The impact on fertility of pro-natalist measures adopted in Hungary since the 1950s is assessed. The author states that although measures prohibiting or restricting induced abortion in 1953 and 1974 had no measurable effect on completed fertility, the pro-natalist measures providing social benefits to families with children that were introduced in the mid-1960s resulted in modest increases in fertility. However, these increases were canceled out by the effect of social changes, such as higher levels of female education, which tended to lower fertility.
This work discusses methodological aspects of the articulation and evaluation of behavioral theories underlying demographic policies. Such theories, called "policy theories" among other terms, may be defined as a group of hypotheses explicitly translated into predictions about behavior that underlie policy measures and that concern the relations between the measure and the objective to be attained. Interest in policy theories has been reflected in the writings of such demographers as D. Bogue, J. Blake, and T. Burch, and of researchers from other social science disciplines. 2 examples of policy theories from the Netherlands are presented to illustrate the discussion, 1 describing family planning communication programs that were intended to reduce the number of unwanted and unplanned pregnancies, and the other describing measures to increase availability of child care services in order to facilitate labor force participation of women and ultimately to increase the birth rate. Both theories are found to be comprised of 2 main parallel theories and several related hypotheses. Because political authorities do not usually make explicit the hypotheses that support political measures, their hypotheses must be articulated and reconstituted through attention to debates, written communications, interviews, and other means. The reconstitution must be done as objectively as possible, which implies the need to follow some methodologic rules. Examples are cited of principles advanced by researchers in management science, market research, and political science. 7 methodological rules or steps are then suggested for articulating policy theories: 1) identify statements relative to the political problem, such as excessive or inadequate fertility rates; 2) use the sources to identify reasons for undertaking concrete policy measures; 3) describe the role of the official in the political process; 4) inventory all declarations concerning the relationship between the objective and the means of attaining it; 5) make explicit the links and sequences left implicit in these declarations; 6) identify the normative declarations relative to the policy problem under study, and 7) try to classify all the inventoried declarations into "if-then" or "more-more" statements in a system of hypotheses where each hypothesis can be deduced from another hypothesis. Evaluation of policy theories is necessary and can be conducted according to epistemological criteria as well as criteria relating to implementation and strategy.
Marriage patterns in Guinea are analyzed using a sample of data from the 1983 census of 1,310 men and 1,812 women living in the city of Kamsar. Factors considered include ethnic origin, place of birth, age, religion, educational status, age difference between spouses, number of wives, and women's rank in polygynous households. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
Some general issues concerning world population growth are reviewed. The author notes that estimates of the world's carrying capacity have varied from 10 billion to 60 million billion. He attempts to summarize the limitations on population growth that might be imposed by availability of resources, particularly food and minerals. The importance of distinguishing between population size and rate of growth when considering the impact of population is also noted. The author concludes that the result of the race between population growth and increased food production in the developing world is still uncertain, particularly in Africa, and the problems of increasing food production are more economic, political, and ethical than technical. The role of the developed world in resolving such problems is assessed.
This work argues that international efforts to resolve the population problem have failed primarily because they have been based on misconceptions concerning the definition of the problem and the relationship between population growth and development. The demographic experience of the People's Republic of China since the Revolution is used to illustrate these commonly shared misconceptions. The difficulty of defining the population problem results from differing interpretations of the basic fact that poor population groups tend to have higher fertility rates and faster growth than wealthier population groups. The Western industrial nations maintain that peoples or countries are poor because they have many children; the solution to the problem would require that they be provided access to modern contraception and associated services such as population and family planning education. Many Third World countries argue on the other hand that people have many children because they are poor, a view implying that greater social and economic development will provide the solution. The disagreement as to whether rapid population growth is a cause or a consequence of underdevelopment results in part from viewing overpopulation and underdevelopment as separate and distinct problems. Results of several carefully conducted evaluation studies have demonstrated that very little of the world fertility decline in the late 1960s and early 1970s was attributable to national family planning programs. Research has shown that equitable division of national wealth, education--especially of women, some employment factors such as a lack of opportunities for children, and a reliable social security system are the most powerful determinants of fertility. The studies indicate that fertility declines are induced by models of development that stress widespread social progress rather than provision of contraceptives and associated services. Examination of the Chinese demographic experience suggests that it falls into 5 clearly identifiable stages, beginning with high mortality and even higher fertility until 1957, the Great Leap Forward and its aftermath, the demographic transition from 1969 to 1979, and the stage of renewed growth from 1980 to the present. China has followed 3 radically different development models since 1957. Its experience demonstrates that development policies that result directly in generalized improvements in social conditions in areas such as nutrition, education, employment, and social security are the fundamental determinants of fertility decline. Chinese experience also suggests that when development policies are modified to stress national economic growth at the expense of social improvements, the need for children is also stimulated.
