Domestic Transmission Belts and the Variance of Dual Alignment: a Neoclassical Realist Analysis of ASEAN’S Response to Multipolarity

IntroductionAs the global order fractures into a competitive multipolar system driven by the US-China trade war, middle powers in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are increasingly pursuing dual alignment strategies. These nations are simultaneously engaging with Western-led institutions like the OECD and non-Western revisionist blocs like BRICS. However, while systemic structural pressures remain uniform across the region, their strategic responses exhibit significant variance.MethodsTo explain this variance, this study employs a neoclassical realist framework centered on the state apparatus and political economy. It conducts a comparative analysis of four ASEAN nations: Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand. By treating global economic tensions and BRICS expansion as constant external variables, the research evaluates how domestic transmission belts—specifically domestic political economy, elite cohesion, and state resource extraction capacity—shape foreign policy outputs.ResultsThe analysis reveals divergent strategic paths. Indonesia’s dynamic balancing of nationalist and technopopulist elites drives a high-risk trajectory, simultaneously pursuing full BRICS membership and OECD accession. Conversely, the other three nations adopt risk-averse partnership models due to distinct domestic constraints. Malaysia is constrained by its entrenched semiconductor lobby, Vietnam by its consensus-driven politburo, and Thailand by its urgent need to escape the middle-income trap.DiscussionThe findings indicate that domestic transmission belts crucially filter systemic structural pressures. This study concludes that domestic vulnerabilities and internal economic imperatives, rather than overarching global shifts, are the primary determinants dictating how middle powers navigate contemporary great power competition and institutional alignment.