Global Harms, Local Profits: How the Uneven Costs of Natural Disasters Affect Support for Green Political Platforms

Abstract Large‐scale fires are becoming increasingly common due to climate change. While conventional wisdom suggests that firsthand experiences with natural disasters foster green coalitions by raising awareness of environmental degradation, we propose an alternative view: Natural disasters can heighten the perceived trade‐off between economic development and environmental policies. This study examines the case of Brazil, where large‐scale fires, by clearing natural vegetation, create new opportunities for land grabbing and the expansion of agriculture and livestock production. Using satellite, administrative, and electoral data, we provide evidence that large‐scale fires increase support for green candidates only in municipalities that are unlikely to reap economic benefits from fires. Survey data further indicate that voters prioritize environmental protection over economic growth only when they stand to receive limited or no benefit from the newly cleared land. Our findings suggest that the potential for natural disasters to foster green coalitions is contingent upon distributive concerns.