Packet Loss Modeling and Forward Erasure Correction for LEO Satellite Networks

Low earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks are pivotal for sixth-generation (6G) wireless systems, yet their high-speed mobility induces frequent packet loss, causing severe head-of-line blocking delays under traditional retransmission mechanisms. While streaming forward erasure correction (FEC) can mitigate retransmissions, existing packet loss models fail to capture the unique dynamics of LEO networks, causing difficulties in the design and analysis of FEC schemes. This paper addresses this problem through the following contributions. First, based on real-world Starlink measurements, we reveal the inadequacy of conventional loss models such as those based on Markov chains. Second, we propose a Markovian arrival process (MAP) to model LEO packet loss. Using an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to fit Starlink traces, we demonstrate its superior accuracy over existing models. Third, based on MAP modeling, we show that the decoding delay of a typical streaming FEC scheme with fixed repair insertion intervals can be analyzed by approximating it as the busy period of a MAP/D/1 queue. Using matrix-analytic methods, we provide a numerical recipe to compute this delay. Simulations validate the precision of the model in predicting delay, offering practical guidelines for FEC design in LEO networks.