Measures of regional economic sentiment, extracted from the Beige Book using natural language processing methods, consistently delivered reliable real-time forecasts of US recessions from the mid-1980s through the COVID-19 pandemic recession. Since then, recession risk probabilities have been choppy, with several false alarms. We attribute this unreliability to a post-2021 disconnect between measures of economic activity and the sentiment of business and community leaders.
Different survey-based measures of consumer inflation expectations have diverged in recent months. This Economic Commentary compares these measures and the survey questions underlying them. Our analysis suggests that the divergences across survey-based measures of inflation expectations can be attributed to various features and sample characteristics specific to each survey.
The COVID-19 pandemic caused changes for business across all industries, though the effects were unequal. As lockdown restrictions aimed at mitigating the spread of COVID-19 were relaxed, nominal wage growth rose sharply in leisure and hospitality and in trade and transportation, the two industries with the highest concentration of low-wage workers. In fact, wage growth was most pronounced for workers in the bottom 50 percent of the wage distribution who changed jobs into one of these industries.
The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) influences market interest rates by changing the administered rates that it controls, such as the interest rates on overnight repurchase and reverse repurchase agreements. This requires an ample level of bank reserves. Quantitative tightening (QT) reduces the level of reserves. To guard against supply and demand shocks that drive reserves too low, the FOMC may need to hold a buffer above the point at which reserves become scarce. In this Economic Commentary, I present evidence based on inventory theory that the estimated buffer might be relatively small, though the true number is uncertain. Treating the Federal Reserve's balance sheet as inventory helps to estimate the level of reserves needed to stay above the scarce threshold.
Tracing the evolution of labor demand in the United States, this Economic Commentary reveals that the disproportionate rise in relative productivity of college-educated labor that shaped the latter half of the 20th century has plateaued since 2000. Our analysis suggests that technical change in the 21st century no longer favors college graduates and that further growth in the employment share of college-educated workers will likely lower the premium that college-educated workers receive compared with non-college-educated workers.
