ABSTRACT As geopolitical rivalry intensifies and pressures toward deglobalization grow, the systemic vulnerabilities of global production networks have become increasingly evident. Global value chains are shifting from an efficiency‐first model toward one that places greater emphasis on both efficiency and security, accelerating the regional reorganization of cross‐border production. Using industry‐level panel data covering China and 20 Asia‐Pacific partner countries from 2000 to 2022, this paper examines how cross‐national industrial spillovers affect regional value chain resilience. The results show that cross‐national industrial spillovers significantly strengthen China's regional value chain resilience. Mechanism analysis indicates that these spillovers operate through two complementary channels: they reduce bilateral institutional frictions and improve soft infrastructure, while also deepening China's digital embeddedness in partner countries and strengthening hard infrastructure connectivity. Heterogeneity analysis further shows that the resilience‐enhancing effect is concentrated in technology‐ and knowledge‐intensive industries and is particularly pronounced for partner countries with higher levels of political trust and greater geographic proximity. These findings provide new empirical evidence on the regional restructuring of global value chains and suggest that emerging economies can strengthen resilience to external frictions and production disruptions by developing regional production networks with politically trusted and geographically proximate partners.
ABSTRACT This paper examines the effects of a positive export shock on gender‐specific labour market outcomes using nationally representative household and firm‐level data from Vietnam. We exploit exogenous variation in provincial exposure to tariff reductions induced by the U.S.–Vietnam Bilateral Trade Agreement. We find that opening to export markets is associated with stronger wage growth for men than for women, widening the estimated gender wage gap, although we find little evidence of gender differences in working‐hour responses. Opening to export markets is also associated with workers' transitions out of unpaid family work and into formal employment. However, these responses do not differ significantly between women and men. By contrast, women are significantly more likely than men to transition into non‐manual occupations in provinces more exposed to U.S. tariff reductions. Moreover, a positive gender composition effect provides an additional channel through which trade shapes gender disparities. As complementary evidence, the firm‐level analysis shows stronger growth in female employment in trade‐exposed regions, while female workers are more concentrated in larger firms that experience lower wage growth. Our findings show that increased export market access can generate divergent effects along the employment and wage margins, helping reconcile conflicting results in the existing literature and highlighting the importance of heterogeneity in understanding the gendered consequences of global integration.
This paper examines the effects of climate change vulnerability on intra-African trade using data for 48 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2000-2018. Employing a structural gravity model, we investigate how exposure to climate risks, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity influence bilateral trade flows. Our findings indicate that higher climate vulnerability significantly reduces intra-African exports and imports, with the strongest adverse effects observed for manufactured goods. Sectoral analysis reveals that vulnerability related to infrastructure, ecosystems, and food security is the main channel through which climate change constrains trade. We also observe substantial regional heterogeneity, with West African countries experiencing the largest trade losses due to their high climate exposure and limited adaptive capacity. Robustness analyses show that the negative effect of exporter vulnerability remains consistent, whereas the impact of importer vulnerability is more heterogeneous across samples. These findings highlight the importance of investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and strengthening adaptive capacity to support intra-African trade and enhance the effectiveness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).
Gravity models constitute the workhorse of empirical international trade research, yet the temporal stability of their core parameters-distance and GDP elasticities-remains underexplored, particularly in relation to the evolving structure of trade networks. This study investigates the bidirectional Granger-causal relationships between gravity model coefficients and trade network topology using two complementary databases: the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output tables (1995-2020, 45 sectors) and the CEPII-BACI bilateral trade database (1995-2022, 97 product groups). We employ three methodologically distinct causality testing approaches-traditional panel Granger tests, Bayesian model comparison via Bayes factors, and Random Forest-based variable importance analysis-to establish robust directional relationships while accounting for potential nonlinearities. A key methodological innovation is the incorporation of fractal dimensions and local lacunarity distribution moments (mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis) as novel network indicators capturing multiscale heterogeneity, alongside conventional centrality and modularity measures. Using network-based dimensionality reduction (Generalized Network-based Dimensionality Analysis), we identify two to four distinct temporal clusters of sectors and products exhibiting heterogeneous gravity coefficient dynamics, with forecasts extended to 2030 using Bayesian ARIMA models. Our results reveal significant Granger-causal relationships between network structural properties and gravity coefficients, but the three methods diverge sharply in how much structure they detect: the Random Forest approach identifies three- to four-fold more significant sector-and product-level relationships than the two linear methods. At the aggregate level, centralization measures and heterogeneity indicators (lacunarity, fractal dimension) Granger-precede GDP elasticities broadly and consistently across sectors and products, whereas their relationship with distance elasticity is concentrated in specific sectors and product groups rather than operating uniformly across the aggregate network. Distance elasticity shows declining magnitude over the study period at the aggregate level, but substantial heterogeneity persists across product groups, with some clusters exhibiting stable or even increasing distance sensitivity. The cross-database triangulation confirms that these patterns are robust to alternative trade flow conceptualizations (gross vs. value-added trade). These findings contribute to international trade theory in three ways. First, they provide systematic evidence of temporal precedence-established via Granger-style tests, not structural causal identification-showing that the extensive margin of trade-captured by network topology-consistently leads the intensive margin reflected in gravity coefficients, consistent with heterogeneous firm models predicting that firms' entry/exit decisions reshape network structure before aggregate trade volumes adjust. Second, and most robustly, the documented sector-level heterogeneity offers a structural account of the 'distance puzzle': ICT and services sectors exhibit genuine distance compression through network decentralization, while heavy manufacturing maintains geographic constraints through persistent regional modularity. Third, the Granger-causal precedence of network fragility indicators over gravity coefficients establishes an empirical bridge between the production network literature on shock propagation and the gravity framework, with direct relevance for understanding supply chain resilience amid geopolitical fragmentation.
Using a state-of-the-art structural gravity model, we investigate the impact of various (post-)colonial cocoa trading arrangements on the cocoa trade between developing cocoa producer countries and rich industrial cocoa consumer nations in the time period 1951-1999. We find that in particular the trading arrangements of the European (Economic) Community (EEC/EC), such as the Association, Yaound & eacute; and Lom & eacute; Agreements, as well as the UNCTAD International Cocoa Agreement, had a measurable positive impact on cocoa trade flows, in contrast to the British Commonwealth partnership or the GATT Generalised System of Preferences. In particular, the Yaound & eacute; Agreement not only increased the trade between other EEC/EC members and the signatory cocoa producers, but also strengthened the trading relationship between the former coloniser countries and their cocoa producing former colonies, in fact more than offsetting the negative effect of independence.
