Recent trends in internal migration in the Philippines are analyzed using data from the 1975 and 1980 censuses. The emphasis is on the volume and direction of regional migration streams. "The paper starts with the definitions of some migration-related terms. The second section discusses data and methodology. The third portion of the ensuing study deals with the trends and patterns of internal migration, while the last part is devoted to some considerations about population policies."
The interaction between economic and demographic factors in the Philippines was examined, analyzing the effects of investment in fertility control on the birthrate, population size, and such economic variables as gross national product (GNP), wage rate, and family income. A family planning model that was constructed and is used to project population program cost and births prevented is grafted to and simulated with a larger economic/demographic model. The simulation results are anayzed. The economic demographic model to which the family planning subsystem was grafted is a modified version of the model constructed by Encarnacion et al. (1974). It is basically a neoclassical model, a closed economy in which the real wage rate is determined by the intersection of the demand and supply of labor. The demand for labor is derived from a Cobb-Douglas production function on the assumption that labor is paid the value of its margin product, and the labor supply is determined by age and sex specific labor force participation rates and population. Capital accumulation is influenced by population size through its effect on government and private consumption expe nditures. Fertility rate is determined by duration of marriage and the level and distribution of family incomes. The model was used to develop projections from 1970 through 2000. Results show that the effects on per capital income and real wage rate seem significant, yet family income appears largely unaffected and the effect on the traditional investment to output ratio (I/Y) seems minimal. One of the outcomes of the projection without family planning is that, if the economy were to depend solely on its own savings, the average annual rate of growth of gross national product (GNP) would be only about 4.32%, which is less than the historical growth rate of 6% and the present government longterm target of 8%. The result suggests that foreign investments and loans would have to play an increasingly important role in the economic growth of the Philippines unless the gross domestic investment of GNP ratio is increased substantially. Aggregate output is reduced due to a relatively smaller labor force. Thus, it is suggested that if population control programs are accompanied by an increase in the labor participation rate, particularly of women, the payoffs from family planning may be larger. Closer examination of the nature of the payoffs from the family planning program would reveal that they basically stem from the decrease in the number of persons sharing in national output and not from increased production and saving. The observation suggests that population control does not necessarily lead to more rapid economic growth defined as sustained increase in total output.
As an aspect of household behavior, the decision of whether to have a child or not appears to be an appropriate economic problem: children have consumption and production values, and childbearing and rearing involves resources of time and goods. With markets for birth control techniques present, it has been argued that the decision to have children or not could be regarded as a choice problem. Some of the problems with the economics of fertility behavior based on the household production function resemble the problem that has been raised concerning efforts to mathematize economics. A few critical notes are made in this paper on the theory of the demand for children based on the household production function. On an analytical level, a major criticism of this model pertains to its adherence to the belief that the economic values of children are reducible to a single utility element. Its descriptive and normative worth are diminished by its silence on aspects of uncertainty and imperfect information. The assumptions of the household production function model are examined, focusing on the extent that the mathematical treatment is useful in describing the empirical reality it purports to explain. The examination covers the use of a real valued utility function, the substitution possibilities, and the representation of household activities by the household production function. The household production function model of fertility behavior assumes that the household maximizes a real valued utility function. Adoption of this assumption rests on accepting the idea that wants or economic values attached to children can be reduced to a single utility element. A review of the literature on the worth of children shows a recognition of the multiplicity of wants attached to children. Rather than adopting the assumption that wants are reducible to a single utility element, it would be more suitable to accept the irreducibility and a hierarchical ordering of wants. A more useful model of choice is one that recognizes a hierarchical ordering of wants and aims to satisfy the greatest number of wants in a lexicographic fashion. Instead of a real vaued utility function, a vector valued utility function is posited. The household production function model of fertility behavior, in its original form, makes no formal analytical treatment of uncertainty and imperfect information. It is argued that its silence on these issues lessens its positive and normative worth. Some existing market and nonmarket institutions seem best explained by considerations of uncertainty due to informational constraints. Uncertainty can arise even when contraception is both perfect and costless. Uncertainty about fertility status may arise also in simple cases where economic and social phenomena interact with biological phenomena. The presence or absence of information entails risks, and some of the economic problems of the use of fertility and birth control aids center on the allocation of the risks involved.
