Introduction: Global warming poses challenges for economic decarbonization, highlighting the pricing of environmental assets such as the Decarbonization Certificate (CBIO). Objective: To analyze the influence of macroeconomic and market variables oil (WTI), natural gas, dollar exchange rate (USD/BRL), VIX index, and traded volume on CBIO price formation under the RenovaBio policy. Methodology: A multiple linear regression model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was applied to daily time series data spanning four years. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root and Engle-Granger cointegration tests were used to validate estimation in levels, along with the Breusch-Godfrey test for autocorrelation and re-estimation using Newey-West Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent (HAC) standard errors. Results: Oil, the dollar, and the VIX are statistically significant predictors of the CBIO price, even after correcting standard errors. Discussion: Sensitivity to external volatility and energy commodities links Brazilian decarbonization to global dynamics, limiting national autonomy in the face of external shocks. Conclusions: CBIO behaves as a financial asset sensitive to market variables, but requires regulatory mechanisms to mitigate exchange rate volatility in order to incentivize stable investments in biofuels.
Introduction: This article analyzes the socioeconomic and environmental gaps of the municipality of Aguachica, located in the department of Cesar, Colombia, with the purpose of understanding the factors that shape its territorial development. Objective: To identify the main territorial gaps based on educational, social, economic, urban, and environmental variables. Methodology: From a quantitative, descriptive, and longitudinal approach, official data on education, health, housing, public services, municipal value added, energy demand, land cover, forest loss, and surface temperature were integrated, complemented with geospatial information processed through Google Earth Engine and QGIS. Results: Progressive loss of educational coverage at higher levels is evident, along with relative stagnation in State Exams scores, urban-rural gaps in water supply, sewage, and natural gas, and high economic concentration in the tertiary sector. Additionally, environmental pressures are identified, associated with loss of tree cover, agricultural dominance of land use, and rising average temperatures between 2022 and 2024. Discussion: The findings engage with human capital, territorial development, and sustainability approaches, showing that social, productive, and environmental gaps mutually reinforce one another. Conclusion: Aguachica requires evidence-based public planning aimed at reducing gaps, diversifying its economy, and strengthening environmental management.
Introduction: This study analyzes the optimization of Peruvian mutual fund portfolios and the effect of the denomination currency on the relationship between risk, return, and diversification. Objective: To compare the performance of the Markowitz and Black-Litterman models in estimating efficient frontiers and constructing optimal portfolios for mutual funds denominated in soles, dollars, and an integrated portfolio combining both currencies during 2010–2025. Methodology: A quantitative, non-experimental, longitudinal study was conducted using monthly quota values of 31 mutual funds reported by Peru’s Superintendencia del Mercado de Valores. Returns, volatilities, Sharpe ratios, tangent portfolios, and efficient frontiers were calculated under non-negativity and maximum asset-weight constraints. Results: Soles-denominated funds showed greater relative efficiency; Markowitz produced more conservative portfolios and better Sharpe ratios, while Black-Litterman achieved higher cumulative returns in dollar and integrated portfolios, albeit with greater volatility. Discussion: The findings confirm that portfolio efficiency does not depend solely on the optimization model, but also on the denomination currency, the risk structure of the funds, and the evaluation criterion adopted. In this regard, Markowitz proves more consistent for defensive strategies oriented toward risk-adjusted efficiency, while Black-Litterman allows incorporating market expectations and shifting the portfolio toward higher potential returns, with greater risk exposure. Conclusions: Both models are complementary; Markowitz favors risk-adjusted efficiency, and Black-Litterman incorporates expectations to expand return opportunities.
Introduction: The measurement of subnational poverty is key for targeted public policies; however, surveys in Mexico lack representativeness at the municipal level. Objective: To develop and validate a methodology for generating municipal estimates of monetary poverty with explicit uncertainty measures. Methodology: This study presents the ALIVIO methodology, aimed at the municipal estimation of monetary poverty in contexts of low sample representativeness. A unit-level empirical predictor was employed, combined with an Intrinsic Conditional Autoregressive spatial structure. Estimation was carried out via approximate Bayesian inference, integrating microdata from the ENIGH 2024 and auxiliary variables from the 2020 Census. Results: The model substantially reduced uncertainty compared to direct estimators and enabled the generation of information for all municipalities, including those with no sample, and showed no relevant residual spatial autocorrelation in the aggregate diagnostics. Discussion: Spatial incorporation strengthened predictive capacity relative to traditional models, though it depends on normality assumptions and temporal harmonization across sources. Conclusions: ALIVIO constitutes a potentially robust, efficient, and replicable methodological framework for generating municipal poverty maps and prioritizing territories with low availability of primary data.
Introduction: In emerging economies, corruption can act as either a barrier or a facilitator of entrepreneurship. Understanding this relationship is crucial in contexts characterized by institutional weakness. Objective: To analyze the association between nascent entrepreneurship and exposure to bribe requests among college students in southwestern Colombia. Methodology: Quantitative cross-sectional study with a survey administered to 391 students between 2022 and 2023. Linear probability and probit models were estimated to calculate marginal effects. Results: Exposure to bribery is associated with a higher likelihood of being a nascent entrepreneur (13.93 p.p., expanding to 23.38 p.p.) among those with family business backgrounds. The relationship varies according to university valuation, negative among those who perceive a high contribution, and positive among those who perceive academic deficiencies. Discussion: The findings show the coexistence of grease in the wheels and sand in the wheels effects, suggesting that the association depends on the individual’s educational profile. Conclusions: Corruption distorts entrepreneurial incentives; reducing bureaucratic barriers and strengthening institutional ethics in higher education are recommended.
