Deforestation in Brazil’s Legal Amazon increased sharply after 2018, renewing concerns about environmental governance and frontier expansion. Yet it remains unclear whether this surge reflected only higher forest loss or a deeper reconfiguration of land-use drivers. The study examines whether the relationships linking municipal deforestation to governance, climate, and agricultural expansion changed after 2018. Using a municipality-year panel covering 634 municipalities for 2010–2021, the study combines satellite-based deforestation data, municipal economic accounts, gridded climate indicators, and environmental enforcement records in panel interaction and event-study models, complemented by an aggregate break-date assessment and spatial comparisons between the arc of deforestation and the interior Amazon. The results are consistent with a post-2018 reconfiguration of deforestation dynamics rather than only an increase in forest-loss levels. After 2018, the already positive enforcement–deforestation association strengthened substantially, indicating a change in magnitude rather than a sign reversal. This pattern is consistent with enforcement actions becoming increasingly concentrated in municipalities under greater deforestation pressure. Baseline estimates suggest that precipitation becomes more positively associated with deforestation while temperature loses explanatory relevance. These climatic shifts are sensitive to specifications that absorb time-varying spatial shocks, while the agricultural channel strengthens mainly outside the consolidated frontier. The baseline estimates are also spatially uneven: precipitation is positively associated with deforestation in the arc but negatively associated in the interior. These findings point to a qualitative restructuring of land-use pressures and support policy responses that combine restored enforcement with spatially differentiated governance strategies.
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