Abstract Mediterranean hurricanes, or “Medicanes,” are rare, tropical-like cyclones producing intense rainfall and posing significant hazards to coastal populations. This study estimates medicane precipitation hazards using a statistical-deterministic approach that generates synthetic tracks from reanalysis data and global climate models. Coupling these tracks with the Tropical Cyclone Rainfall (TCR) algorithm, the precipitation field for each synthetic event is calculated, enabling spatially and temporally resolved hazard assessments. Validation against ERA5, satellite products, and surface observations confirms the model’s performance, particularly in coastal regions, despite a localized rainfall underestimation in the Central Mediterranean Sea. Sensitivity analyses (via track sub-sampling and TCR-ERA5 coupling) reveal that this discrepancy is not driven by sample size or the rainfall algorithm, but likely by synthetic track-generation or input data limitations. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, projected future changes indicate a marked increase in rainfall extremes: 100-year return period rainfall is expected to increase by up to 140 mm along the Adriatic coast, 250-year events by up to 160 mm, and 500-year events may exceed 800 mm total rainfall in some areas. In particular, regions such as southern Italy, northern Algeria, Sardinia, and Corsica are expected to see an increase of 100–160 mm in extreme Medicane-induced rainfall. Conversely, no substantial change is projected over southern Greece. This methodology offers a robust framework for quantifying hydrological impacts of low-frequency, high-impact storms in the Mediterranean. Our findings underscore the potential for more destructive rainfall events under climate change, highlighting the urgent need for enhanced monitoring, improved local observational networks, and targeted adaptation strategies.
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