Impacts of the Russian Aggression on Forest Ecosystems in Ukraine and Identification of Key Restoration Areas to Improve Connectivity

The Russian invasion and war have severely affected ecosystems of Ukraine, resulting in extensive deforestation, habitat degradation, and biodiversity loss. As a result, ecosystems have been disrupted, ecological stability has been altered, and vulnerability to diseases and wildfires has increased. Conducted in eastern Ukraine, this study used remotely sensed data to monitor changes in the forest cover, assessed the territorial impact of the war on forest ecosystems, and identified critical forest areas affected by the conflict under different scenarios. The Sentinel-2 data from 2020 to 2023 was processed using the Google Earth Engine. Vegetation indices were calculated and integrated with the heat map of war-related events to detect important alterations in the vegetation and identify areas where forests have been destroyed. Five key areas for restoring forest connectivity were identified as well as the optimal restoration pathways, using the Restoration Planner tool. The northern regions demonstrated strong potential for forest restoration, yet restoration requirements differed across regions and scenarios. The analysis of restoration metrics showed significant regional variation, which facilitated the localization of regions with particularly severe forest degradation. Consequently, the presented study suggests that there is an urgent need for policy measures that focus on sustainable land use and forest conservation in Ukraine.