Global Climate Change-Driven Poleward Shifts in Suitable Habitat Distribution and Niche Differentiation of Benthic Euryhaline Lateolabrax Species.

Understanding species' response mechanisms to climate change is fundamental for predicting future biodiversity patterns and formulating conservation strategies. This study utilized the Maxent model to examine the effects of global warming on the suitable habitat distribution of representative benthic euryhaline Lateolabrax species. By integrating current environmental variables with projected data under four future climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5), we predicted changes in their suitable habitats, centroid shifts, and niche overlaps. The results revealed that the suitable habitat of L. maculatus is primarily shaped by primary productivity and distance offshore; L. japonicus shows sensitivity to maximum light intensity and seawater temperature; whereas offshore distance and seawater iron ion concentration are key determinants for L. latus. Among the three species, L. latus demonstrated the greatest adaptability, maintaining a relatively stable and even expanding suitable habitat under future climate scenarios, with minimal adverse effects from global warming. In contrast, suitable habitat areas for L. maculatus and L. japonicus exhibited varying degrees of contraction. Over time, niche overlap-including both ecological niche and geographic range overlap-generally decreased among the three species, indicating enhanced niche differentiation and spatial segregation. Additionally, the distribution centroids of L. japonicus and L. maculatus shifted poleward, with L. maculatus experiencing the largest centroid shift-approximately 1793 km northward under the 2100 RCP8.5 scenario. This study provides valuable scientific insights into the responses of Lateolabrax species to climate change and their projected distributional dynamics, offering a critical foundation for the conservation and sustainable management of Lateolabrax resources.