Discrepancies in Trade Statistics in 2003-2024: the Impact of Sanctions

This paper is aimed at quantitatively assessing changes in the quality of international trade statistics over the last 22 years and the impact of trade sanctions on the discrepancies between direct and mirror data. Using bilateral flows classified by 2-digit HS codes for all available nations, we find discrepancies declined until 2019, then surged amid recent global shocks. Panel analysis reveals sanctions' dual effect. Sanctioned countries show lower discrepancies, suggesting stricter customs enforcement reduces errors. Conversely, sanction-imposing nations exhibit higher discrepancies, indicating statistical opacity shifts to complex supply chains and re-export hubs used to circumvent restrictions.