Continuous, Probabilistic Variant Interpretation with Bayesian Graphical Models

Abstract Introduction: Current variant classification (VC) frameworks rely on rules-based approaches that use heuristic weighting of various types of evidence, resulting in > 50% of variants being classified as variants of uncertain significance (VUS), and leaving many patients with uncertainty about their disease risk or diagnosis. We propose a probabilistic and scalable Bayesian approach to model the causal relationships between various types of evidence. A fully quantitative system maximizes the utility and integration of various evidence types, empowering clinicians to make more nuanced management decisions. Methods: Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) are uniquely suited to the needs of clinical VC. Two different component PGMs were developed to model two of the evidence categories that will ultimately be used in a comprehensive VC system: population allele frequency (Population PGM) and reported phenotype observations (Reported Phenotype PGM). Results: The Population PGM treats population allele frequency observations as a binomial process. By conditioning the model on partial observations, the probabilistic relationships between pathogenicity and allele frequencies can be estimated while stochastic variational inference allows uncertainty to be efficiently propagated. The resulting model performs well across a large number of genes at inferring pathogenicity of a variant from its allele frequency, with an average precision of >99% for benign variants. In the Reported Phenotype PGM, phenotypic features characteristic of a disorder are learned from patients expected to be affected based on genotype. Patient-level predictions are in turn combined at the variant level to derive variant pathogenicity likelihoods. To date, models representing at least 102 inherited conditions and 259 genes have demonstrated high predictive performance (>0.8 AUROC) for both patient-level and variant-level predictions. Finally, as a proof-of-concept, we demonstrate how each component PGM can be combined into a probabilistic Bayesian VC framework that also includes protein structure and stability, evolutionary conservation, and sequence context. This framework has high concordance with known, well-accepted pathogenic and benign variants classified with rules-based systems, and could make high-confidence predictions for many variants currently classified as VUS. Conclusion: We present a Bayesian approach that can integrate diverse types of evidence to achieve high VC accuracy while quantifying uncertainty. Future expansion of this Bayesian framework to all evidence types relevant to VC may allow for more accurate risk management guidelines and further inform medical and genetic counseling recommendations. Citation Format: Wolfgang Michael Korn, Yuya Kobayashi, Flavia M. Facio, Arun Nampally, Keith Nykamp, Robert Nussbaum, Alexandre Colavin, Britt Johnson, Toby Manders. Continuous, probabilistic variant interpretation with Bayesian graphical models [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 792.