We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. This new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.
The n-dimensional fuzzy logic (n-DFL) has been contributed to overcome the insufficiency of traditional fuzzy logic in modeling imperfect and imprecise information, coming from different opinions of many experts by considering the possibility to model not only ordered but also repeated membership degrees. Thus, n-DFL provides a consolidated logical strategy for applied technologies since the ordered evaluations provided by decision makers impact not only by selecting the best solutions for a decision making problem, but also by enabling their comparisons. In such context, this paper studies the n-dimensional fuzzy implications (n-DI) following distinct approaches: (i) analytical studies, presenting the most desirable properties as neutrality, ordering, (contra-)symmetry, exchange and identity principles, discussing their interrelations and exemplifications; (ii) algebraic aspects mainly related to left- and right-continuity of representable n-dimensional fuzzy t-conorms; and (iii) generating n-DI from existing fuzzy implications. As the most relevant contribution, the prospective studies in the class of n-dimensional interval (S,N)-implications include results obtained from t-representable n-dimensional conorms and involutive n-dimensional fuzzy negations. And, these theoretical results are applied to model approximate reasoning of inference schemes, dealing with based-rule in n-dimensional interval fuzzy systems. A synthetic case-study illustrates the solution for a decision-making problem in medical diagnoses.
Cox's Proportional Hazards (CPH) model is quite likely the most popular modeling technique in survival analysis. While the CPH model is able to represent relationships between a collection of risks and their common effect, Bayesian networks have become an attractive alternative with far broader applications. Our paper focuses on a Bayesian network interpretation of the CPH model. We provide a method of encoding knowledge from existing CPH models in the process of knowledge engineering for Bayesian networks. We compare the accuracy of the resulting Bayesian network to the CPH model, Kaplan-Meier estimate, and Bayesian network learned from data using the EM algorithm. Bayesian networks constructed from CPH model lead to much higher accuracy than other approaches, especially when the number of data records is very small.
Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC) is a stochastic algorithm designed to generate samples from a probability distribution, when the density of the distribution does not admit a closed form expression. pMCMC is most commonly used to sample from the Bayesian posterior distribution in State-Space Models (SSMs), a class of probabilistic models used in numerous scientific applications. Nevertheless, this task is prohibitive when dealing with complex SSMs with massive data, due to the high computational cost of pMCMC and its poor performance when the posterior exhibits multi-modality. This paper aims to address both issues by: 1) Proposing a novel pMCMC algorithm (denoted ppMCMC), which uses multiple Markov chains (instead of the one used by pMCMC) to improve sampling efficiency for multi-modal posteriors, 2) Introducing custom, parallel hardware architectures, which are tailored for pMCMC and ppMCMC. The architectures are implemented on Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGAs), a type of hardware accelerator with massive parallelization capabilities. The new algorithm and the two FPGA architectures are evaluated using a large-scale case study from genetics. Results indicate that ppMCMC achieves 1.96x higher sampling efficiency than pMCMC when using sequential CPU implementations. The FPGA architecture of pMCMC is 12.1x and 10.1x faster than state-of-the-art, parallel CPU and GPU implementations of pMCMC and up to 53x more energy efficient; the FPGA architecture of ppMCMC increases these speedups to 34.9x and 41.8x respectively and is 173x more power efficient, bringing previously intractable SSM-based data analyses within reach.
