Machine Learning Algorithm for Estimating Volatile Potato Market Prediction

Abhiram Dash,Pradeep Mishra, Madhu Chhanda Kishan,Soumik Ray, Bikramjeet Ghose, Anant Tamang,Walid Emam,Yusra Tashkandy, Adelajda Matuka

Potato Research（2026）SCI 4区SCI 3区

Odisha University of Agriculture and Technology

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摘要

In Odisha, potato is a key crop that experiences significant price fluctuations due to variations in production and market arrivals. This study focuses on the Banki Market in the Cuttack district, a critical trading hub, to forecast potato prices and arrivals, aiding farmers in crop planning. Data from April 2019 to May 2024 on potato arrivals and prices were analysed using machine learning models for prediction estimation. After outlier removal, artificial neural network (ANN) models, specially the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, and support vector regression (SVR) models with varying hidden layer nodes were fitted. Diagnostic test, the Box–Pierce tests were performed to validate the assumptions of error independence and normality. Models that met these criteria were evaluated using root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) to identify the best fit. TDNN(5,8) was chosen as the best model for arrival series with an improvement of 4.3

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关键词

Policy implication,Potato price,Support vector regression models,Time delay neural networks

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