Leave-group-out Cross-Validation for Latent Gaussian Models

Evaluating the predictive performance of a statistical model is commonly done using cross-validation. Although the leave-one-out method is frequently employed, its application is justified primarily for independent and identically distributed observations. However, this method tends to mimic interpolation rather than prediction when dealing with dependent observations. This paper proposes a modified cross-validation for dependent observations. This is achieved by excluding an automatically determined set of observations from the training set to mimic a more reasonable prediction scenario. Also, within the framework of latent Gaussian models, we illustrate a method to adjust the joint posterior for this modified cross-validation to avoid model refitting. This new approach is accessible in the R-INLA package (www.r-inla.org).