Energy-storage deployment in renewable projects is often assessed without considering when storage is manufactured and replaced, or how rapidly supporting grids decarbonize across regions. This study develops a prospective dynamic life-cycle assessment framework to evaluate the climate value of floating photovoltaic (FPV)-storage systems across China’s provincial grids. The framework links province-specific grid decarbonization trajectories with year-specific life-cycle emissions from FPV systems coupled with lithium iron phosphate batteries (LFP), vanadium redox flow batteries (VRFB), and pumped hydro storage (PHS), and quantifies net climate benefit using marginal carbon abatement efficiency (MCAE). Accounting for temporal changes in grid carbon intensity during storage replacement substantially revises replacement-phase emissions relative to static assessment. Results reveal strong spatial heterogeneity in storage climate value. Under the modelling assumptions adopted here, PHS generally achieves the highest MCAE, followed by LFP and VRFB. In hydropower-dominated low-carbon provinces such as Sichuan, MCAE can become negative, indicating that adding storage to FPV systems may increase rather than reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions. The zero-benefit analysis suggests a model-dependent grid carbon-intensity screening zone of approximately 0.14–0.24 kg CO2/kWh under the tested sensitivity range, rather than a generally applicable threshold. These findings indicate that uniform storage mandates may misallocate decarbonization effort, and that storage deployment should be differentiated according to regional grid conditions, storage technology, and deployment timing.
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