Climate change poses an escalating threat to forest sustainability in transitional zones between semi-arid and semi-humid regions, primarily by intensifying tree mortality and hindering ecological recovery. In northern China, Acer truncatum Bunge and Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb., two native cold- and drought-tolerant temperate tree species, are widely used for afforestation. However, their future climatic suitability under continuous warming remains unclear. Using the Maximum Entropy model, we assessed the current and projected suitable habitats of these two species across China under three climate scenarios, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, and SSP585, with a particular focus on the four major sandy lands in northern China: Hulun Buir Sandy Land, Hunshandak Sandy Land, Horqin Sandy Land, and Mu Us Sandy Land. Occurrence records and environmental variables were integrated to quantify habitat suitability for the two species and their spatial distribution dynamics under ongoing climate change. Model outputs were used to identify shifts in suitable habitat areas, expansion–contraction patterns, and changes in habitat stability across scenarios. The results show that the distribution of A. truncatum is primarily shaped by precipitation of wettest month (bio13), elevation, and temperature seasonality, whereas Q. mongolica is mainly influenced by bio13, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of driest month. At present, the suitable habitat area is 9.30×10 5 km 2 for A. truncatum and 9.90×10 5 km 2 for Q. mongolica , accounting for 9.69% and 10.31% of China’s land area, respectively. Future projections indicate that both species will retain stable core distributions, with potential expansion toward northeastern, southern, and southwestern China. The suitable range for A. truncatum is expected to expand, with newly suitable areas accounting for 2.59%–4.69% of China’s land area, whereas Q. mongolica may see new suitable areas accounting for 2.25%–4.50% of the total land area, despite projected contractions along its southern margins. Within the four major sandy lands, both species were predicted to shift from peripheral areas to interior zones. Notably, potential suitable habitats for Q. mongolica may expand to the Hulun Buir Sandy Land under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios by 2090. These findings highlight the climatic resilience and ecological potential of both species and provide scientific support for climate-informed afforestation and restoration strategies in water-limited areas.
Land use and cover change plays a pivotal role in the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and carbon storage (CS). However, few studies have linked them within Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario frameworks. In this study, a patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model was used to analyse historical land use data alongside Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) dataset-based SSP-RCP scenarios, generating detailed high-resolution land use simulations for the years 2030 and 2060. The three scenarios, including SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, represent low-, medium-, and high-emission pathways, respectively. The Yellow River Basin (YRB) in China was selected as the study area, where we assessed city-level SDG indicator scores and estimated CS through the integrated valuation of ecosystem services and tradeoffs (InVEST) model. A Spearman correlation analysis was conducted to identify synergies and trade-offs among SDGs and between SDGs and CS. The results reveal notable disparities in SDG indicator scores across cities in the YRB. Under SSP1-2.6 scenario, the mean value of SDG 15.1F (forestland coverage) increases significantly, from 0.16 in 2030 to 0.23 in 2060, whereas under SSP5-8.5 scenario, the mean value of SDG 2.1 (land reclamation rate) is the highest among the three scenarios, and the value of SDG 11.2 (urbanization rate) reaches its peak of 0.23 by 2060. The ecological protection-oriented scenario leads to a marked improvement in CS, primarily driven by expanding forestland areas. Furthermore, synergies are observed between SDG 11.2 and SDG 2.1, while SDG 15.1G (grassland coverage) exhibits trade-offs with SDG 11.2 and SDG 2.1. This study provides an integrated framework that can aid in assessment of local SDGs and CS and offers valuable insights for the development of sustainable urban planning strategies amid future climate and policy uncertainties.
Climate change poses an escalating threat to forest sustainability in transitional zones between semi-arid and semi-humid regions, primarily by intensifying tree mortality and hindering ecological recovery. In northern China, Acer truncatum Bunge and Quercus mongolica Fisch. ex Ledeb., two native cold- and drought-tolerant temperate tree species, are widely used for afforestation. However, their future climatic suitability under continuous warming remains unclear. Using the Maximum Entropy model, we assessed the current and projected suitable habitats of these two species across China under three climate scenarios, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP)126, SSP245, and SSP585, with a particular focus on the four major sandy lands in northern China: Hulun Buir Sandy Land, Hunshandak Sandy Land, Horqin Sandy Land, and Mu Us Sandy Land. Occurrence records and environmental variables were integrated to quantify habitat suitability for the two species and their spatial distribution dynamics under ongoing climate change. Model outputs were used to identify shifts in suitable habitat areas, expansion–contraction patterns, and changes in habitat stability across scenarios. The results show that the distribution of A. truncatum is primarily shaped by precipitation of wettest month (bio13), elevation, and temperature seasonality, whereas Q. mongolica is mainly influenced by bio13, annual mean temperature, and precipitation of driest month. At present, the suitable habitat area is 9.30×105 km2 for A. truncatum and 9.90×105 km2 for Q. mongolica, accounting for 9.69% and 10.31% of China’s land area, respectively. Future projections indicate that both species will retain stable core distributions, with potential expansion toward northeastern, southern, and southwestern China. The suitable range for A. truncatum is expected to expand, with newly suitable areas accounting for 2.59%–4.69% of China’s land area, whereas Q. mongolica may see new suitable areas accounting for 2.25%–4.50% of the total land area, despite projected contractions along its southern margins. Within the four major sandy lands, both species were predicted to shift from peripheral areas to interior zones. Notably, potential suitable habitats for Q. mongolica may expand to the Hulun Buir Sandy Land under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios by 2090. These findings highlight the climatic resilience and ecological potential of both species and provide scientific support for climate-informed afforestation and restoration strategies in water-limited areas.
Ecosystem health is a cornerstone of ecological integrity and is vital for maintaining structural stability and functional sustainability under increasing pressures from rapid urbanization. However, the intrinsic coupling mechanisms within ecosystem health have not yet been fully elucidated, and its complex relationship with urbanization remains insufficiently understood. This study developed a multidimensional diagnostic framework that integrated a comprehensive, full-array assessment of ecosystem health using a coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. Then, the partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) were applied to analyze the impact of urbanization on ecosystem health. The framework was employed to examine spatiotemporal dynamics and interactive mechanisms between ecosystem health and urbanization in the Jialing River Basin (JRB), China, from 2000 to 2020. The results revealed an overall 7.25% improvement in ecosystem health across the JRB during the study period, with 73.04% of counties exhibiting marked improvement. Nevertheless, the overall coordination level of ecosystem health remained relatively low and exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity. While the northwestern region of the JRB achieved a coordinated state, the southeastern region of the JRB remained uncoordinated. Furthermore, urbanization exerted an overall inhibitory effect (–0.221) on ecosystem health, primarily driven by the demographic dimension (–0.332). The pattern and intensity of the effects from different urbanization dimensions on ecosystem health also varied over time. These findings enhance the understanding of the evolving interrelationship between urbanization and ecosystem health, and the proposed methodological framework provides a valuable reference for ecosystem management in other comparable transitional regions.
Against the backdrop of China’s strategic commitment to sustainable development, understanding the synergistic dynamics among ecological environment (EE), economic development (ED), and tourism industry (TI) at the provincial level is critical, yet this topic remains underexplored. To address this gap, this study constructs a comprehensive environment–economy–tourism (EET) evaluation framework utilizing panel data from 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions of China (excluding Hong Kong Special Administration Region, Macao Special Administration Region, and Taiwan Province due to missing data) from 2003 to 2022. Methodologically, this study integrates the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model to quantify subsystem interactions, spatial econometric models to identify driving factors and spatial effects, and the Grey Model(1,1) to forecast future trajectories. Findings indicate a marked improvement in the provincial CCD of the EET system over time, showing an overall upward trajectory toward improved coordination. A distinct spatial gradient emerges, with higher CCD in the eastern China and lower CCD in the western China. Spatial effects constitute a dominant mechanism, with ED and TI serving as primary drivers. Projections suggest a continued upward trend in CCD in the coming years (2023–2030). Overall, this study provides valuable empirical evidence and an integrated analytical framework to support spatially differentiated policy design and advance balanced and sustainable regional development in China.
