Predictable Patterns of Protest: the Impact of Agricultural Cycles on Social Unrest in Kenya

This paper investigates how the agricultural cycle influences protest behavior in Kenya from 2000 to 2019. Using satellite data to identify the crop cycle and local harvest periods at the lowest available administrative level (wards) and geocoded protest records, we find that protest activity does not decline during the harvest period but increases with a temporal lag. A dynamic difference-in-differences specification shows that protest activity gradually rises in the two to three months following harvest, peaking around the onset of the subsequent agricultural cycle. These patterns are consistent with theories of opportunity costs and seasonal scarcity. While the opportunity costs of protest participation are highest during harvest periods, they decline thereafter and coincide with the lean season, when household food stocks become exhausted. These findings are robust across empirical specifications and contribute to a deeper understanding of the temporal dynamics of unrest in agrarian settings. They also highlight the importance of timing in the design of rural development and conflict prevention policies.