Impact of Seasonal Meteorological Variability on Malaria Incidence in Côte D'ivoire: A Retrospective Study (2021–2023)

Abstract Metrological variations strongly influence malaria transmission by affecting mosquito breeding and survival. Côte d'Ivoire, located within a tropical climate zone, is particularly vulnerable to metrological variations that can alter disease patterns. This study aimed to assess the relationship between meteorological variations of temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and malaria incidence in Côte d'Ivoire from 2021 to 2023. This was a retrospective ecological time‐series study that used data from the National Malaria Control Program (NMCP) and meteorological data from SODEXAM. Monthly data was analyzed by ecological zones and age groups. Pearson's correlation and multiple linear regression models were used to examine associations between metrological variation factors and malaria incidence. Malaria incidence peaked during the rainy season (May–August) across all regions, with children under five representing 39% of total cases. Precipitation and relative humidity were positively and significantly correlated with malaria incidence (r = 0.583–0.698, p < 0.05), while temperature showed a significant negative correlation (r = −0.539 to −0.600, p < 0.05). Interaction analysis revealed that the effect of precipitation and humidity was strongest in the northern zone, where malaria transmission risk increased significantly (β = 22.51, p = 0.01). Malaria transmission in Côte d'Ivoire is strongly associated with metrological variability, particularly rainfall and humidity. Elevated precipitation and humidity increase malaria morbidity, whereas high temperatures above 28°C suppress transmission. Integrating meteorological surveillance into malaria early warning systems can improve prediction and control strategies, especially among vulnerable populations such as children under five.