This study examines the long-run relationships and short-run adjustment dynamics among financial inclusion, unemployment, poverty, and public debt in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1990 to 2023. Given the non-stationary nature of the variables, the analysis employs the Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, Johansen cointegration technique, Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) within a multivariate time-series framework. The results confirm that all variables are integrated of order one and exhibit a stable long-run equilibrium relationship. The FMOLS estimates indicate that financial inclusion and public debt are negatively associated with unemployment in the long run, while poverty is positively associated with unemployment. The VECM results further reveal the presence of short-run adjustment dynamics toward the long-run equilibrium following temporary shocks. These findings highlight the interconnected nature of financial inclusion, fiscal conditions, and social welfare indicators in shaping labour market outcomes. The study contributes to the literature by providing a unified empirical framework that captures both equilibrium relationships and dynamic adjustments among key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria. Policy implications should be interpreted within the context of long-run macroeconomic coordination rather than direct causal effects, particularly with respect to financial inclusion strategies, debt management, and poverty reduction efforts.
This study investigates the determinants of financial literacy among women entrepreneurs in Pakistan’s informal sector and its implications for their entrepreneurial success. Using data from five districts in Punjab, a Bayesian hierarchical logistics model estimated through Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and the No-U-Turn Samplers (NUTS) was applied for robust interference. Results show that 55-59 % of respondents were financially literate, with an overall mean of 61 %. Education, access to credit, and business facilities were positively associated with financial literacy, whereas gender-related constrains and lack of formal education had negative effects. Cultural constrained showed mixed influences, and multiple roles had a slight positive impact. The findings highlight the need for targeted financial literacy programs, focusing on budgeting, financial management, and investment skills, to enhance women’s entrepreneurial capacity and support inclusive economic development.
This paper develops an open-economy model with banks operating under monopolistic competition, two types of credit subject to credit risk—corporate and mortgage—and Basel-type capital requirements. The model is calibrated and estimated using Bayesian methods and Peruvian data. The estimated model is then used for historical shock decompositions, variance decompositions, and impulse response analysis following monetary and fiscal shocks. It also serves to evaluate the effects of regulatory frameworks such as the IRB approaches under Basel II and III.
This paper seeks to explore developments in the Latin American financial system over the last decade by analyzing the factors that determined non-performing loans during 2015-2024 and, above all, by showing that banks responded differently depending on internal and external factors. We explore financial and macroeconomic variables for Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico, and Peru. Specifically, when we split the sample, the results are heterogeneous, with some variables affecting non-performing loans more than others. The split is based on the pandemic, which led to structural changes in the performance of the financial system in emerging countries.
Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis provides a theoretical framework to understand the emergence of endogenous crises in modern economies and how capital flows amplify accumulated imbalances and exacerbate financial constraints in economic units. This inquiry operationalizes the Financial Instability Hypothesis within the Colombian non-listed manufacturing sector through the estimation of discrete-state dynamics and distributional sensitivities. The methodological design constructs two distinct fragility taxonomies to interrogate the determinants of the Hedge, Speculative, and Ponzi classifications. The first specification applies an open-economy cash-flow model derived from Castro (2011), which explicitly internalizes the valuation effects of nominal exchange rate fluctuations on debt service obligations. The second taxonomy, grounded in Nishi (2019), evaluates solvency through the interaction of a flow-based profitability margin and a stock-based liquid asset buffer. To parse the transmission of meso-level economic impulses, the analysis deploys multinomial logit models equipped with a Mundlak correction for correlated random effects alongside recentered influence function regressions. Estimation outputs from the first model confirm that the deterioration of the interest coverage ratio functions as the primary determinant to the Ponzi state, while pre-existing dependence on imported capital acts as a specific transmission channel for currency shocks. The margin-of-safety specification reveals that stock-based liquidity buffers absorb solvency shocks effectively, rendering specific currency exposure variables redundant as predictors of distress. Finally, the dynamic analysis uncovers a temporal asymmetry where contemporaneous sectoral expansions ameliorate immediate default risk through the revenue channel, whereas lagged growth accumulation is associated with the endogenous generation of future fragility. This validates the core thesis of Minsky's framework: that stability breeds instability.
