Implementing Prospective Probabilistic Scheduling of Surgical Cases to Yield More Predictable Utilisations

We studied the impact of a prospective, probabilistic scheduling method to replace surgeon-led booking, balancing contradictory goals of maximizing theatre utilised time while minimizing risk of over-utilised time. Implemented in an NHS Scotland hospital, the study analyzed 2420 surgical lists across multiple specialties. The Infix Schedule tool used median and median absolute deviation (MAD) of historical case times to calculate probability of finishing within allocated times, targeting a range 80–90