Evaluation of Groundwater Development Potential by Using System Dynamics Modeling

Groundwater in aquifers is a very important resource that can flow over long distances to meet the needs of areas that require it. However, its existence beneath the surface requires a good understanding of the water system to manage it properly. This study aimed to develop a system dynamics model to analyze the impact of water balance on the sustainability of groundwater resource development in Parepare, Indonesia. Meeting urban water needs through groundwater use is approximately 4,526,864 m³/year, significantly larger than surface water at 2,799,948 m³/year. System dynamics modeling was conducted using STELLA 10.0.4, with a 10-year simulation period. The research results show that this area experiences a rainy season for 9 months and a dry season for 3 months, but groundwater recharge occurs only for 6 months, with recharge potential ranging from 85,858 m3/month to 62,885,852 m3/month. Based on the results of the system dynamics modeling, the potential for groundwater recharge remains very high, supporting the development of new groundwater production wells to meet the water shortage, with a capacity of 239,208 m3/month.