Impacts of Urbanization on Ecosystem Services and Sustainability Pathways: Empirical Evidence from Lahore, Pakistan

Rapid urbanization in Global South cities poses significant threats to ecosystem services and long-term environmental sustainability. This study quantifies the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes and their impact on ecosystem service values (ESV) in Lahore, Pakistan, over 30 years (1994–2024). Using Landsat satellite imagery integrated with benefit transfer valuation methods, the study analyzed LULC transformations and their ecological consequences. Results reveal substantial urban expansion, with built-up areas increasing from 31,700 ha to 67,900 ha (114 β =-0.028,p<0.01 ), rising land surface temperature ( β =-0.115,p<0.05 ), and deteriorating air quality ( β =-0.009,p<0.05 ) are significant determinants of ESV decline. These findings highlight the urgent need for integrating ecosystem service valuation into urban planning frameworks. The study proposes nature-based solutions, green infrastructure development, and ecological zoning as actionable pathways to enhance urban resilience. So, the study provides empirical evidence and policy-relevant insights for sustainable urban governance in rapidly urbanizing regions of the Global South.