A Bayesian Network Framework for Comparing Project Delivery Methods

Public–Private Partnerships (PPPs) are innovative and evolving project delivery methods that have enabled public entities, such as local, state, and federal government agencies to pursue projects that were otherwise infeasible. Value for Money (VfM) is commonly used as a tool to evaluate PPP project delivery with traditional project delivery. In this work, a BN framework is presented for supplementing VfM analysis that allows for the combination of the quantitative and qualitative components of project delivery. The framework includes steps to develop BNs, analyze network scenarios and interpret the results. The proposed BN framework reduces the subjectivity and bias inherent in VfM assessment. It, therefore, has the potential to supplement the decision-making process. We demonstrate the application of the proposed framework to California’s Presidio Parkway Project as a case study. The results corroborate the findings from the VfM assessment and conclude that for the Presidio Parkway project, design–build–finance–operate–maintain is a better method than the traditional design–bid–build project delivery method.