Early Modeling of the Upcoming Landsat Next Constellation for Soybean Yield Prediction under Varying Levels of Water Availability

The upcoming Landsat Next will provide more frequent land surface observations at higher spatial and spectral resolutions that will greatly benefit the agricultural sector. Early modeling of the upcoming Landsat Next products for soybean yield prediction is essential for long-term satellite monitoring strategies. In this context, this article evaluates the contribution of Landsat Next’s improved spectral resolution for soybean yield prediction under varying levels of water availability. Ground-based hyperspectral data collected over five cropping seasons at the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation were resampled to Landsat Next spectral resolution. The spectral dataset (n = 384) was divided into calibration and external validation datasets and investigated using three strategies for soybean yield prediction: (1) using the reflectance from each spectral band; (2) using existing and new vegetation indices developed based on three general equations: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI-like), Band Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI-like), and Band Difference Vegetation Index (DVI-like), replacing the traditional spectral bands by all possible combinations between two bands for index calculation; and (3) using a partial least squares regression (PLSR) model composed of all Landsat Next spectral bands, in comparison to PLSR models using Landsat OLI and Sentienel-2 MSI bands. The results show the distribution of the new spectral bands over the most prominent changes in leaf reflectance due to water deficit, particularly in the visible and shortwave infrared spectrum. (1) Band 18 (centered at 1610 nm) had the highest correlation with yield (R2 = 0.34). (2) A new vegetation index, called Normalized Difference Shortwave Vegetation Index (NDSWVI), is proposed and calculated from bands 19 and 20 (centered at 2028 and 2108 nm). NDSWVI showed the best performance (R2 = 0.37) compared to traditional existing and new vegetation indices. (3) The PLSR model gave the best results (R2 = 0.65), outperforming the Landsat OLI and Sentinel-2 MSI sensors. The improved spectral resolution of Landsat Next is expected to contribute to improved crop monitoring, especially for soybean crops in Brazil, increasing the sustainability of the production systems and strengthening food security in Brazil and globally.