An Empirical Study of the Dynamics of Collective Employee Turnover and Its Implications for Dismissal Policy-Evidence from a Distribution Center

Although collective turnover has garnered growing scholarly attention within strategic human resource management (SHRM), prior research has predominantly focused on its organizational consequences while overlooking its compositional nuances (i.e., the distinction between voluntary and involuntary turnover) and dynamic interdependencies, an oversight with far-reaching implications for workforce strategy. Drawing on a decade of monthly employee turnover data from a large distribution center in Hong Kong, we find a positive relationship in voluntary turnover rates across consecutive months, providing novel empirical evidence for turnover contagion in labor-intensive logistics settings. Additionally, high involuntary turnover exerts a lagged negative effect on subsequent voluntary turnover, while elevated voluntary turnover predicts higher involuntary turnover in later months, uncovering bidirectional dynamics previously underexplored in SHRM literature. Building on these findings, we develop a stylized SHRM-focused behavioral model that illustrates how turnover dynamics shape contextually tailored optimal dismissal policies and firm profitability, offering actionable theoretical contributions and managerial implications for workforce stability.