EMPEROR-Preserved Risk Model and Outcomes in the FINEARTS-HF Trial: A Prespecified Secondary Analysis of FINEARTS-HF.

Importance:Patients with heart failure (HF) and mildly reduced ejection fraction (HFmrEF) or preserved EF (HFpEF) show substantial heterogeneity in prognosis. Objectives:To evaluate the performance of biomarker-driven prognostic models derived from the Empagliflozin Outcome Trial in Patients With Chronic Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (EMPEROR-Preserved) Trial in the Finerenone Trial to Investigate Efficacy and Safety Superior to Placebo in Patients With Heart Failure (FINEARTS-HF) and to examine whether baseline risk modified the therapeutic effect of finerenone. Design, Setting, and Participants:This is a prespecified secondary analysis of the FINEARTS-HF trial, which was conducted across 653 sites in 37 countries among adults aged 40 years and older with symptomatic HF and left ventricular EF (LVEF) of 40% or greater. Patients were randomized between September 2020 and January 2023, and data analysis for this study was conducted from September to October 2025. The median (IQR) follow-up period was 32 (23-37) months. Intervention:Finerenone (titrated to 20 mg or 40 mg) or placebo. Main Outcomes and Measures:EMPEROR-Preserved risk scores for the outcomes of first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death were calculated in FINEARTS-HF using models incorporating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, New York Heart Association functional class, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and diabetes, insulin use, and-depending on outcome-age, hemoglobin and albumin levels, HF duration, time from prior HF hospitalization, and sodium-glucose transporter 2 inhibitor use. Estimated risks were compared with observed event rates, and model performance was assessed using Harrell C statistic. Treatment effects were evaluated across risk quintiles (Q1 to Q5) and across the continuous risk distribution. Results:Among 6001 patients (mean [SD] age, 72.0 [9.6] years; 2732 [45.5%] women; 3003 randomized to finerenone and 2998 randomized to placebo), the EMPEROR-Preserved risk model estimated risk of outcomes, with Q5 vs Q1 hazard ratios (HRs) of 10.49 (95% CI, 8.14-13.52) for the composite of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death and 13.47 (95% CI, 8.79-20.64) for cardiovascular death. The model demonstrated good discrimination. The treatment effect of finerenone was consistent across risk quintiles for first HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death (Q1: HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.58-1.49]; Q2: HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.76-1.43]; Q3: HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.62-1.07]; Q4: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.65-1.01]; and Q5: HR, 0.88 [95% CI, 0.74-1.05]; P for interaction = .68) and remained uniform across the continuous risk spectrum. Conclusions and Relevance:The EMPEROR-Preserved risk models demonstrated good performance in FINEARTS-HF. Baseline risk did not modify the relative treatment effect of finerenone. Trial Registration:ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04435626.