Impact of the Global Energy Crisis on the Energy Security of the Baltic States after 2022

The purpose of the study was to determine the consequences of energy market destabilisation after 2022 for the processes of autonomy of infrastructure in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. The methodology of the research covered the use of retrospective, content and analytical, structural and functional, and prospective analysis. Methods of comparative statistics, time series analysis, case studies, and cross-analysis were also used. It was established that the introduction of short-term fiscal instruments, in particular the establishment of price thresholds at the level of 12 cents in Estonia, the introduction of a system covering 50% of the cost of heating over the limit of EUR 68 per resource unit in Latvia, and the allocation of more than EUR 570 million for subsidies in Lithuania, helped to maintain internal stability. The results confirmed the complete rejection of imports via eastern pipelines, which led to reduction of inflation rates from 24% to below 3%. The achievement of full physical autonomy of the region through successful desynchronisation from the electric ring system (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and integration into the European network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity, which technically completed the process of getting out of the external infrastructure influence, was substantiated. The study revealed a radical increase in the role of private producers which independently generate a resource, and the active construction of offshore wind parks, which already meet a third of the region’s needs. It was determined that the purchase of a strategic vessel for receiving liquefied fuel in state ownership at the end of 2024 provided the system with the necessary margin of safety. It was confirmed that the level of filling of underground storage facilities has reached a record 98%, creating a reliable buffer against hybrid threats. The success of implementing intelligent network management systems has been proven, which reduced the number of emergency outages by 15% in 2024 compared to pre-crisis 2021. The analysis recorded the establishment of a new hydrogen corridor that turns the region into a supplier of clean energy for neighbouring states. The data obtained indicate a transformation from a vulnerable periphery to a centre of stability. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using its results by state governments and institutions of the European Union to develop strategies for energy sovereignty and protect critical infrastructure from hybrid threats