Performance and Economic Boundary Analysis of an Integrated PV–Solar-Thermal–Battery–Hydrogen System for a Cold-Climate Dwelling: A Case Study in Northern Japan

Cold-climate dwellings can face coincident electricity and domestic hot-water shortfalls in winter, when solar availability is at its lowest. This study evaluates an integrated residential system for Aomori, Japan, combining photovoltaics, evacuated-tube solar water heating, and battery storage with electrolysis, compressed-hydrogen storage, and a PEM fuel cell operated in combined-heat-and-power mode. Building on a screening-level annual-balance analysis, a coupled annual TRNSYS simulation with a 0.125 h time step resolved battery dispatch, electrolyzer part-load operation, hydrogen compression and finite storage, seasonal fuel-cell operation, and heat recovery. The results show that the principal value of seasonal hydrogen lies in improving winter supply adequacy, dispatchability, and heat recovery rather than annual conversion efficiency. Fuel-cell heat recovery increased the number of days satisfying the hot-water screening indicator—a daily mean tank temperature of at least 43 °C—from 221 to 332. A reserve-aware criterion identified a 225 W electrolyzer operating-power cap as the positive-reserve case; 205 W was near-cyclic with a negligible margin, whereas the original 475 W cap was substantially oversized. The hydrogen pathway remained markedly less efficient than direct photovoltaic and solar-thermal use, and the estimated storage hardware’s lower bound substantially exceeded the break-even capital ceiling supported by the annual operating value. Seasonal hydrogen can therefore strengthen winter energy adequacy and heat recovery but is not yet cost-effective at the single-dwelling scale under the investigated conditions.