Estimating Climate Sensitivity Using Bayesian Model Averaging for CMIP Models

The Transient Climate Response to cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE) is a key metric for linking greenhouse gas emissions to global temperature change and informing climate policy. However, extant estimates of the TCRE often depend on subjective model selection or assumed sensitivity ranges, with limited validation against observed data. We develop a fully statistical data-driven approach using a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach to estimate the TCRE. This uses 37 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), weighted according to their consistency with observed temperature data. Compared to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) TCRE estimate, our BMA approach yields a very likely range (90