A Calculus of Probability or Belief? Neural Underpinnings of Social Decision-Making in a Card Game

For decades, the prefrontal cortex (PFC) has been the focus of social neuroscience research, specifically regarding its role in competitive social decision-making. However, the distinct contributions of PFC subregions when making strategic decisions involving multiple types of information (social, non-social, and mixed information) remain unclear. This study investigates decision-making strategies (pure probability calculation vs. mentalizing) and their neural representations using functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) data collected during a two-person card game. We observed individual differences in information processing strategy, indicating that some participants relied more on probability than others. Overall, the use of pure probability decreased over time in favor of other types of information (e.g., mixed information), with this effect being more pronounced within-round trials than across rounds. In the brain, (1) the lateral PFC activates when decisions are driven by probability calculations; (2) the right lateral PFC responds to trial difficulty; and (3) the anterior medial PFC is engaged when decision-making involves mentalizing. Furthermore, neural synchrony, which reflects the real-time interplay between individuals' cognitive processes, did not consistently contribute to correct decisions and fluctuated throughout the experiment, suggesting a hierarchical mentalizing mechanism at work.