Analyzing the Utility of Arrow 3 for European Missile Defense Using Footprint Calculations

After the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, missile defense systems became more prominent and sought after on a global scale. In 2023, Germany decided to purchase the Israeli Arrow missile defense system. This article derives technical capabilities of the Arrow missile defense system from publicly available information, with a focus on the Arrow 3 interceptor. This information is the basis for an analysis of Arrow's utility to defend Germany within a larger European context against existing and potential future missile threats from Russia. The interceptor's capabilities are assessed using a newly developed missile defense footprint calculation and comparison program. The program calculates trajectories of missiles and interceptors, and sectoral footprints. The results suggest that Arrow 3 is theoretically capable of intercepting Russia's current long-range and potential future intermediate-range ballistic missiles. It will be of no use against existing Russian short-range ballistic missiles and of limited use against existing medium-range ballistic missiles.