Is There a Role for Firm Hydrogen-Based Electricity in Future Energy Systems? A Comparative Analysis of Firm Low-Carbon Electricity Options

Global electricity demand is expected to double as economies decarbonize, posing a dual challenge for fossil-based electricity systems: meet rising demands and transition to low-carbon technologies. Initiatives around the world have begun exploring the use of low-carbon hydrogen in electricity systems; however, research on blue hydrogen in different grid contexts is limited. This paper analyzes blue hydrogen-based firm low-carbon electricity and compares it with alternatives of green hydrogen, nuclear, and natural gas with carbon capture and storage (CCS). A new analysis framework and long-term energy-systems model are applied to Alberta, Canada, a jurisdiction with heavy reliance on natural gas. Ninety-two scenarios representing different technology mixes, technology costs, and carbon pricing were analyzed from 2025 to 2050. Of the technologies to supply blue hydrogen, autothermal reforming (ATR) was the most effective considering cumulative cost and GHG abatement together; however, all assessed alternatives to blue hydrogen were more effective. ATRCCS-based scenarios reduced cumulative system-wide emissions by less than 5 % by 2050, and had the highest marginal abatement costs ($161–$371/t), whereas natural gas with CCS scenarios reduced at least two times more emissions at lower marginal abatement costs ($7–$86/t). The next lowest MACs were from nuclear scenarios ($64–$94/t), then green hydrogen scenarios ($102–$107/t), with 37–39 % and 29–42 % of emissions abatement, respectively. Overall, findings suggest a limited and low-value role for blue hydrogen in future electricity systems, given the available alternatives for providing low-carbon firm electricity. These findings should be considered by decision makers when developing policy, allocating funding, and designing technology support mechanisms.