Introduction: managing escalation in international crises

This chapter introduces work conducted by an interdisciplinary team of academics and policy analysts into the question of how interactions between adversaries in international crises can be managed in such a way as to avoid dangerous escalation. Focused primarily on great power competition in what has come to be called the gray zone, the researchers have sought to identify areas where classical deterrence theory is at odds with the realities of the contemporary conflict environment. Focusing primarily on the examples of Russia, China, and their proxies, the researchers sought to establish the best ways to shape behavior and manage escalation. We evaluate strategies drawn from the theory of immediate deterrence and escalation management through a multi-method approach. Key theoretical arguments are mapped to indicators that show both their overall and relative effectiveness, with a focus on those gray zone conflicts of greatest interest to the U.S. national security community. Where possible, results of analyses are discussed in terms of their relevance to the unfolding conflict in Ukraine.