This study examines whether the returns of green and brown energy Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are exposed to climate policy uncertainty (CPU), whether this exposure differs between low- and high-volatility market regimes, and whether investor sentiment moderates it. Using monthly data for five green and five brown US-listed energy ETFs from May 2015 to April 2026, a two-state Markov regime-switching model is estimated, with the AAII bull-bear spread employed as a measure of investor sentiment. The estimated regimes are persistent volatility states; for brown ETFs, the high-volatility regime spans the COVID-19 crash, the subsequent recovery and the 2022 energy-price shock. The most important finding is a divergence between the two groups, specifically, increases in CPU are associated with higher returns for all five brown ETFs in the low-volatility regime and for two funds in the high-volatility regime, whereas green ETF returns show no systematic relationship with the CPU index. This divergence is confirmed by a single-regime benchmark and by a green-minus-brown portfolio that accounts for the high correlation among brown funds, and it is robust to controls for extreme market episodes. However, when the November 2016 and November 2024 election months are controlled for, the low-volatility CPU coefficient remains significant at the 5% level only for IXC, so part of the brown exposure comes from these 2 months. Further, the difference in exposure between regimes is not statistically significant for any brown ETF, and investor sentiment does not significantly moderate the exposure at the 5% level, whether sentiment is measured by its change or by its level. Because the CPU index rises with uncertainty about both the tightening and the loosening of climate policy, the positive response of brown ETFs is consistent with expectations of deregulation as well as with uncertainty that delays the energy transition. The findings indicate that broad green and brown labels do not fully describe the exposure of energy ETFs to climate policy uncertainty and that this exposure should be assessed at the fund level.
Tropical cyclones are among the most destructive natural hazards. Although only a small fraction of global tropical cyclones occur over the North Indian Ocean, their impacts can be severe because of the densely populated and low-lying coastal regions surrounding the basin. Cyclogenesis during the peak monsoon months of July and August is exceptionally rare over the Arabian Sea. Cyclone ASNA, which formed in August 2024, was the only peak-monsoon Arabian Sea cyclone identified during 1982–2024. Here, we investigate the oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with its development. During August 2024, the Genesis Potential Index (GPI) exceeded its local 90th percentile over much of the northern Arabian Sea, with potential intensity providing the dominant positive contribution. A fixed-variable decomposition showed that this enhanced potential intensity was primarily associated with anomalously warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Regional SST anomalies reached approximately 2.1 °C and remained above 1.5 °C for more than a month. The warm anomaly developed under favorable surface heat-flux forcing and was subsequently sustained partly by horizontal advection and unresolved ocean processes, despite increasing surface heat loss. The precursor disturbance also encountered enhanced mid-tropospheric moisture and reduced vertical wind shear while crossing northwestern India and approaching the Arabian Sea. Lagrangian analysis identified the Arabian Sea, southern Indian Ocean, and terrestrial evapotranspiration as important diagnosed moisture sources for the associated heavy rainfall on 26 August 2024. Beyond the 2024 event, July–August GPI increased significantly over the northern Arabian Sea during 1993–2024, at approximately 1.215 × 10−16m−2s−1decade−1 (p < 0.001). Trend decomposition showed that this increase was dominated by potential intensity, which was itself primarily associated with SST warming. These results indicate that the large-scale thermodynamic environment over the northern Arabian Sea has become increasingly favorable for peak-monsoon cyclogenesis.
IntroductionClimate change impacts are not gender-neutral, yet standard reporting relies on aggregate household indicators that obscure intra-household power dynamics and diverse individual vulnerabilities. This review assesses gender-differentiated climate resilience in rural farming households and evaluates the extent to which empirical evidence aligns with the gender-responsive, participatory and transparent mandates of the Paris Agreement.MethodsPeer-reviewed studies published between 2015 and 2025 were retrieved from Scopus, Web of Science, AJOL and Google Scholar following PRISMA guidelines. A total of 117 eligible studies were screened and analysed thematically using a hybrid inductive–deductive approach in R. Methodological quality was appraised using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT), and evidence coverage was characterised using GRADE-CERQual adequacy criteria. Policy alignment was mapped against Articles 2.1b, 7.1, 7.5, 11 and 13.ResultsEight interrelated resilience domains were identified: livelihood, water, food, ecological, social, community, agricultural and economic. The review reveals a significant implementation gap between the Paris Agreement and ground-level reality. While Articles 7.5, 11 and 13 emphasise equity and participation, resilience is often achieved through paradoxes of depletion. We propose the Gendered Resilience Paradox Framework (GRPF), a novel theoretical model encompassing resilience as a distributive process rather than a neutral capacity. The framework identifies five interlocking mechanisms—workload-resilience, biological buffer, mobility-stability, restoration-marginalisation and hydrological time-poverty—through which household resilience is achieved via the systematic transfer of adaptation costs onto women’s bodies, time and agency. These paradoxes form a self-reinforcing Depletion Cycle, creating a resilience debt that may compound intergenerationally. A co-occurrence network (n = 117) shows that workload-resilience is the most frequently documented paradox (53.0%) and reveals that embodied paradoxes remain the least studied. Articles 2.1b and 7.1 show partial alignment; Articles 7.5, 11 and 13 show misalignment. Men also face climate-related hardships, including psychosocial stress, migration-induced vulnerabilities and systemic exclusion from aid.DiscussionResilience achieved through depletion is not resilience but a debt. Closing the implementation gap requires distributional indicators, time-releasing infrastructure, secure land tenure, and bundled interventions that address multiple paradoxes simultaneously.Systematic review registrationOpen Science Framework (OSF https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/WFR7Q).
BackgroundClimate change is intensifying droughts and floods in Sub-Saharan Africa, threatening livelihoods, food security, and habitability in vulnerable landscapes. This scoping review synthesizes evidence on Indigenous knowledge for drought and flood forecasting in Malawi, focusing on forecasting indicators, relationships with scientific forecasting, and implications for climate adaptation and habitability.MethodsFollowing the Arksey and O’Malley framework and PRISMA-ScR guidelines, peer-reviewed studies and published reports from 1990 to 2025 were identified through Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Of the 814 records identified, 692 remained after duplicate removal, 93 full-text records were assessed for eligibility, and 20 studies met the inclusion criteria. Evidence was synthesized descriptively and thematically.ResultsGeographically, the evidence was concentrated in southern Malawi, particularly the Lower Shire Valley, with Chikwawa and Nsanje districts represented in 65 and 35% of the studies, respectively. The studies documented ecological, meteorological, riverine and celestial indicators used to anticipate drought and flood conditions and inform local decisions. Reported indicators varied across locations and hazards, with some showing correspondence with scientific understanding of environmental and climate variability, but evidence of predictive reliability was uneven and often based on qualitative or locally reported observations. Integration into formal climate services was constrained by limited validation and documentation, declining intergenerational transmission, environmental degradation, and institutional barriers. Evidence linking Indigenous knowledge-based forecasts to measurable adaptation outcomes was limited.DiscussionIndigenous knowledge-based forecasting is used at community level and provides locally relevant information for preparedness and decision-making, but the evidence remains heterogeneous and insufficient to establish its predictive effectiveness or direct adaptation impacts. Co-production among knowledge holders, scientists, and institutions could support systematic documentation, validation, and context-appropriate integration of Indigenous knowledge into climate services, contributing to the habitability of climate-vulnerable landscapes.
IntroductionEnhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) is a nature-based carbon dioxide (CO2) removal technology that speeds the natural weathering process of rocks by applying finely ground silicate rocks over the land surface. It has been proposed that ERW can remove between 0.5 and 2 Gt CO2 year−1 when deployed at scale. To investigate how soil porewater responds to the dissolution of silicate dust during enhanced rock weathering, we conducted unsaturated soil column experiments amended with olivine (Mg2SiO4).MethodsSince the main principle of ERW-based carbon removal is the reaction of atmospheric CO2 dissolved in rainwater with silicate rocks, leading to release of base cations and bicarbonate ions, we measured cations, anions, pH, alkalinity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in the leached effluent. Complementary solid-phase soil measurements of exchangeable cations, pH, total inorganic carbon (TIC) and total organic carbon (TOC) were performed to improve understanding of weathering product transport and retention, while aqueous speciation calculations provided saturation state information of relevant secondary mineral phases.ResultsWe demonstrate that measurable olivine weathering can occur without proportional short-term export of bicarbonate or DIC, and estimates of potential CO2 removal based on weathering-derived cation release exceeded realized inorganic CO2 removal quantified from bicarbonate and DIC export. Furthermore, the observed increase in DOC export and decrease in surface-soil organic carbon suggest that enhanced weathering may alter soil organic carbon dynamics.DiscussionThe discrepancy between weathering-derived cation release and inorganic carbon export is consistent with temporal decoupling between weathering and realized carbon removal, likely caused by retention of weathering-derived products within the soil. Although the mechanisms underlying the observed changes in organic carbon dynamics require further investigation, these results indicate that ERW may affect soil carbon pools beyond inorganic carbon alone. Although alkalinity export was lower than would be predicted from weathering rates alone, quantification of silicate dissolution remains an important upper-bound indicator of future carbon removal potential. These findings highlight the importance of considering soil retention processes, organic carbon dynamics, and transport timescales when interpreting ERW monitoring data and quantifying carbon removal in agricultural soils.
