Longitudinal Evidence of Cross-Lagged Relationships Between General Misinformation Beliefs and Behavioral Beliefs Related to Two Protective Health Behaviors among a Representative US Sample.

There has been growing concern about the potential negative consequences of misinformation on behavioral choices. The reasoned action approach, a theory of behavior, suggests that only the misinformation beliefs that are explicitly about the consequences of a given behavior will directly affect behavioral outcomes. Our prior research supports this claim. Still, this theory accepts that other misinformation beliefs-those that are not directly about the consequences of a behavior-might still affect behavior by shaping the behavioral, normative and/or control beliefs that directly affect the behavior. This study asks whether this effect is supported empirically. Using nationally representative longitudinal survey data, the present study provides evidence that general misinformation beliefs about the coronavirus at baseline (although previously shown to not have direct effects on behavior) were negatively associated with subsequent behavioral beliefs about the benefits of two recommended COVID-19 protective behaviors: social distancing (B = -0.21, SE = 0.04) and facemask-wearing (B = -0.26, SE = 0.04). Prior work has shown that these same behavioral beliefs were longitudinally associated with future engagement in the protective behaviors. Based on these findings, we consider whether misinformation beliefs are worthwhile targets for campaign messages.