This paper examines the impact of EUR/RON exchange rate policy on the exports in Romania, using monthly average values registered in the period 2006-2014. The results show that between the EUR/RON exchange rate and exports there is a significant direct relationship. The regression model was tested for estimation of the Romanian exports using the EUR/RON exchange rate in the period January 2015 - January 2016. We found that an increase of the EUR/RON exchange rate with 0.0971% determines an increase of real exports with 0.82%, that show the direct relationship is maintained. Thus, our results clearly highlight the importance of exchange rate policy in exports development.
This paper aims to present the theoretical aspects related to international trade and its role in the development of the two economic giants: China and India, as well as the contribution of the above-mentioned countries to the world economy. This issue is considered as topical as international trade has become a primary component of economic activity in most countries. Over time, developing economies such as China and India have made their presence felt in the global economy and have become the factors of its growth. Among other developing countries, China and India are distinguished by a faster growth of the economy. India, due to its distinct development strategy, has the potential to economically influence the activities of the global economy in the years to come even more than China. Respectively, another point that draws attention to this topic is the emergence of China and India as new poles of trade, innovation and growth alongside the USA, Japan and the EU. To analyze the commercial performance in the two countries over the last 20 years, it is necessary to examine their commercial patterns. Although both countries have high openness ratios, they have different trade balances. In the case study, the indicators and external economic activity of these countries will be compared. For this, it is necessary to analyze, assess and compare the magnitude of the international activities of these superpowers.
The work has the purpose of presentation of unemployment in Romania during the period from January 1992 to April 2018, but also to achieve a forecast using stohastic models for the forecast. Issue of unemployment is analyzed on the labor market, being seen as a mismatch between demand for supply of labor. The unemployment rate is one of the factors which needs to be examined in the macro-economic growth, since it has major social and economic implications.
With respect to academic research, women’s labour force participation (LFP) has received steady and considerable attention in developed countries. But in the Indian context, this topic had not seen enough research work until recently. Of late, successive governments in India have been focusing on this important macroeconomic indicator. However, the limitation of most of the studies so far is that they have considered the country as a whole or combined data pertaining to the female and male populations. We note that it is essential to segregate and focus on research on females. Also, considering the vast diversity within India, it is untenable to generalise across geographical territories. Hence, we narrow the scope of our study down to one state, viz. Maharashtra. Further, this paper recognises that even within Maharashtra, there are disparities among different regions and to address this, we introduce a new variable called ‘region’. We use data available from the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) 68th Round for analysis. Drawing on similar research in this area, we build a Probit model for analysis, since the dependent variable (labour force participation) is binary. This paper offers two competing Probit models. The first model takes into account the joint impact of 7 variables – sub round, sector, gender, region, relation to the household head, religion and education level. But, past literature suggests that for women, the marital status and the social group have a major influence on participation in economic activities. Hence, the second model includes these factors. It consists 54 micro segments, based on all possible combinations using the values of four variables – sector, marital status, social group and education level. Such a micro segmented approach helps to identify the likelihood of LFP corresponding to various sub-segments of women. The results show that whether in the rural sector or the urban sector, studying only up to the school level reduces the participation in economic activities of single women. Additionally, in the urban sector, married women who have studied only up to the school level are less likely to enter the labour force.
This paper explores the impact of FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) on Currency Devaluation by reviewing the literature available over the period of 1970 to 2015 and by studying causal impact of FDI on Currency Devaluation across emerging and developed countries. By studying the data for all the countries on the globe, author has been able to conclude that FDI does have a very strong impact on currency devaluation in emerging countries whereas a low/no impact in developed countries. The author has also been able to highlight the factors behind this behavior by studying the key drivers of FDI growth and also the parameters affecting currency devaluation. This relation between FDI and currency value can be a good aide in decision making for central governments while deciding the monetary policies; to the corporate while raising long term finances and also to financial institutions on deciding the asset liability management to meet a company's obligations in order to reduce the firm’s risk of loss from not paying a liability on time.
