Probabilistic Forecasting Framework Oriented to Distribution Networks and Microgrids

In electrical distribution networks an adequate management is key for supporting the deployment of renewable generation sources and microgrids while extracting their maximum potential. Among the existing optimization approaches, stochastic and probabilistic methods are experiencing a growth in their use. However, one of the problems when applying these approaches is the complexity of creating and evaluating the quality of the required stochastic forecasts compared to deterministic forecasts. To mitigate this difficulty, this paper proposes a probabilistic forecasting framework that integrates model creation, their evaluation, and the selection of the best model for predicting. Additionally, two novel methods are proposed for creating scenario sets, and a new metric is defined for evaluating and selecting which model to use. The proposed framework is applied in a case study over a dataset of ten secondary distribution substations from a real distribution network located in Manzanilla (Spain), showing the effect of the selection criteria over the forecasting quality.