The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 aims to mitigate the impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) on native biodiversity, by strengthening the implementation of the EU IAS Regulation. A central component of this Regulation is the establishment of a list of IAS of Union concern, which is updated periodically through decisions made by the European Commission and Member States, informed by risk assessments aligning with agreed minimum standards and conducted by the European Commission or the Member States themselves. To support these updates, an EU-level horizon scanning for species that could be considered for listing was undertaken, aiming to identify at least 100 species likely to arrive, establish, spread and have an impact on native biodiversity or ecosystem services within the next ten years. Species were assessed by experts within five thematic groups: plants, marine species, freshwater invertebrates, terrestrial invertebrates, and vertebrates. A long list of relevant species was collated from various sources, such as species lists from global horizon scanning exercises and databases. This longlist was subsequently enriched with information on species occurrence in EU Member States using a data-driven pipeline based on the Global Biodiversity Information Facility. Species with a lack of robust distribution data and widely spread species, defined as occurring in three or more 50 × 50 km grid cells in the EU, were excluded. The same pipeline was used to derive a standardised measure of a species climate match with European climates under current (2001–2025) and future (2026–2050) scenarios, based on Köppen–Geiger climate classification zones (Delva et al. 2025). Wherever possible and relevant, this was integrated in the scoring sheets and maps were shared with the experts. After this, a rapid expert-based assessment of each species was undertaken, followed by a consensus building workshop to achieve a final list of prioritised species. The overall process resulted in a final list of 165 species being considered likely to enter and spread in the EU, therefore being recommended for prioritisation in developing risk assessments under the EU IAS Regulation Nunes 2025 a. Among these, 57 species were identified as high-priority candidates, showing the highest likelihood of introduction, establishment, spread, and impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services in the EU in the next 10 years. Many of these are already present in the EU, albeit in limited areas, underscoring the urgency of proactive management before they become widespread. Additionally, it is important to highlight the need for effective biosecurity protocols for those species that are currently held in confinement. The remaining 457 species considered for the workshop were deemed of lower priority; while they are not immediately recommended for risk assessment, they remain relevant for monitoring and early warning systems. To foster future horizon scans, the resulting lists were made available on an open data platform Nunes 2025. Possible challenges to listing species under the Regulation were identified and discussed, such as insufficient or uncertain data, low management feasibility or resource constraints, and push back by different stakeholders. Finally, we also identified 49 genera and six families that contain a disproportionally high number of invasive species, indicating a need for additional policy measures to prevent their negative impact on European biodiversity.
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