Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (Bitcoin-ETFs) are gaining traction following their recent regularisation amid global crypto-market uncertainties. While earlier studies have addressed their nascent aspects, this study fills the gap in understanding the risk-return trade-off, interlinkages, and volatility dynamics of nine Bitcoin-ETFs and Bitcoin through generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity-in-mean (GARCH-in-Mean), autoregressive integrated moving average-Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle-GARCH (ARIMA-GJR-GARCH), exponential GARCH (EGARCH) and wavelet analyses. Their estimates reveal that although these ETFs offer high return opportunities, they also exhibit significant volatility clustering, asymmetry behaviour, insignificant risk-return trade-offs, divergent volatility forecasts, and dynamic co-movement patterns with Bitcoin across different time-horizons influencing their hedging and diversification prospects. These results offer new insights into Bitcoin-ETFs challenging the view of them as one-size-fits-all investments and emphasising the importance of informed risk management over speculative intent while highlighting the requirement of their strategic positioning within a diversified portfolio. Moreover, as Bitcoin-ETFs progressively interact with traditional financial markets, these results could assist regulators to strengthen disclosure standards, enhance monitoring, and support targeted investor awareness initiatives.
This study aims to analyse the impact of fiscal dominance on monetary policy in the BRICS countries and Türkiye. The main hypothesis of the study is that in economies where fiscal dominance is high, the independence of monetary policy decreases and inflationary pressures increase. Additionally, by examining the effect of fiscal dominance on aggregate demand, the study aimed to determine whether the structure was Ricardian or Non-Ricardian. The study used panel data analysis for the period 2000-2022, with the Driscoll-Kraay estimator, to examine the effects of fiscal dominance on inflation and aggregate demand. The findings reveal that public borrowing increases the variance of inflation and aggregate demand, limits the effectiveness of monetary policy, causes fluctuations in interest rates, and raises economic vulnerability. In conclusion, it is emphasized that ensuring sustainable fiscal discipline in developing countries is critical for the implementation of effective monetary policies while maintaining the independence of central banks.
This paper examines the relationship between technological change and unemployment dynamics in the United States over the period 1968-2024. We use unemployment intensity as a comprehensive measure of the burden of unemployment, capturing not only its incidence but also the duration of unemployment spells. Technological change is proxied primarily by labor productivity per hour, while total factor productivity (TFP) is used as a robustness measure. Our econometric results indicate a statistically significant long-run relationship between productivity and unemployment intensity. These findings remain robust when controlling for TFP and other macroeconomic variables, including real GDP growth and union density. Overall, our results suggest that technological progress has important implications for the labor market, highlighting the need for policy interventions that promote technological innovation while mitigating its potential adverse effects on job displacement and the duration of unemployment spells.
This paper examines the effectiveness of residential real estate as a hedge instrument against inflation by analyzing quarterly city-level housing price data across 13 cities and one metropolitan area in Indonesia over the period 2003−2025. The empirical results from a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework indicate that residential real estate does not protect from inflationary pressures in the long or short run. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that smaller property sizes perform better in terms of hedging ability, although this is only detected in several cities. Our findings show that residential real estate primarily serves as a consumption good rather than a financial asset for inflation protection in the Indonesian context.
Military sanctions have significant but complex effects on the economies they target, yet empirical research specifically addressing their macroeconomic implications remains sparse. Utilizing a sign-restricted Structural Vector Autoregression approach, the present paper investigates how military sanctions affect economic stability and defence expenditures in Turkey. The empirical findings indicate that sanctions induce temporary disruptions to economic output, unemployment, interest rates, and real exchange rates, while persistently elevating inflation. Notably, defence spending exhibits resilience, increasing rather than decreasing in response to sanctions, reflecting Turkey's strategic prioritization of defence capabilities. These results underline the necessity for robust monetary and fiscal policies, enhanced domestic defence industry capabilities, and proactive diplomacy to mitigate economic vulnerabilities. This study provides valuable insights for policymakers on managing sanctions' economic effects and highlights the strategic advantage Turkey holds due to its increasingly competitive defence exports.
