Estonia lost its independence during the Second World War, experiencing both Russian (1940-41, 1944-91) and German (1941-44) occupation, which brought significant political violence, particularly in the 1940s and 1950s. This paper analyses the effect of these repressions on fertility, using two studies. First, we use data collected between 1994 and 2005 from surveys that included extended questions on the lives of respondents' parents, including their experiences of repression. Second, we use biographical data on Estonian men who volunteered in the Finnish army. Applying Poisson and logistic regression models, we demonstrate that severe political repression (death, long-term imprisonment, deportation, and/or exile) reduced the fertility of cohorts who were in their prime childbearing ages during the 1940s and 1950s. We discuss these results in the wider context of the absence of a post-war baby boom in Estonia in contrast to those in countries that were part of the 'First World' during the Cold War.
Spain's fertility is among the lowest in the world, due largely to an increasing number of childless women. Childlessness, whether a voluntary choice or not, often results from postponement of childbearing. This delay could be driven partly by the increased instability of partnerships and adverse labour-market conditions. Using data from Spain's Fertility Survey 2018, we use multichannel sequence analysis to identify the most common patterns of partnering and employment trajectories and then assess the likelihood of remaining childless at age 40 for each pattern. Results indicate that pathways deviating from the traditional marital pattern are highly associated with childlessness. When these trajectories are coupled with high attachment to the labour market, the likelihood of remaining childless increases further. These associations are moderated by education. Partnership status is a stronger determinant of childlessness than employment status, especially for highly educated women.
Research on kinship and survival is well established in modern societies, but less is known about historical populations. This study examines the presence of children, siblings, and grandchildren in later life and their association with survival in pre-industrial Finland. We use records of 6,900 Finns born in 1740-1859 to estimate discrete-time hazard models for mortality at ages 50-90. At age 50, most individuals had at least one living child or sibling, although only one-fifth had a grandchild. Merely having a child or sibling did not guarantee better survival. However, men with both sons and daughters or with at least one grandchild experienced lower odds of dying. Having siblings, particularly sisters, became beneficial for survival after age 70. These findings highlight the nuanced role of kin, suggesting that their historical association with longevity varied by kin type and sex and by the individual's age and sex.
