agricultural productivity. The locally calibrated, environmentally extended input-output model combines continuous-time monetary system dynamics, endogenous land prices, and demand-led adjustments in a small open economy. Forest conservation reduces environmental pressures but raises land prices, weakening the competitiveness of land-intensive activities and worsening fiscal and balance-of-payments pressures. Agricultural productivity measures ease land pressures and support output but rely on imported inputs, reinforcing external dependence. Overall, the NDCs improve economic activity and environmental outcomes while worsening fiscal and trade imbalances. Fiscal consolidation and exchange-rate adjustment mitigate some imbalances but entail inflationary pressures or lower output and employment. Environmental gains may therefore come at the cost of macroeconomic fragility. The paper shows how conservation-induced land scarcity and land price dynamics interact with fiscal and balance-of-payments constraints to determine the feasibility of land-based transitions in resource-dependent economies.
Global use of materials has significantly increased over recent decades, causing a wide range of environmental and social concerns. In this study, we use the latest available data from the UN database on global material flows to investigate the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis for two widely used material flow indicators, Domestic Material Consumption and Material Footprint, for a dataset of 147 countries. Using both semiparametric and parametric methods over a longer period than any previous study (1970–2019), we find no evidence in support of the EKC hypothesis. A concerning result is that material-income elasticities are higher after 1989, implying that the situation has not improved. We conclude that major changes have not yet occurred in the income-material use relationship and that strong policy measures remain necessary to reduce material consumption.
Evidence in economics highlights the importance of the design of agri-environmental contracts for farmers' participation. However, there is little evidence on Western European farmers' preferences between alternative public and private contracts and labels, and on their synergies with participation in farmer clusters. In addition, cultural or institutional differences may lead to variation in contract design preferences across countries. Thus, we apply a discrete choice experiment using an online survey to estimate farmers' preferences for the contract organiser (government, retailer, NGO), the payment method (fixed per hectare payment, price premium associated with a label), and participation in a farmer cluster including technical assistance by a facilitator as part of the contractual arrangement (no farmer cluster, optional participation, mandatory participation) in the United Kingdom, France and the Netherlands. Based on a sample of 767 farmers, respondents prefer, on average, government-organised contracts to contracts from retailers or NGOs. Farmers prefer fixed per hectare payments over price premiums associated with a label and contracts granting the option to join a farmer cluster. The results vary between farm types and countries.
